{"id":2393,"date":"2010-10-24T00:26:47","date_gmt":"2010-10-24T07:26:47","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2011-06-16T12:30:43","modified_gmt":"2011-06-16T19:30:43","slug":"ssrn-statistical-undecidability-by-raphael-douady-nassim-taleb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2010\/10\/ssrn-statistical-undecidability-by-raphael-douady-nassim-taleb\/","title":{"rendered":"SSRN-Statistical Undecidability by Raphael Douady, Nassim Taleb"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>Shared by  JohnH<br \/>\n<br \/>\nRevision<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div>Statistical Undecidability\n<\/div>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<font face=\"Myriad Roman, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif;\" size=\"2\"><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/cf_dev\/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=453695\" style=\"font-size:14px;font-weight:bold\" title=\"View other papers by this author\">Raphael  Douady <\/a><br \/>Riskdata<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/cf_dev\/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=475810\" style=\"font-size:14px;font-weight:bold\" title=\"View other papers by this author\">Nassim  Nicholas Taleb <\/a><br \/>NYU-Poly<br \/>\n<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font face=\"Myriad Roman, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif;\" size=\"2\">October 12, 2010<\/font><\/p>\n<p><\/center><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<strong><br \/>\n<font face=\"Myriad Roman, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif;\" size=\"2\">Abstract: <\/font><br \/>\n<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\n<br \/>\n<font face=\"Myriad Roman, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif;\" size=\"2\"><br \/>\nUsing the metadistribution of possible distributions for a given measure, we define a condition under which it is possible to make a decision based on the observation of random variable, which we call &#8220;statistical decidability&#8221;. We provide a sufficient condition on the metadistribution for the decision to be &#8220;statistically decidable&#8221; and conjecture that decisions based on a metadistribution with non compact support are always &#8220;statistically undecidable&#8221;. There is  the need for a strong undefeasable a priori without which decisions are not statistically justified &#8211; an effect that is very significant for decisions affected by small probabilities. <\/font><\/p>\n<p>\n<font face=\"Myriad Roman, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif;\" size=\"2\"><\/font><br \/>\n<font face=\"Myriad Roman, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif;\" size=\"2\"><br \/>\nWorking Paper Series<br \/>\n<\/font><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Shared by  JohnH <\/p>\n<p>Revision<br \/>\nStatistical Undecidability<\/p>\n<p>Raphael  Douady RiskdataNassim  Nicholas Taleb NYU-Poly<\/p>\n<p>October 12, 2010<\/p>\n<p>Abstract:<br \/>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Using the metadistribution of possible distributions for a given measure, we define a conditi&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,445,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-feeds","category-papers","category-pdf"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2393"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2393\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3660,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2393\/revisions\/3660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}