{"id":2280,"date":"2010-09-11T22:59:26","date_gmt":"2010-09-12T05:59:26","guid":{"rendered":"tag:google.com,2005:reader\/item\/266aa92570e89e48"},"modified":"2010-09-22T00:40:50","modified_gmt":"2010-09-22T07:40:50","slug":"visions-of-tomorrow-response-to-nassim-nicholas-taleb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2010\/09\/visions-of-tomorrow-response-to-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/","title":{"rendered":"Visions of Tomorrow: Response to Nassim Nicholas Taleb"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Shared by JohnH<\/p>\n

This confused me as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

I wrote that a <\/span>technology, book, cultural practice, religion, drug, opera piece, fashion, that is, all nonperishable cultural goods, are likely (in expectation) to last as long as they have been in existence<\/span><\/strong>. So when you observe a technology, you can expect it to be in the middle of its life. This note explains the math behind the point.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Note<\/span><\/span>: This is an average across all technologies, a distribution, something probabilistic not deterministic: some <\/span>fool of randomness<\/span><\/em> wrote to me to wonder whether telephone land lines should be expected to last another century, another idiot tried to use my idea to compare Microsoft to Apple.This is a statistical framework for the dynamics of cultural uses.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Taleb expanded his initial assertion to a more general point that non-perishable goods could be statistically expected to be in the middle of their lifespan. Notice the italicized part (emphasis his). I\u2019m the \u201cfool of randomness\u201d to whom he is referring.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Yet Taleb\u2019s theory fails nearly any empirical test I can think of. There are plenty of examples of technologies which are almost certainly in their twilight (e.g. landline phones) and others which are probably closer to the b<\/span>egin<\/span>ning than the end of their lifespans (e.g. the World Wide Web). Given Taleb\u2019s previous response to<\/span> my inquiry about landline phones, I don\u2019t think he would dispute this. In fact, he says \u201cT<\/span>his is an average across all technologies, a distribution, something probabilistic not deterministic<\/span><\/span>.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

But if this is the case, <\/span>what good is the theory?<\/span><\/strong> I am racking my brain trying to think of any situation where it might be useful to know the average lifespan of all technologies (or books or companies), as opposed to the lifespan of a particular technology, but I am coming up blank. When we attempt to plan for the future, would it do us any good to know that the average technology can be expected to be around for, say, another 100 years? Of course not. We are only interested in specific technologies (or books or companies), and on that point, Dr. Taleb\u2019s theory is nearly useless.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shared by JohnH <\/p>\n

This confused me as well.
\nI wrote that a technology, book, cultural practice, religion, drug, opera piece, fashion, that is, all nonperishable cultural goods, are likely (in expectation) to last as long as they have been in existenc…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-feeds"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2280","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2280"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2280\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2300,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2280\/revisions\/2300"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}