{"id":2265,"date":"2010-08-31T08:07:54","date_gmt":"2010-08-31T15:07:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/statuses\/22624150643"},"modified":"2011-06-16T12:30:56","modified_gmt":"2011-06-16T19:30:56","slug":"nntaleb-finished-my-central-paper-httppapers-ssrn-comsol3papers-cfmabstract_id1669317","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/nntaleb-finished-my-central-paper-httppapers-ssrn-comsol3papers-cfmabstract_id1669317\/","title":{"rendered":"nntaleb: Finished My Central Paper http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>nntaleb: Finished My Central Paper <a title=\"Convexity, Robustness, and Model Error \" href=\"http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Links to pdf download page for:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Convexity, Robustness, and Model Error<\/strong><a title=\"View other papers by this author\" href=\"http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/cf_dev\/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=475810\" target=\"_blank\"><br \/>Nassim  Nicholas Taleb <\/a><br \/>NYU-Poly<br \/> August, 31 2010<br \/> Abstract:<br \/> This discussion makes the distinction inside the Fourth Quadrant &#8220;Black  Swan Domain&#8221; between fragile an robust to model (or representational)  error on the basis of convexity. <br \/>\u2022\tThe notion of model error as a convex or concave stochastic variable.<br \/>\u2022\tWhy deficit forecasting errors are biased in one direction.<br \/>\u2022\tWhy large is fragile to errors.<br \/>\u2022 \tHow economics as a discipline made the monstrously consequential  mistake of treating estimated parameters as nonstochastic variables and  why this leads to fat-tails even while using Gaussian models.<br \/>\u2022\tThe notion of epistemic uncertainty as embedded in model errors.<br \/>In  addition, it introduces a simple practical heuristic to measure (as an  indicator of fragility) the sensitivity of a portfolio (or balance  sheet) to model error. Finally, it sets an explicit path to conduct  policy based on robustness<\/p>\n<p>Working Paper Series<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>nntaleb: Finished My Central Paper http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,4,445,73,53],"tags":[205,98,262,83,1067,84,309,1066],"class_list":["post-2265","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-feeds","category-john","category-papers","category-pdf","category-twitter","tag-10-steps-to-making-society-more-robust","tag-nntaleb","tag-model-error","tag-nassim-nicholas-taleb","tag-pdf","tag-robustness","tag-ssrn","tag-twitter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2265","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2265"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2265\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2266,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2265\/revisions\/2266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}