Monthly Archives: September 2014

I am trying to provide a probabilistic structure for fasting…

Friends, for comments.

I am trying to provide a probabilistic structure for fasting in nature assuming meal frequency follows a certain power law of various thickness of tails and scale.

Assuming that nature has traditionally delivered food to us with some periods of famines, it is foolish to think that it would have irregularity at a single scale, say one a week, but not at a different scale. So if we are deprived of food once a week for about one day, we should also be deprived of food for 2 consecutive days every month (or fortnight, etc.), and for an entire week every couple of years.

Recall that we are calibrated for occasional deprivation.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QISldaN2dPd2VlMGs/edit?pli=1

via Friends, for comments. I am trying to provide a… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Ruin is vastly more affected by noise than by the potential benefits or the signal

This picture show the effects of the information ratio (that is, benefits/uncertainty or signal/noise) on ruin; ruin is vastly more affected by noise than by the potential benefits or the signal.
(Continuing the previous post).
The Precautionary Principle paper is here
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIbGFzOXF5UUN3N2c/edit?pli=1
The previous post has not been well digested as people still argued in about “benefits” not realizing the relation (many who did not seem to have read PP and repeated the Russian Roulette fallacy were zapped). Further, it looks like people are still mistaken about the concept behind our PP: it is NOT conservative, as it encourages (actually begs for) risk taking but confines it to safe domains.

via Timeline Photos – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Something people don’t get: more skepticism about climate models should lead to more “green”…

Something people don’t get: more skepticism about climate models should lead to more “green” ecological conservationist policies not more lax pro-pollution ones. Why? Simply, uncertainty about the models increases fragility (and thickens the left tail), no matter what the benefits can be in the right tail.
Added the section to the precautionary principle. Please discuss but stick to rigor and avoid buzzwords.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIUUthSzJqUnRPbDg/edit

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