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Is Mubarak Egypt's 'black swan'? – Business 360 – Blogs

Shared by JohnH

HatTip to Dave Lull!

I spoke to best-selling author Nassim Taleb on the phone who wrote the famous business book the “Black Swan,” which identifies situations that have mathematical multiplier effect due to their unforeseen power. In the 2008 banking crisis it was $60 trillion of exposure to vast leveraged debts that the financial system could not handle.

Taleb says the U.S. government made the same mistake with Mubarak that it has done with its large scale banks. It has funded him since the peace accord with Israel, so much so that he became too big to fail, and the only choice now left is to bail him out against the will of Egyptians themselves. This may buy some time, but similar to the massive exposure of a Lehman Brothers, Mubarak may very well turn out to be the next black swan.

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