Tag Archives: probability theory

Commencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016

Full speech here: Commencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016

Greed and fear are teachers. I was like people with addictions who have a below average intelligence but were capable of the most ingenious tricks to procure their drugs. When there was risk on the line, suddenly a second brain in me manifested itself and these theorems became interesting. When there is fire, you will run faster than in any competition. Then I became dumb again when there was no real action. Furthermore, as a trader the mathematics we used was adapted to our problem, like a glove, unlike academics with a theory looking for some application. Applying math to practical problems was another business altogether; it meant a deep understanding of the problem before putting the equations on it. So I found getting a doctorate after 12 years in quantitative finance much, much easier than getting simpler degrees.

Friends, I need help finding a PDF of AlKindi’s treatise

Friends, I need help finding a PDF of AlKindi’s treatise on decoding frequencies في فك رسائل التشفير fi 3ilm rassa2l al tashfir; about probability theory, or I am ready to overpay for a hard copy of the Arabic text.

BACKGROUND: Every book written on the historyt of probability theory is bullsly based on some historian claiming that modern probability was “discovered” by Fermat, Pascal, etc., falling for the mential bias that the first account they could find in a language they could read is the first account that was made. And people cite each others and perpetuate the myth. For instance Bernstein’s against the Gods theorizes that Arabsfigured out algebra but not probability. But in fact it is well known that in the Levant, Omayad era ~800 years before Fermat, there were mathematical methods to decrypt messages based on word frequencies. It turns out that Al Kindi in one of his treatises discusses “3lm al-Musadafat” , “the science of probability” and numerical theories of frequencies. The problem is that modern Arabic translates probability by “i7timaliyat” not “musadafat”, which prevented people from connecting.So we need the book. I would love to translate the right segments of it. The original manuscript is in Istanbul which I assume should be digitalized.

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