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Tag Archives: Phil Tetlock

Binary vs Vanilla Payoffs and Predictions: An error in the research/risk literature | Taleb’s MOOCs

Published on Aug 21, 2013Micro-Mooc on a paper by Taleb and Tetlock (one manifestation of the LUDIC FALLACY). There are serious statistical differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yes/no type of payoff, the “binaries”, and those that have varying payoffs, which we call the “vanilla”. Real world exposures tend to belong to […]

New paper with Phil Tetlock on the difference between the Thalesian and the Aristotelian…

New paper with Phil Tetlock on the difference between the Thalesian and the Aristotelian: On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure, With Implications For Forecasting Tournaments and Prediction Markets. On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure, with Implications for Forecasting…There are serious differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a […]