Tag Archives: Nate Silver

Saudi Arabia, IQ, U.S. Academia, David Graeber, TRUE WEALTH, Harari, Nate Silver,@BallouxFrancois, #RWRI 14 | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ou comment vivre heureux dans un monde imprévisible

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, écrivain, statisticien et essayiste, professeur d’ingénierie du risque à l’université de New York.

Taleb, le penseur qui va changer votre vie (pdf)

We discuss 1) the errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics, why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks, 2) how evidence based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks, 3) the risks of morbidity must be accounted for 4) how the dangers of vaccines do not scale.

@nntaleb What’s the betting market for Saudi Arabia before Nov 1? Permalink 2020-09-11 21:58:13

@nntaleb Beirut Airport. 100% go through PCR testing before entering, on top of the need to produce a 72h test. I believe that overactive testing (even if high error rate) + masks + constraining superspreaders effectively allow you to keep functioning. Cheaper than lockdowns. Permalink 2020-09-11 19:50:11

@nntaleb Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew then). Permalink 2020-09-11 19:44:41

@nntaleb Fuck, no. This is fake credentials to het benefits. Permalink 2020-09-11 17:40:19

@nntaleb En route to the Phoenician coast. I am told that this may prevent jet lag. Permalink 2020-09-11 14:54:44

@nntaleb 2/ Yes, nitpickers & other idiots, such a filter will fail to select people who got recently infected. But the point is not abt individuals, but the system. All you need is the growth rate to collapse. Fewer pple infected ➜ fewer pple infected ➜ Fewer Permalink 2020-09-11 09:53:28

@nntaleb CHROMOCLASSIFICATION is absurd, infused with political motivations & exploited by groups leeching on the historical suffering of a certain group. Instead use “historically disfavored groups”. Americans from Indian origin have the highest income, shd be excluded. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:44:56

@nntaleb On a transatlantic flight: every passenger & crew member must be COVID negative (w/72h test validity). Overactive testing is the solution. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:38:21

@nntaleb Ahla!!!! Permalink 2020-09-11 00:49:48

@nntaleb Ahla! Min wén hiyyé? Permalink 2020-09-10 21:15:48

@nntaleb This also confirms. But I initially got 1/48 analytically Permalink 2020-09-10 14:17:50

@nntaleb 1/42 Permalink 2020-09-09 20:17:26

@nntaleb Excellent! Permalink 2020-09-09 17:33:27

@nntaleb Something like an amuse-gueule Permalink 2020-09-09 15:34:59

@nntaleb The first Livias were Swedish and/or Swiss Permalink 2020-09-09 12:43:49

@nntaleb Qual è il tuo personaggio preferito in “Commissario Montalbano”? Permalink 2020-09-08 19:55:22

@nntaleb I like it that John Clesse likes my books. But I like it much much better that he both likes my books and hates Pinker’s. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/books/review/john-cleese-by-the-book-interview.html Permalink 2020-09-08 18:56:14

@nntaleb Doesn’t mean infinite mean deviation. Only that the 2nd moment is undefined. Can explain next #RWRI Permalink 2020-09-08 18:53:38

@nntaleb How many people on the *true* left disagree with this? Permalink 2020-09-08 12:24:50

@nntaleb All #Ponzi schemers enter a phase of denial. #RiadPonzi Permalink 2020-09-08 12:23:19

@nntaleb Too much diversity among doctors. Permalink 2020-09-08 12:07:53

@nntaleb Another interesting thing: Tower of Babel is migdal Babel in Heb. Same as “Majdl l 3a2oura” or مجدل عنجر @Marcellenassif @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-08 11:59:01

@nntaleb 13 ½ years after The Black Swan someone formally investigated my statement about the tail difference between SCALABLE (authors) and NONSCALABLE (dentist, prostitute) occupations. Permalink 2020-09-08 11:36:36

@nntaleb Swimming distance. Me too. Permalink 2020-09-07 18:45:33

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL CONFUSION DU JOUR: TOWER (πύργος) A Is the Homeric Greek πύργος origin for برج burj, (itself perhaps from Urartian) via Syriac ܦܘܪܓܳܘܣ or ܒܘܪܓܐ or is there a common root? [BrgiBorges, Borgia] B What is the connection to a) appearance b) divination [See below] Permalink 2020-09-07 18:40:21

@nntaleb Are you in Cyprus now? Permalink 2020-09-07 18:04:34

@nntaleb Block trolls. Permalink 2020-09-07 16:39:18

@nntaleb CLueless Permalink 2020-09-07 16:24:48

@nntaleb Summary thread. A forecast MUST account for its own error. Since small probabilities are convex, uncertainty raises them. Nate Silver & Phil the Rat🐁 @PTetlock didn’t get that ALL methods end up converging to the same price (Tetlock🐁 never understood the Brier Score). Permalink 2020-09-07 15:27:20

@nntaleb L tarjamé taba3 Google Permalink 2020-09-07 15:16:58

@nntaleb Friends, do we have data on COVID infection rates for flight attendants & others from exposures in airplanes? Thanks. Permalink 2020-09-07 11:15:53

@nntaleb We have plenty, in Greek and Latin. Permalink 2020-09-06 20:09:45

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, populations are not defined by nations. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-09-06 19:50:23

@nntaleb Jaydeh hiyyé modernista te3rib! Mni7a bleghghetna! Permalink 2020-09-06 19:23:51

@nntaleb Lebnen: Men l Ponzi lal Te3dir (Antifragility) by @BLebnene Permalink 2020-09-06 19:21:42

@nntaleb Much of the problems of modernity is taking religion literally and science metaphorically, rather than the reverse. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:47:21

@nntaleb “We” changes over time intergenerationally. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:43:39

@nntaleb 2) thread Permalink 2020-09-06 16:31:06

@nntaleb A Phoenician revival in Sicily when AUB trained-inspired Orientalistidiots-Arabista-mononculturistic fascists & halfrained thinktank losers are trying to repress it in #Lebanon as a “sectarian” thing. Permalink 2020-09-06 16:30:26

@nntaleb RWRI slides Permalink 2020-09-06 13:58:42

@nntaleb If you are going for squid ink, Beirut is better. If you are going for Data Science, another story. Permalink 2020-09-06 13:35:36

@nntaleb Block idiots Permalink 2020-09-06 13:34:50

@nntaleb Try the $49.95 worldwide guaranteed price at the Scribe store @zachobront https://thescribestore.com/collections/frontpage/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb Permalink 2020-09-06 12:37:19

@nntaleb Squid ink in Cyprus is indeed one of the best. But Beirut’s squid ink is better. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:34:10

@nntaleb Bent’s reply. Never engage in a large scale project without looking at his work on overruns. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:28:58

@nntaleb Today’s tools used by IQ mongers such as the mountebank @charlesmurray (of the bell curve) have the same statistical validity as Le Bon’s cranium theories. And academics swallowed it. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:27:30

@nntaleb In a lectshur presenting AF Permalink 2020-09-06 12:22:42

@nntaleb God created IQ psychologists and economists such as @GarettJones so we can teach classes on their mistakes & teach how to not be fooled by data. #RWRI PS- National IQ is a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:59:16

@nntaleb You must make lemonade out of every lemon. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:44:43

@nntaleb 2ri 3an Wittgenstein’s Private Language Argument katabo Saul Kripke. Permalink 2020-09-05 22:25:29

@nntaleb I want to help! Permalink 2020-09-05 21:57:42

@nntaleb Not with a good risk management system Permalink 2020-09-05 20:32:42

@nntaleb No, the first is the right one. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:29:46

@nntaleb Not quite true: It had to be a synonym in Classical Arabic at the time of Mutanabbi, as shown in his famous poem against the then ruler of Egypt. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:27:48

@nntaleb Farayya. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:23:28

@nntaleb Friends, does Jan 11-22 work for #RWRI 15? Permalink 2020-09-05 19:05:40

@nntaleb Harry has an exemption. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:57:11

@nntaleb Also it was in jest. Paganism does not have a definition. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:43:33

@nntaleb Thanks Bent!!! Permalink 2020-09-05 17:15:34

@nntaleb Not yet Permalink 2020-09-05 16:32:04

@nntaleb South Italy is East Med: same culture same people Permalink 2020-09-05 16:29:34

@nntaleb If you don’t like truth, fuck off. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:20:51

@nntaleb Do you realize that Spanish will soon be banned? Permalink 2020-09-05 16:16:35

@nntaleb I admire his Gadness but he lives in the wrong place. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:15:18

@nntaleb Why I bailed out of U.S. academia. Anyone who is still in it by choice is a moron & those trapped there for lack of other options are total losers. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:14:34

@nntaleb New York bagels are better. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:06:43

@nntaleb Went fast (unless there is a typo) Permalink 2020-09-05 14:53:27

@nntaleb Saturday morning relaxation in memory of @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2020-09-05 14:41:43

@nntaleb 3)#Lebanon #LebanonProtests #Bisridam Permalink 2020-09-05 13:52:30

@nntaleb Bent @BentFlyvbjerg, can you show us a simple graph of cost overruns for dam projects? You will be helping debunk the @Gebran_Bassil “helping the poor” narrative. Ignoring other tail risks… (Bent is THE world’s foremost specialist on megaprojects cost) Permalink 2020-09-05 13:42:21

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-09-05 13:21:45

@nntaleb The World Bank fragilista IYIs do not have a good track record in understanding the cost-benefit tradeoffs of such projects. The Besri Dam represents a yuuuuge irreversible environmental blight w/no tangible benefit, mis-marketed & misrepresented as “helping the poor”. Permalink 2020-09-05 12:23:58

@nntaleb You bet Permalink 2020-09-04 22:37:24

@nntaleb High variance != fat tails. Tails risks are no different from what they were before. Perception is a bit higher . Permalink 2020-09-04 20:40:08

@nntaleb You are a vile, despicable person, @Frances_Coppola. David Graeber’s body is still warm & he is defenseless. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-04 18:38:48

@nntaleb Blocked the idiot. Permalink 2020-09-04 15:18:28

@nntaleb COVID Risk Conversation with @yaneerbaryam. At the end I explain to Yaneer that my background is much nicer; he should add books or, better, hang cooking instruments behind him to make it more jovial. Permalink 2020-09-04 14:35:47

@nntaleb Alternative, if the typo is 1 Permalink 2020-09-04 14:08:10

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-04 13:22:54

@nntaleb The entire point of Antifragile is that we do not make decisions based on probability but a combination that ALWAYS includes payoffs. In that sense proba <<< time expectation [ergodic] So tried to Lindify by reversing the damage done by frauds, usually psychologists (Tetlocks). Permalink 2020-09-04 12:05:18

@nntaleb Morning workout. Please avoid special functions. Permalink 2020-09-04 11:03:37

@nntaleb Not necessary, implied for I not for II Permalink 2020-09-04 10:12:45

@nntaleb Covid Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://youtu.be/d-UKAjeXqPU via @YouTube Permalink 2020-09-04 01:28:09

@nntaleb 8 ½ years after #Antifragile. Not bad. Permalink 2020-09-04 00:12:30

@nntaleb La methode Salafi a cause des deites semites! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:28:51

@nntaleb Tshrin msh October! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:26:18

@nntaleb Fété7? Wéyn? Permalink 2020-09-03 19:57:35

@nntaleb Sleep well! I manage now between 7 ½ and 9 ½ Permalink 2020-09-03 17:57:26

@nntaleb Bataille Royale bil jazal. بس شوي هدّوا يا شباب في بروتوكول ! Permalink 2020-09-03 17:44:07

@nntaleb انا كمان ما بمبسط بهيدا الحرف Permalink 2020-09-03 17:42:15

@nntaleb David Graeber He was a real intellectual; very real: not one fake cell in his brain, not one fake bone in his body. He thought independently. He was monstrouly original. He had intellectual courage. The world seems much much smaller today than before Sep 2. David, RIP Permalink 2020-09-03 17:20:12

@nntaleb 3esh miyyé w sntein! Permalink 2020-09-03 15:45:23

@nntaleb Wrong also about many other things… Permalink 2020-09-03 14:59:16

@nntaleb How much does it sell for? Permalink 2020-09-03 14:58:43

@nntaleb Maybe “promoted” would fix? Permalink 2020-09-03 11:30:04

@nntaleb Hi, maybe some day but too hard to put together. Permalink 2020-09-03 11:23:00

@nntaleb Bear @Prof_BearB is a diplomatic & polite fellow saying what I have been saying in my own way (that is, less politely): that @sapinker is, scientifically speaking, a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-03 10:33:28

@nntaleb The red is… bottarga? Permalink 2020-09-02 21:31:08

@nntaleb Did you @STEPHENPUNWASI intentionally reverse the meaning of the tweets by @ndehouche ? Permalink 2020-09-02 20:43:55

@nntaleb Minute 9 he explains how it was modeled after Law School of Beirut https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/b044j7pd @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-02 19:56:04

@nntaleb The part Jewish… it was not too differentiated at the time. Anyway I read somewhere that the Talmud was an imitation of the Beirut disputatio method (given that the Jews wanted no Roman law, yet wanted to emulate). Will find source & revert. Permalink 2020-09-02 19:49:00

@nntaleb Harari was created so that psycholophasters like @sapinker seem intelligent. Permalink 2020-09-02 17:13:52

@nntaleb Why Severus Alexander? Permalink 2020-09-02 17:06:06

@nntaleb Actually this picture in Lebanon is close (a winery in the Batroun district). Permalink 2020-09-02 16:47:31

@nntaleb Yes, the preparation requires it! Permalink 2020-09-02 16:38:00

@nntaleb They would use a technology, medical treatment, squid ink recipe, or scientific result conceived by someone considered morally repugnant. But they will “cancel” an actor/politician/mediaperson/ standard academic. Let it sink in that some pple are both superfluous & v. dependent Permalink 2020-09-02 16:00:00

@nntaleb هيدا محتال فنّاص كمّل عليه Permalink 2020-09-02 13:23:47

@nntaleb Squares. Don’t work with infinite kurtosis. Permalink 2020-09-02 12:50:46

@nntaleb Preparation for my trip next week, my own “return to the Med”. https://twitter.com/Return2Med/status/1301112992575008768 Permalink 2020-09-02 12:36:06

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-09-01 21:29:54

@nntaleb Isaac Levy, RIP Permalink 2020-09-01 21:02:45

@nntaleb Clearly, @dvoshart is a fraud, beyond his lack of scholarship & technical knowledge. I leave it to Maghrebi people to debunk his representation of their heritage & his exploitation of African people to make a political point. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:15:39

@nntaleb Somewhat messy; may have a mistake. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:10:55

@nntaleb A bit messy but here Permalink 2020-09-01 19:09:41

@nntaleb C’est pas le sujet du livre. Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:50

@nntaleb Where was that? Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:17

@nntaleb Ils ont massacré le titre Permalink 2020-09-01 16:49:03

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-01 14:53:44

@nntaleb Imbecile, it means it is vulnerable to the smallest disruption. Permalink 2020-09-01 14:41:55

@nntaleb The pandemic is not “unprecedented”. What is unprecedented is: FRAGILITY + PANDEMIC Our economic system has never been more fragile, more stretched, more vulnerable to small disruptions. @octonion Permalink 2020-09-01 14:37:44

@nntaleb Staged or real? Permalink 2020-09-01 13:50:25

@nntaleb For those of us locked-in because of the rain. Permalink 2020-09-01 13:27:24

@nntaleb Mine were GrecoPhoenicians Permalink 2020-08-31 20:49:21

@nntaleb Some job openings. A Greek-Orthodox Lebanese can’t be 1) president, 2) prime minister, 3) speaker of parliament, 4) governor of the central bank, 5) head of the military. Permalink 2020-08-31 20:00:37

@nntaleb Fat Tony: “Hating Trump and voting for Biden aren’t the same ting” * * Ting means “thing” in dialectal Fat Tonyism. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:52:20

@nntaleb Distinction without a difference. BS. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:45:41

@nntaleb BTW for people listening to this ignorant photoshoot Voshart, this is a period representation. Here my pics from the original at the Met. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:43:16

@nntaleb Voshart, nobody cares about your opinion on matters of scholarship. Maybe about food, photos, etc. But not anything related to scholarships/AI/statistical inference/rigor. I do not care to win an argument against you. Just letting pple know you are a fraud. Enjoy taking photos. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:22:35

@nntaleb Time to revisit (for entertainment) the Nate Silver Ignorance of Probability given that “Kolanovic Says Trump Re-Election Odds Soaring, Prompting Nate Silver To Melt Down On Twitter | Zero Hedge” https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kolanovic-says-trump-re-election-odds-are-soaring-prompting-nate-silver-meltdown-twitter More papers on how to predict elections under uncertainty Permalink 2020-08-31 19:14:59

@nntaleb Often make mistakes in that direction. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:07:55

@nntaleb TRADERS LORE: life is about the increment. When one takes a hit, suffers a personal/collective setback, must not look back. Losers look back. Look ONLY ahead &, when back in the saddle, you’ll get encouraged, even thrilled by the slope/improvement (1st derivative). Stock vs Flow. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:43:56

@nntaleb Warning abt the Roman Emperor pictures. @dvoshart is a photographer; clueless about AI, conditional updating, genetics, etc. In other words, pretty much a fraud. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:30:30

@nntaleb @dvoshart is a fraud. KNows nothing about AI or conditional updating. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:29:07

@nntaleb Yes, but for other reasons than “rights”. Because there are more effective alternatives. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:59:54

@nntaleb (Pseudo)libertarian minds have the intellectual nuances & logical refinement of somewhere betw. the unicellular amoeba & invertebrate sea slugs. And of course no notion of scaling of collective risks/dynamics & iatrogenics. In short: what I usually refer to as “idiots”. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:58:20

@nntaleb Oui mais c’est la réaction après! Permalink 2020-08-31 16:44:45

@nntaleb Any idea how many centimeters? Permalink 2020-08-31 15:04:56

@nntaleb 🙏 for your safety. Permalink 2020-08-31 15:02:29

@nntaleb Il m’a répondu qu’il n’y avait pas de RV. Alors qu’il m’avait envoyé l’adresse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:59:59

@nntaleb Il n’a meme pas annulé. Je me pointe chez lui, on me repond qu’il est au Maroc. Meme pas d’excuse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:40:01

@nntaleb 8 pages au total. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:39:23

@nntaleb L’article intégral (mais il ne faut pas dire au Point que je partage…) https://fooledbyrandomness.com/LePoint2020.pdf https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1299987146217058305 Permalink 2020-08-31 13:37:32

@nntaleb Elle etait presente. Il m’a posé un lapin une fois a Paris. L’année suivante je le vois a Saint Paul de Vence avec Arielle. Il essaye de me parler, je lui demande de ne pas me deranger. Une année apres les employés de l’hotel en parlent encore. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:01:26

@nntaleb Or the “g” where they talk about “manifold” Permalink 2020-08-31 12:03:14

@nntaleb J’ai eu une histoire avec BHL. Tres amusante. Apres mon café. Permalink 2020-08-31 11:47:44

@nntaleb Great Solution! Permalink 2020-08-30 15:21:20

@nntaleb La photo n’est pas très … Permalink 2020-08-30 10:54:21

@nntaleb The main problem with statistics is statisticians. Permalink 2020-08-29 16:48:51

@nntaleb The ArcSin law (Feller) Permalink 2020-08-29 16:23:44

@nntaleb Morning therapy [ROMANIAN MATHEMATICAL MAGAZINE] Permalink 2020-08-29 11:43:03

@nntaleb BS. Less than 3% but the reverse is true: Arabians with a Levantine origin. Permalink 2020-08-29 11:16:57

@nntaleb American Universities are going to be totally controlled by Robestpierristas (by the minority rule). I mean, totally, as there is no visible countermechanism. Sorry for the innocent funders of their endowments. Permalink 2020-08-29 00:07:43

@nntaleb Wait a week or so. Permalink 2020-08-28 23:55:40

@nntaleb 2) Kamal Salibi was literally a fiction writer (as patently shown in his theory of the origin of Moses). THe Marib dam population is another fiction. Any scholar citing him for anything historical is effectively a fraud. cc:@PZalloua We are debunking that crap with min effort Permalink 2020-08-28 23:54:50

@nntaleb This is TOTAL BS 95% population is local. The Maronites RELIGION came from near Apamea, the POPULATION is local. Sunnis is Lebanon have ~NO Peninsular origin. And the Druze are loca, and, if anything Anatolians. If there is a “foreign origin”, it is Anatolian for ALL >3000 y ago. Permalink 2020-08-28 22:08:12

@nntaleb Are you Erythrean? Permalink 2020-08-28 21:44:29

@nntaleb Twitter conversations can help develop an idea. Permalink 2020-08-28 21:39:28

@nntaleb You forget @normonics and an unnamed person (as yet) in government. Permalink 2020-08-28 14:48:34

@nntaleb Je vais m’y mettre alors. Permalink 2020-08-28 11:08:12

@nntaleb I know Hebrew Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:40

@nntaleb Please explain. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:19

@nntaleb The Gulf despises “Shamis” (Levantines) and they consider us pretenders & a highly impure race, so their form of antisemitism is directed towards Levantines. Jews don’t bother them as much. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:14:39

@nntaleb Yes the thing is about lithurgy, not culture. Ezra told me how he wrote in Judeo-Arabic, his father’s script. I could speak to him for 24 hours without noticing. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:10:57

@nntaleb Zilkha. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:05:18

@nntaleb Sephardic is not Mizrahi, as you well know! I remember Ezra Zilha insisting obsessively that he was not Separdic. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:03:54

@nntaleb Yes here it is. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:02:06

@nntaleb That’s not at all what he is saying. To the contrary. Permalink 2020-08-27 22:51:39

@nntaleb Meds not just Mizrahis. Also Alexandrians. They had duty free shops in NY and Paris, no? Permalink 2020-08-27 22:28:52

@nntaleb Almost right. The Farhis were political advisors… Permalink 2020-08-27 21:55:03

@nntaleb Not reliable in a train station with transit Permalink 2020-08-27 21:52:17

@nntaleb 3) The idea of the Brier Score is that you need to be *precise* hence minimize the error rate. Under maximal uncertaity it becomes betting at ½. Same with entropy. This is our response to Silver’s agent: Permalink 2020-08-27 20:07:43

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-27 19:54:10

@nntaleb In other words your forecast reflects the uncertainty built in because it raises low probabilities (below ½) and lower high prob so you converge to ½ under maximal uncertainty. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:41:49

@nntaleb 4th paper abt my problem w/Nate Silver & that idiot @PTetlock over election forecasting. It’s (perhaps) refining my methodology & that of @DhruvMadeka Basically: Predictions must have #skininthegame hence MUST be subjected to arbitrage boundaries. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697688.2020.1757136?journalCode=rquf20 Permalink 2020-08-27 19:39:41

@nntaleb 2/ Google Translate iza bit na22é shubit2ul ma fi ytrjem w l 3alam hon bidi3o shwayy. Baddak tékhedon w tjibon shwayy. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:28:21

@nntaleb Tweet deleted! Permalink 2020-08-27 19:24:50

@nntaleb This is an excellent intuition. Permalink 2020-08-27 18:09:53

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:48:32

@nntaleb You can condition mobility on that. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:32:28

@nntaleb Looks like the END. (If true, & you do not need that good a rate of false negative). Our circle saw the Covid problem when all these “expert” idiots where blind, failed to see the dynamics. Now we see the resolution when they are stuck in the past. Testing was the solution. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:30:33

@nntaleb Nothing racist. Damascus Jews are a distinct cutural group with merchant habits because they were traditionally excluded from the military. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:22:27

@nntaleb The end of the tunnel. So life can resume. (If this is true). And, I am certain, more such tests are on the way. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:05:21

@nntaleb Only 20-30 million people speak Koranic Arabic and none as a native language. Out of 1.5 bil. Permalink 2020-08-27 16:54:38

@nntaleb Look: Islam & Judaism kept the original language. Christianity did until Vatican 2 (or 1). Permalink 2020-08-27 16:37:45

@nntaleb Could be someone from Tyre as an author. They wrote in Greek. Permalink 2020-08-27 15:36:01

@nntaleb شي حمصي عم بردلون ياها Permalink 2020-08-27 15:21:18

@nntaleb Huwwé 7msé Permalink 2020-08-27 15:19:02

@nntaleb @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-08-27 11:29:47

@nntaleb ANCIENT PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: SIDONIANS There is an antology of jokes (Philogelos) compiled in the Hellenistic period. The butt of jokes are Sidonians who represent foolishness (something not attested elsewhere). Some of the jokes are remarkably modern. Permalink 2020-08-27 11:20:07

@nntaleb ? Permalink 2020-08-27 02:40:04

@nntaleb I meant a cut of the profits Permalink 2020-08-27 02:28:39

@nntaleb Aleppo was on the silk road. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:15:20

@nntaleb A Syrian joke: Put three persons from Aleppo in the same room; they will create a commodities market. Put three people from Damascus & they will form a political party. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:11:21

@nntaleb I was only employed for 7 ½ years in total, but in 1987 as a trader we had a cut and the job instability of entrepreneurs. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:08:45

@nntaleb “We don’t do Jobs” In 1989, a bunch of young Aleppo Jews arrived in NY, the last to leave Syria. A friend of mine went to greet them & offer help in securing employment: “We don’t do jobs” They started selling shoes in Harlem & the Bronx. 30 y later they all have yuuge mansions. Permalink 2020-08-27 01:30:46

@nntaleb Which joke? Permalink 2020-08-27 00:46:21

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-08-26 23:45:07

@nntaleb The skew decreased for those using Black Scholes. But most traders used their own intuitive pricing in the pits. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:53:51

@nntaleb Not really. There was a skew before for OTM. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:20:15

@nntaleb Hi John (if I may) It is explained much much better here https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Ciao, N Permalink 2020-08-26 20:38:24

@nntaleb En corse? @diankarlu Permalink 2020-08-26 19:27:34

@nntaleb Must be a station for travelers pple out of town Permalink 2020-08-26 18:07:14

@nntaleb Possible but more likely bad birth records Permalink 2020-08-26 17:45:51

@nntaleb Your harmless insult would have more value if you showed your identity (#Skininthegame). As such it is solely an expression of being a loser. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:35:45

@nntaleb Posting the errata for STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS. The PDF will update next week. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:32:33

@nntaleb You can disagree without pathologizing him for being Jewish. The Thawra has NOTHING to gain from it. NOTHING. Grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:27:19

@nntaleb It is usually the real losers who play naked cowardly bigotry against a defenseless super-minority (Jewish). If you had any self respect, you would be showing your name. Try to be useful to the Thawra, grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:25:15

@nntaleb In #SkinintheGame I was shocked to see Italians eating at MacDonalds in the Milan train station: it’s abt lowering the variance, trading quality for certainty & reliability. It’s the same reason you hire employees: for their predictability/reliable mediocrity, never for quality. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:02:02

@nntaleb Has ALSO been tested by time. Permalink 2020-08-26 15:03:30

@nntaleb In Principia Politica: https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1298635007540506625 Permalink 2020-08-26 15:01:14

@nntaleb This is BULLSHIT. The term antisemite means targeting Jews specifically. You should be ashamed as it is a huge embarassment for the Thawra. Permalink 2020-08-26 11:53:12

@nntaleb Yes but I like to be free. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:56:48

@nntaleb I was approached for the board. I don’t do boards. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:45:01

@nntaleb Antisemitism is bad for Lebanon. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:43:31

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class. Permalink 2020-08-25 21:02:48

@nntaleb WILL YOU DELETE YOUR TWEET? OR I CAN GET TRY TO GET YOU BLOCKED ON TWITTER FOR HATE SPEECH/ ANTISEMITISM. Permalink 2020-08-25 19:36:49

@nntaleb Make a list of quacks and put him on it. It’s easy. Permalink 2020-08-25 19:06:18

@nntaleb Another signal. They add up. Wear a mask. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-25/this-starbucks-in-south-korea-became-a-beacon-for-mask-wearing?sref=M5yhqEtt via @business Permalink 2020-08-25 18:01:27

@nntaleb 1 year! Permalink 2020-08-25 17:44:55

@nntaleb Why the fuck does his background have anything to do with anything? This is SHAMEFUL. Delete your tweet. Permalink 2020-08-25 17:40:44

@nntaleb Waiting for the findings by @stan_yurin and the Shill Buster for the amusement. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:57:55

@nntaleb No, still the first. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:23:20

@nntaleb SILENT RISK, Vol 2 of the Technical Incerto Once you get the title right, the book writes itself. Permalink 2020-08-25 14:44:54

@nntaleb Yes otherwise you would have no MDs Permalink 2020-08-25 13:34:35

@nntaleb You are both right. A weak argument becomes a fallacy when used out of context. As with that FrancoOxford idiot & @BallouxFrancois Permalink 2020-08-25 13:11:48

@nntaleb “I am a professorrr at Oxford HENCE I understand RISK Hence I decide who does and doesn’t understand RISK”. Straight character out of #Antifragile, @JBerestycki is like one of those nuns lecturing street prostitutes on sexual positions & how to scam clients. #ExpertProblem #IYI Permalink 2020-08-25 12:16:29

@nntaleb 2/ And of course I do not mandate lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:11:07

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, read Hayek. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:03:15

@nntaleb This is shoddy journalism: the authors insists that Falwell was a Trump supporter. If someone who violates a moral rule loves watching Mickey House, Mickey Mouse now has a partial agency of the moral violation. [Journos violate this rule on both sides, as with Epstein.] Permalink 2020-08-24 22:59:30

@nntaleb Thanks Gary for helping him. Chap 3 is nontechnical Permalink 2020-08-24 21:18:00

@nntaleb There is no “real world risk”. It is risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 21:00:09

@nntaleb Or risk. This fucking idiot Julien Berestycki can make NO statement about risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 20:40:55

@nntaleb Equal weighted and rebalanced? Or rebalanced once? Permalink 2020-08-24 18:44:50

@nntaleb No, può sorgere con me. Mangio sempre trippa e la do agli ospiti. Permalink 2020-08-24 18:43:43

@nntaleb Block. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:56:41

@nntaleb So long as it is comprehensive, no. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:46:29

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-24 17:44:51

@nntaleb Thanks! Can you show us the clusters? Permalink 2020-08-24 17:39:55

@nntaleb A summary of my IQ piece. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:14:53

@nntaleb Download the PDF and print it Permalink 2020-08-24 16:28:54

@nntaleb Explain what you mean. Permalink 2020-08-24 14:10:35

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STAT CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping. https://thescribestore.com/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb… And remember the PDF is Free! https://researchers.one/article/2020-01-21… Permalink 2020-08-24 14:02:14

@nntaleb Baalbeck = Heliopolos, so very credible. Permalink 2020-08-24 13:51:01

@nntaleb Sorry but I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-08-24 12:58:08

@nntaleb This is not a “wall of shame” made by anyone I know. This is a Wall of Fame promoted by the anti-mask-virus-is-a-hoax industry, with a message to support their tweets. Gabish? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:57:38

@nntaleb You are not getting what fat tails mean here. It is the spread in the environment/disruption cascades Permalink 2020-08-24 12:42:14

@nntaleb What the fuck do you mean by cannot invoke any credible mechanism? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:37:12

@nntaleb Neither Ioannidis nor Levitt (nor even clueless Balloux) are directly involved but there is a group of active astroturfers for the mask-denying-virus-is-a-hoax agenda. As w/Monsanto, could be traced to PR firm. Suspicion: someone w/investments in airlines/hospitality funding. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1297845933758177283 Permalink 2020-08-24 12:29:40

@nntaleb If your prior is thin tails your posterior becomes fat tails after one single observation Permalink 2020-08-24 11:04:23

@nntaleb I will start a dialogue as follows (frm your site you seem trustworthy) We’re not saying this is worse than anything. Pls read our debate w/Ioannidis(a gntlman). Please comment honestly; I will not be upset if unlike Belloux you point at *precise* flaws. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-24 01:49:16

@nntaleb Mr Househ, I can engage you outside this conversation if you wish. Permalink 2020-08-24 01:22:43

@nntaleb Why didn’t you come to the last day of RWRI? Permalink 2020-08-24 01:19:34

@nntaleb @gabrielpeyre Permalink 2020-08-24 01:17:13

@nntaleb Beware statements like “it does not depend on the law of the entries”. Convergence is super-slow, only works at infinity. I show example in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, but with Fat tails (free PDF). https://twitter.com/gabrielpeyre/status/1297398160214589441 Permalink 2020-08-24 01:13:09

@nntaleb Here is the hall of “experts”: 3-4 down out of 12 (includ. civilized debate w/Ioannidis), but others would be scraping the bottom of the pot. These “experts” are being used for backup by the politicized no-mask-virus-is-a-hoax mob (see from @BallouxFrancois’s feed). Permalink 2020-08-24 00:05:26

@nntaleb My friend, stamp tax in the UK made houses rich owing to CFDs (Contracts for differences). Permalink 2020-08-23 23:31:57

@nntaleb Mni7a Permalink 2020-08-23 21:21:58

@nntaleb Not related. Shammas is from an old pagan practice (Shams) means acolyte for both Christians and Mizrahi Jews Permalink 2020-08-23 21:17:35

@nntaleb When someone declares “I will not devote more time to this”, it is a guarantee he will spend more time on it. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:16:14

@nntaleb I mean garbiyo Permalink 2020-08-23 21:10:30

@nntaleb Plural? Permalink 2020-08-23 21:09:27

@nntaleb Yes, indeed. But I wonder why in Syriac North is Gharbiyo. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:05:10

@nntaleb Yes my interest is in EXONAMES given by the conquerrors as a geographic position w/reference to them. Sham is an exoname (relates to someone south of you). Maghreb is one. Anatolia is one. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:51:25

@nntaleb OK, OK, I made a mistake: there are some Dimashqi, but much much fewer than Shami. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:46:54

@nntaleb I meant in the vernaculars Permalink 2020-08-23 20:41:31

@nntaleb Yes that’s what I was looking for. @QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 20:36:49

@nntaleb No. Mikdash vs Mshkan. Easy for us to get (maskan). Permalink 2020-08-23 20:35:25

@nntaleb Relax, MSM. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:33:17

@nntaleb I was wondering when the name stopped and when it resumed. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:32:02

@nntaleb Was that name given during Nahda? Permalink 2020-08-23 20:07:37

@nntaleb Elia Capitolina. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:06:28

@nntaleb Or the Syriac, I don’t know if ܕܰܪܡܣܘܩܳܝܐ was used before Nahda. @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 20:02:08

@nntaleb After Nahda. cc:@QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 19:51:01

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The name Dimashq دمشق was almost never used in Ar. for 1200 y before Orientalists, but exoname “AlSham” الشام (“the North”). For Ottomans “Şam Sancağı” Hint: There are family names “Shami”, no “Dimashqi”. Same for Jerusalem: اورشليم was القدس.(=>Qudsi) Permalink 2020-08-23 19:48:10

@nntaleb Was in 2018 Permalink 2020-08-23 17:27:13

@nntaleb Lessons from the errors of @BallouxFrancois 1- RISKS: for 1 indiv. is the real of medicine/biology. Risk for a collective is statistical modeling. For >10^6, Extreme Value Theory. 2- ACTION: For indiv it is abt health. For collective, it is all about connectivity. Permalink 2020-08-23 17:07:28

@nntaleb That was March 11 Permalink 2020-08-23 16:22:39

@nntaleb In Berytus restaurants, Mazaher Permalink 2020-08-23 16:15:38

@nntaleb Yes he does not know how to calculate risk. Not at all. He conflates individual and aggregate. I saw numerous errors before yesterday. Totally clueless. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:59:36

@nntaleb “Please stop; please stop!”… “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t yet know what he is getting into. This is just the prologue. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:38:23

@nntaleb 4/ Please be careful about the “Sweden argument”. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:18:37

@nntaleb 3/ FALSE DICHOTOMIES: Economy vs virus. Most bus failures come from risk aversion. Nonlinearity: hosp capacity gets overhelmed. We are progressively learning abt the disease: BUY TIME, w/treatments improving, perhaps vaccine. Most effective: masks+superspreaders for now Permalink 2020-08-23 14:48:56

@nntaleb 2 Permalink 2020-08-23 14:40:08

@nntaleb Balloux has NO idea how to calculate risk, but not my point here: he give fodder to a crowd of crackpots. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:28:50

@nntaleb 2/MYTHS BY CRANKS a- “Masks are not effective” (using “sounds scientific” biology argument) b- Measures carry economic costs: no, it’s the VIRUS that’s costly [See debate w/Ioannidis]. c- “Death numbers are low” w/o realizing it is BECAUSE of measures. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:25:43

@nntaleb Friends, there is a mob of “COVID is not serious” (even hoax) politicized attack dogs w/no notion of science nor interest in it who tag to the very few play-the-system risk-clueless academics like @BallouxFrancois carrying THE msg that fits them. Any other compromised academic? Permalink 2020-08-23 14:03:59

@nntaleb Marsa= port en Phenicien Permalink 2020-08-23 13:40:57

@nntaleb Try Amioun outdoor cafés. I work there all the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:14:42

@nntaleb I fail to understand why all your cartoons make me morose and serious when I joke 99.999999% of the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:12:13

@nntaleb @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 13:09:59

@nntaleb L’accento siciliano è vicino all’arabo: p diventa b, o diventa u, c diventa g-q Permalink 2020-08-23 13:04:44

@nntaleb Cavendish, Wolfram. You need independence. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:01:29

@nntaleb Barli sicilianu? Permalink 2020-08-23 12:57:35

@nntaleb 10 – 12 episodi, per imparare il siciliano Permalink 2020-08-23 12:55:57

@nntaleb No. Permalink 2020-08-23 12:48:33

@nntaleb Il commissario Montalbano beve il caffè del mattino Permalink 2020-08-23 12:47:43

@nntaleb Now a ref for the genre (don’t quite agree w/Raoult rather w/his style) Raoult: “He is a kind of Nassim Taleb of infectious disease. He is brilliant, doesn’t feign false humility, & claims rather persuasively that he’s indifferent to many of his critics.” Permalink 2020-08-23 12:29:52

@nntaleb Same. It is never fun unless it is all together. Noticed t you were also MD. We had 2 of them. Permalink 2020-08-23 11:56:15

@nntaleb No but same thing for prof Permalink 2020-08-23 01:30:20

@nntaleb Very illustrative of power laws: at #RWRI we observed an 80/20 rule: we were ~ 100 & 20 people contributed to >80% of the discussions. Permalink 2020-08-23 00:12:23

@nntaleb Why? Permalink 2020-08-22 22:14:51

@nntaleb That “wouldn’t happen” Permalink 2020-08-22 21:04:47

@nntaleb Balloux, if there was a flaw in the paper Mr Curtis would have made a PRECISE point, as I did with you, not some vague comment about the presentation. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:58:47

@nntaleb Dave Curtis, imbecile, 1- Stat/math journals do not have impact factors comparable to medicine (there are 100 times more bullshitting doctors like you than statisticians). IJF is among the top. 2- Explain why I should care about what epidemiologists think? Permalink 2020-08-22 19:42:52

@nntaleb So why the fuck are you imparting statements I did not make? And opinions I DO NOT HAVE? OF COURSE known situation warrants a lower level of precaution (less uncertainty) and more targeted mitigation, no lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:17:12

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is not about precaution but this idiot Francois ignorant about basic risk comparisons. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:12:08

@nntaleb 2) Many misunderstood. If I block you it does not mean I am upset, only that I don’t like noise on my TL. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:37:37

@nntaleb This it turned out is part of a bunch of shills from the Monsanto days against our GMO paper. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:36:43

@nntaleb You don’t know Wittgenstein’s ruler. Can’t read as I’ve blocked that troll. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:57:28

@nntaleb Needless to say my solution is the least elegant here! Permalink 2020-08-22 14:40:17

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-22 14:35:57

@nntaleb Post #RWRI relaxation. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:05:52

@nntaleb He is not blocked. You’re the idiot. Ha. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:34:49

@nntaleb To figure out if someone is an idiot, call him an idiot and check if he gets upset. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:25:56

@nntaleb The take home is everything is convex from 0 up to a point. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:14:23

@nntaleb Risk is not his job, obviously. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:02:56

@nntaleb May get concave somewhere, not here & depends how you scale. Log[yield]= \alpha Log[size] so yield =size^\alpha here >1 hence convex at least within range, up till the Taylor limit. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:01:25

@nntaleb سلامتك! Permalink 2020-08-22 01:51:36

@nntaleb Impressive! Permalink 2020-08-22 00:56:18

@nntaleb Compare to last year’s numbers… Permalink 2020-08-21 23:19:22

@nntaleb Your interlocutor was blocked for trolling. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:18:24

@nntaleb 5) And I DO NOT advocate lockdowns (except “in extremis”), rather controlling superspreaders, hyperactive testing, border control & forcing face masks. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:08:49

@nntaleb I see Boldrin on my thread whom I blocked for charlatanism. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:59:20

@nntaleb 4) When I call pple idiots, they have earned it, BSF (“BS-Frankie @BallouxFrancois). For every location, relative changes in Covid fatalities proved > 100 time higher than relative Δ road deaths. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:44:15

@nntaleb 3) Even without fat tails “BS-Frankie” @BallouxFrancois is failing elemtary statistics (Sat 101): comparing 2 variables with different variances (one very low, other very very high). Permalink 2020-08-21 22:06:26

@nntaleb 2) The other thing this marshmallowbrained “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t get is that the #of people who died from COVID accounts for mitigation & risk control measures. It’s like saying: we don’t need security checks since planes aren’t crashing. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-21 21:53:20

@nntaleb It is remarkable that you have idiots like this “Prof” @BallouxFrancois who conflate additive risks with multiplicative ones (fat tailed), a mistake your grandmother wouldn’t make. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:27:23

@nntaleb Education w/low tolerance for boring things. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:25:31

@nntaleb Yes < 1/4 could be an inequality. Being conservative with a square law. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:58:06

@nntaleb BEIRUT EXPLOSION at #RWRI: all abt CONCENTRATION & CONVEXITY It has nothing to do with politics, nothing to do with anything except concentration/scaling & 1/n rule of harm: If the Chernobyl plant was ½ the size, damage would be ~1/4. See #Antifragile #Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-21 20:51:32

@nntaleb I keep repeating in the INCERTO: take stressors in the middle, be paranoid in the TAILS. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:46:11

@nntaleb 3 times distilled. Permalink 2020-08-21 19:24:26

@nntaleb It is actually finite mean because boundedness. But remote. ANd LLN is slow. Permalink 2020-08-21 14:41:24

@nntaleb If data can be explained by BOTH fat tails & thin tails, then it must be fat tailed. This is the Masquerade Problem: there is a hierarchy of distributions. Note: Every Power law can be explained ex post by a sum of Poissons. But a Poisson cannot be explained by a PL. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-21 14:21:39

@nntaleb Non car si on leve 400 livres la pression arterielle va a 30/15 donc on est SUR qu’il n’y pas de rupture possible. Comme un test de stress. Permalink 2020-08-21 12:44:18

@nntaleb Where is Musar? Permalink 2020-08-21 00:09:22

@nntaleb Wine. We want to see. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:58:49

@nntaleb 135… but watch out! the weights are loose. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:57:15

@nntaleb To sleep well: hedge all your tail exposures. #RWRI + hide nothing from your enemies + pay all your taxes, show the IRS all your income mother of all tail risks) + be uncancellable + back up all your data + have some gold (and/or BTC) but not too much … Permalink 2020-08-20 20:56:09

@nntaleb How high ? Permalink 2020-08-20 20:39:58

@nntaleb Indeed. Most asymptomatic people have “something wrong” in their MRI. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:32:51

@nntaleb It means that one may have centrist opinions on balance, but not be systematically in the center for EVERY issue. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:08:13

@nntaleb I fixed my own by lifting weight progressively Permalink 2020-08-20 14:45:08

@nntaleb Can you go bullshit elsewhere, please? Permalink 2020-08-20 11:09:55

@nntaleb You sleep better when you have tail risk hedges. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-20 11:01:17

@nntaleb and to thank @rperezmarco and @joe_shipman ! Permalink 2020-08-20 02:00:22

@nntaleb Forgot to thank you. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:59:34

@nntaleb I also run mine with water. Cleans the filter. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:43:04

Evolutionary Biologists, Ayn Rand, Dawkins, Quilettebeciles, Nate Silver, Mosquitos, Bolton, Pinker, Nudgeboy, Pencilwits, Brasil | Twitter

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Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference.

Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence (Hattip Dave Lull)

@nntaleb We had DNA evidence that the ancient Egyptian ruling class came from the North. Socks-with-scandals places them somewhere around what is now Central Germany. https://twitter.com/rabihalameddine/status/1176247307341164544 Permalink 2:55 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) People have no problem getting Nietzsche, Le Bon, & other’s point that crowds composed of sane individuals can go crazy. It is harder to get the reverse: that some groups of unfit individuals can be fitter than others with better individuals. Permalink 2:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) These simple comments by the 2 fellows destroy +5 decades of evolutionary psychology/biology, etc. I mean really shatter current methods. pic.twitter.com/Q6Opzp6XFF Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Please do not respond to my claim that “(most) evolutionary biologists are dumb” by calling me an egomaniac/some other pathology or “he says everybody but me is dumb”. Rather, try to grasp the below thread w/discussions by @yaneerbaryam etc. You will then see the gravity. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1176190670433857536 Permalink 1:46 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Actually this is a chapter in #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/reC9hrJ8VD Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Do not mess with him. https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1175888089367162880 Permalink 10:33 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I would tell him that he should feel lucky. Compare these to the worst possible nightmare: an association with Ayn Rand. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1176107964656234497 Permalink 10:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@MuserMarco His argument is basicallly that because of nonlinear effects the macro (group) cannot be explained by the micro (individual). A group is not just a bunch of individuals. Or in other words, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Permalink 8:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Caro Bret, This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs. Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 7:51 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Cheese Galettes with halloumi & kashkaval made by Syrians from Raqqa (Beirut highway). pic.twitter.com/HrwRVoEW0r Permalink 4:53 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@ProBucks_ “naive interventionism” proving detrimental in yet another complex system with long lasting unintended effects. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1175636181515718656 Permalink 10:36 PM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The art and science of drinking with Russians. pic.twitter.com/GIF8al4S8K Permalink 11:09 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vitello tonnato with squid ink. #OnlyinMoscow pic.twitter.com/EWz9zI60Sf Permalink 8:12 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@GeorgeJNasr #Pedophrasty: Argument involving #Children to prop up a rationalization, & make opponents look like assholes. Nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the #news. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B”> pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Why is it wrong to be a “group selectionist”, @BretWeinstein ? You do not have to defend yourself ag. the BS vendor @sapinker. The 2 journalists Pinker & Dawkins have been barking/bullshitting w/o showing flaws in Nowak, Wilson et al. #Multiscale & aggregation. @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1175592010662567936 Permalink 5:07 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapuri pic.twitter.com/AUAA39pjc4 Permalink 4:04 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of large corporations: those about to go bankrupt, those that are bankrupt and hide it, those that are bankrupt and don’t know it. Permalink 12:11 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty is spreading https://twitter.com/mayurshetty01/status/1175624855837925376 Permalink 12:00 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb водка pic.twitter.com/Q85lklqq8Y Permalink 1:35 PM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great John Gray explains that Christianity is, basically, secular humanism. https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1174383075419197441 Permalink 9:15 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dawkins, as exected, another fake scholar. https://twitter.com/gheathwhyte/status/1175081067943997440 Permalink 7:47 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@RickyDelFuego Next phase begins when the kids start reading @nntaleb and realize the reason no one listens to the “educated” is because someone who collected $100,000 in debt to get a PhD in “empathy as communication” or whatever isn’t worth listening to. https://twitter.com/nicgaston/status/1175302556324651009 Permalink 7:14 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1170627288947470336 https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1166321418432339969 Permalink 4:12 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@PaulSkallas ”If your private life conflicts with your intellectual opinion, it cancels your intellectual ideas, not your private life.” Permalink 5:53 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And “psychologist”. https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1175190661538226177 Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@GuillermoBurr The results are so aberrant and childish that they remind me of Dr Malcolm in the movie Jurasic Park. When he is informed that all dinosaurs are female and that they cannot breed, he answers: life will find a way (sic) Permalink 4:46 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@Vasilis48814362 When I finished black swan, I felt good, but also in panic because I could not believe for once someone was right on pretty much everything. The smear articles online only worsened this panic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1175185309073625093 Permalink 4:27 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@holland_tom One is a work of Protestant theology. And one is by me! https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1175053970613706753?s=20 Permalink 7:29 AM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “it is only when you don’t care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most convincing evidence that the psychology of happiness is total BS is to meet “happiness” “expert” psychologists in person. https://twitter.com/alexandersquats/status/1174719753283178496 Permalink 9:31 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@normonics looks like I’ve been using “moron” where I should have been using “imbecile” Nassim gets it right again Permalink 7:41 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@RobRastapop Of all writings I love only that which is written in blood. Nietzsche Not everything that happens, happens for a reason. But everything that survives, survives for a reason. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/M4l1VIZitz Permalink 6:04 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism means skin in the game and personal accountability @nntaleb https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/999927177259892738 Permalink 5:36 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@AssalehAmer The Bed of Procrustes, https://twitter.com/king4judge/status/1174507514358095873 Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A #Lindy drink. So is its (mild) hangover. Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@john_f_hamer “Just as dyed hair makes old men less attractive, it is what you do to hide your weaknesses that makes them repugnant.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0bJDJ3rLtS Permalink 4:12 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@themintmag “Every time I have questioned these methods I have been abruptly countered with: “they have the Nobel”, which I have found impossible to argue with.” – @nntaleb Hence the need for the #NotTheNobel. Econ is not a science. Vote for a fresh thinker today! https://lght.ly/g1dmja9 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO”> pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO Permalink 3:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “What they call philosophy I call literature; what they call literature I call journalism; what they call journalism I call gossip; and what they call gossip I call (generously) voyeurism.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2:13 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@sean_a_mcclure Many lack the scientific literacy needed to understand the IQ debate. I wrote this conceptual article to help those ill-equipped to form an educated opinion on a massively important topic. https://bit.ly/2m0JtAM @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik #science #psychology ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS”> pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0sfzemUBsL Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nabilshadman @nntaleb said “Learning is rooted in repetition and convexity, meaning that the reading of a single text twice is more profitable than reading two different texts once.” Permalink 11:00 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@birdxi1988 Jus realize this is extremely important. Not only in psychology but also in finance. This debunked various kinds of CAPM related regression. Eg, Fama–MacBeth regression(for risk premium). Same situation as here: return(fat tail) is regressed over beta(thin). E(R^2) is zero! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1174231033514008576 Permalink 10:18 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the Negroni’s 100th anniversary. (in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/GIf8rimtNf Permalink 8:53 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@willianadamczyk “Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsability”. @nntaleb , 2012 Permalink 8:02 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@kudra_1 “Pedophrasty,” coined by @nntaleb: Using children to “prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children.” https://twitter.com/jenniferm_q/status/1174308373526929408 Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@JYuter I’m old enough to remember when people called for civility when someone died (and that’s assuming it’s true) https://twitter.com/jeremymbarr/status/1174098732905881601 Permalink 4:18 PM – 17 Sep 2019

@garyruskin U.S. Right to Know investigates big food and agrichemical companies. We expose what they want to hide. We stand up for our right to know what’s in our food. Please contribute today: https://www.patreon.com/usrtk Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@venksaiyan Something @nntaleb has been saying for long. Theory often follows Invention. https://twitter.com/davidlayden/status/1173712393312059393 Permalink 1:25 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@sjourdan This new edition of #incerto is beautiful. @nntaleb rocks. pic.twitter.com/wTaZ16iHZh Permalink 10:21 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@exergiovanni I thought religion was irrational. Thanks to professor @nntaleb I changed my mind diametrically. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is not an “error”: this is genetics. Higher dimensions are really unpredictable. pic.twitter.com/1CqvZokuiz Permalink 3:25 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “I am never bothered by normal people; it is the bull***tter in the intellectual profession who bothers me.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:33 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to not realize that so many “noble” pursuits (academia, service, anything where one is paid with “honors”) are zero-sum. And wealth pursuits, outside of rent seeking, aren’t zero-sum. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1173561683870179328 Permalink 12:42 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Joey Automata: you need the Quilettebeciles to keep posting complaints about you, not the reverse. Keep irritating them, don’t reply TO them. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1173195884236087296 Permalink 9:55 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are other errors… the person who put the cheat sheet together is not familiar with probability. Permalink 8:17 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “thinking like Nate Silver” part is a red flag. https://twitter.com/KirkDBorne/status/1173511271544586240 Permalink 8:13 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vegan is Halal, not the opposite. Much more asymmetric that you think. https://twitter.com/naniiyer/status/1173567520860704769 Permalink 6:50 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/Np6mErhFuW Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@_benoux_ For those who still don’t get it. Let’s use an another example: @nntaleb published an excellent book, “SKIN IN THE GAME”. A figurative title consolidates a background in probability & statistics. He didn’t name it “Enlightened Reason & Science of Risks in Humanism” (Pinker-like). Permalink 5:36 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile Permalink 4:38 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is the only compliment that counts, not that I actually agree with the designation “ash*” as a proxy for uncompromizing. https://twitter.com/squidbidness/status/1173310545748848641 Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we need 3 more applicants for women scholarships for RWRI 12 in New York Oct 24. http://www.realworldrisk.com Permalink 9:29 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@BLebnene L fasel l 20 min kteb Le Petit Prince bil Libnene bil 7arfen l 3arabe wil Letiine! Tarjamit @HsenAndil الفصل ال20 من كتاب Le Petit Prince باللبناني بالحرفين العربي واللاتيني! https://medium.com/bel-lebneene/l-fasel-l-20-l-miir-zzghiir-f58995d8d080 Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@zkortbawy باللبناني”خَلّيك هَون Khallik Hawn” = “إبقى هنا Ibka Houna” بالعربي #بتحكي_لبناني_كتوب_لبناني @BLebnene Permalink 2:13 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sample https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLQ0ryLOWik&feature=share Permalink 2:48 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Northern Lebanese, from Zgharta. https://twitter.com/manwithahammer/status/1172969296189894661 Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@DrMichaelBonner For flexibility and clarity: Greek; For precision: a tie between Latin and Arabic; For sound: a tie between Syriac and Persian; For rhythm: Arabic; For intricacy: Sanskrit; For interesting texts: Greek, Aramaic, Syriac, and Armenian. For sheer mental exertion: Hieroglyphic! https://twitter.com/Bfklin/status/1172964937741869057 Permalink 1:13 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This guy is good. And he knows his stuff. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1172845055289245696 Permalink 12:03 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, Bill Gates doesn’t get that neomania works with software with reversible errors, not with complex systems. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1172904846787301377?s=20 Permalink 9:18 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@Jaffer22915438 FWIW: Tulsi Gabbard had more traffic to her website during the Dem debate than any day since the last debate. Permalink 8:30 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@wrathofgnon We know that modern grains are far less nutritious than ancient grains. Turns out even our great-grand parents ate vegetables that were many times as nutritious as what we are eating today. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1172843628898578433 Permalink 8:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, the Genetically Modified Mosquito project has gone wrong, with, really, “unforeseen outcomes”. When will IYIs learn that we don’t understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism? pic.twitter.com/YOAZcvKKav Permalink 6:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A reminder that neuroscience, psychology, etc. are NOT reliable, not citable, not useable for anything other than tenure & academic rent seeking. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/free-will-bereitschaftspotential/597736/ Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/myKY0meoT6 Permalink 12:47 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR R^2 is expected to be 0 but in small samples it shows much higher value, here .98. Small is anything <10^8. (cont) pic.twitter.com/3EDMSvpbEB Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x”> pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x Permalink 12:41 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Didn’t we put this, @normonics, in our Precautionary Principle paper? Where did it go? pic.twitter.com/aQ1zF0Peki Permalink 11:20 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb You can’t industrialize, commoditize, & scale knowledge without destroying it at is core. Scholarship is fundamentally an artisanal-style pursuit. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@Contrepoints Face au terrorisme, les #neoconservateurs pensent pouvoir utiliser l’hégémonie politique, militaire et diplomatique pour façonner un monde à leur convenance. Pour @nntaleb, ils font trois erreurs constantes que @FredericMasCP nous explique. #Bolton #Trump https://www.contrepoints.org/2019/09/12/353340-donald-trump-limoge-john-bolton-un-revers-pour-les-neoconservateurs Permalink 11:06 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From experience, I haven’t seen erudites inside academia (few exceptions). By erudition, I mean solid knowledge (ancient languages, history, mathematics, literature-but-not-literary-theories) & naturally exclude knowledge of crap & theories written since 1924 in social “science”. https://twitter.com/T_Libo/status/1172555372982390785 Permalink 10:17 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The association “juzur lubnan” is doing great environmental work; but it is named using loan words from Arabic. Should be renamed “Shlush Lebnén”. #Localism #StandAgainstArabImperialism Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Neomania in #Antifragile https://twitter.com/berensjoshua/status/1172531835454152705 Permalink 8:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “naturalistic fallacy” is not a fallacy outside the moral domain. Gabish? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I am scared of living in a society that doesn’t find it obvious that things perfected by nature over millions of years are scientifically speaking, safer than things made by some “scientists” in a lab. [Corrected] Statistically, the “large n” of nature makes it > scientific. https://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/1139279122516054018 Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb No bureaucrats in peace discussions without some adult supervision. PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica #Blackswanman http://blackswanman.com/#lg=1&slide=41 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ”> pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ Permalink 5:12 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb NEgotiation. Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This was predictive: Black Swan Man tells Trump to have NO bureaucrat involved in ANY peace negociation. No bureaucrat in anything other than record keeping/clerical stuff. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864 Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT”> pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT Permalink 12:51 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@TheBobber Plant-based burgers may be “safe” but they are loaded with crap that Your Grandmother would not recognize and you would be wise (and healthier) to heed the advice of @nntaleb and avoid them. https://twitter.com/GastroHistory/status/1172214307636932608 Permalink 11:39 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The only honest scientific approach to a system as large and complex as the “climate” is one of acknowledging uncertainty, and proceeding with precaution https://fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf Permalink 6:13 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The incessant interventionism of @BillGates and his ilk is enabled by the pathological certainty generated by scientism https://twitter.com/argumentwinner/status/1171979948342546432 Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@city_affairs “The intellectual yet idiot is subscribed to the New Yorker” @nntaleb https://twitter.com/DanielleRyanJ/status/1172109337738862592 Permalink 6:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@oskarth @nntaleb Squid ink in Venesia pic.twitter.com/93o0fEx5Ae Permalink 5:53 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3rd is the Charm. This continues Cirillo & Taleb (2016, 2019), Clauset (2018) showing Pinker @sapinker statement on decline of wars is total BS. @BillGates shd read the scientific literature before peddling Pinker’s flawed journalistic book. https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1171960638882467845 Permalink 5:06 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Good news: Jon Entine and the Genetics Literary Project are designed to intimidate and smear GMO skeptics. They kept spread articles on yours truly. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1172111865616490496 Permalink 5:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@financequant Got a big laugh in my class this afternoon. “In most sciences if reality and the model don’t match, then the model is deemed wrong. In economics that’s taken as evidence that there is something wrong with reality.” Thing is, I wasn’t trying to be funny. Permalink 5:24 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Excellent news. 40 years of sanctions… Enough unnecessary tensions. Had bureaucrats been involved, the 30 year war would have lasted 300 years. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1171812365576409088 Permalink 1:55 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Il faudrait le traduire en francais. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 1:32 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb France is listening to the idea that IQ is largely a fraud. https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1171826033294741505 Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A French essayist watched me during a twitter fight. pic.twitter.com/SAFf1rdMeO Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In Brazil met a fellow who plants trees for paper; claimed the 000s trees he planted yuuugely help the environment. STATIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book they cut a tree. DYNAMIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book, they plant a tree for 5-15 years. Use paper! Similar to ergodicity. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Since @davidgraeber is a target of Quilletbeciles, here is some information about their intellectual standards. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1171507313045209088.html Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I celebrate a certain class of events (Bolton’s demise, Pinker’s new BS) by drinking Советское шампанское, the only think left from the Soviet Union that still makes sense. Or rather, by taking a few celebratory sips then switching to vodka, arak, pastis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetskoye_Shampanskoye https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1171511489871536132 Permalink 4:41 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In one word, you get Steven Pinker @sapinker and the Mickey Mouse version of Western thought. Never read anything about the enlightenment by anyone (1) insufficiently trained in Greek/Latin, (2) not familiar w/medieval thought, (3) not familiar with theology (comes with (2)) https://twitter.com/_benoux_/status/1171520517586636802 Permalink 1:37 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Another reminder that @charlesmurray is a fake scholar, without even going into his Bell Curve. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640 Permalink 1:15 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There goes my diet! Forgot about this plan to have champaign on the day Bolton is out. https://twitter.com/Bardiaexe/status/1171490805283901440?s=20 Permalink 11:45 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb That’s the NYT. Trump not looking for regime change in Iran. pic.twitter.com/8HwaHJsI7d Permalink 11:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Thank you. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1171452881729228802 Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Transitivity of correlation abused. An #Offshorecomic strip idea sparked by @nntaleb #correlation #IQ #transitivity #SocialSciences For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE Buy my here https://buff.ly/2NQzbjY ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup”> pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb IQ does not PREDICT career success. Now that I have the data, found the R^2 close to 0. pic.twitter.com/NmZiaK22xN Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: Better presented in a Log Log Plot. 15-25 dimensions exceed the computational capacity of the planet. DNA has 000s dimensions. pic.twitter.com/UpK4TW1Dkm Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@satyakatla What contrasts Taleb frm information theorists (ITs), IMHO, is that he does math mystical, finds physical significance, which I don’t see amongst my wireless (who does mechanically) and IT folks. I’ve had learned more math just by following Taleb than any coursework I had taken. Permalink 5:42 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Rates do not reflect probability but expectation: “recessions” can take many values. This is BS. Will add to the paper on the flaws in binarizing forecasts (cc:@spyrosmakrid ) https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1171392223595905024 Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: it always shows up. Here I illustrate it with norms. Curse of dimensionality is what I used to show how 1) polygenic scores are a monstrous fraud, 2) GMO analyses don’t work, etc. pic.twitter.com/DAR8M4bTFv Permalink 5:16 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@QuintusCurtius Great thread. See @nntaleb rip into this historically-inaccurate, agenda-driven depiction of St. Augustine, who was of either Punic (i.e., Phoenician) or Berber ancestry. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1166786776259878912 Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 22 years of fighting for that simple point, everyone understands except social scientists, GMO shills, and ignorant risk peddlers . 22 years: How many fraudsters such as nudgeboy @r_thaler or Phil-the-rat Tetlock @PTetlock should we go through before we get that point? Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From 1997 https://twitter.com/JerryCap/status/1171051074775654401 Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Voila The volume increases from 4/3 to 2^3 pic.twitter.com/kY2A3MoFkI Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Added the tutorial on norms to the book (Chapter 3) to show what happens with higher moments of distributions. pic.twitter.com/yvxQaalInx Permalink 5:13 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb David Blaine just tore a deck of cards in half —a real deck. pic.twitter.com/JL97MMuiY3 Permalink 3:00 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of pencilwits didn’t get that it does not mean people always do things for money; it just means that those who are doing somthing “not for the money” don’t go out of their way to inform you of that fact. Blocked a bunch. Permalink 2:50 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb When someone says “I am not doing it for the money” he (she) is doing it only for the money. Permalink 9:54 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@QustnEverything Over 10 years since the last recession—this is a reason to be cautious; not complacent. From @nntaleb “The Black Swan” pic.twitter.com/Kr86v3xZJC Permalink 9:30 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most humiliating moment: had (a long) dinner afterwards with the 3 cousins who spoke no English. Tried babbling in Portuguese, with help from a few Negronis, two caipirinhas &, of course, wine. At the end one of them complimented me: “how come you speak Spanish?” Permalink 1:44 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Because μεράκι I see as “soul in the game” https://twitter.com/GreekEtymology/status/1170467531955609605?s=20 Permalink 3:51 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Is there a connection between the Greek μεράκι , the Lebanese mara2, (meaning enjoying some activity for its own sake, not the Arabic مرق meaning chicken broth), and the Turkish Meraklı? If so, where is the root coming from? Permalink 12:48 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@EmersonSpartz It’s pure laziness to think procrastination is caused by laziness. “Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment.” -@nntaleb Permalink 10:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dunya guzeli https://twitter.com/ahmadzada_ulkar/status/1170239184029782017 Permalink 7:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference. pic.twitter.com/VgwkbXBZ9v Permalink 6:03 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@apas .@nntaleb-like vignette. pic.twitter.com/LOtKNASgk6 Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@NavariniLorenzo Italian ambassador to Austria, Sergio Barbanti, is citing @nntaleb’s Black Swan for opening a seminar on diplomat Nigra in Vienna! I guess that the lindy effect is, slowly, working pic.twitter.com/7yUTE0zfQJ Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@DrGeneCallahan Over-optimizations: Sterilized kitchens Avoidance of all possible allergens with kids Weight machines that isolate a muscle Work schedules with no slack Economies with no downturns @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness from the 70s to the late 90s, NY was not good-but-crap, rather crap-but-great. Permalink 8:08 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@thackerpd 1 5 Switching gears: Brief lecture on how #Monsanto tracks and works to counter reporters such as @sfoucart @stephanehorel @tristanwaleckx @gaellombart Document shows #Monsanto strategy w/ help from PR firm @PublicisGroupe to counter #MonsantoPapers https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6382792-Monsanto-Response-to-LeMonde.html ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3″> pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3 Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the “CRAP BUT GOOD” category, there is an expression about Paolo Maluf: “Maluf steals but delivers” as he kept being reelected in spite of accusations of corruption. Electors preferred a good thief who happens to be a doer to an honest idiot IYI. https://twitter.com/JacopoBambino/status/1169927189128777728?s=20 Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Keep trying, blind idiots. https://twitter.com/techreview/status/1169921428969480192 Permalink 4:12 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Don’t judge a city by bureaucratic criteria like traffic jams, cleanliness, safety, etc., but by something deeper in the soul of the place. Jobim:“Morar em Nova Iorque é bom, mas é uma merda; morar no Rio é uma merda, mas é bom.” (“NY is good, but crap. Rio is crap but good”) Permalink 3:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of (tasty) meat in the Republica Federativa do Brasil. pic.twitter.com/eDBlIoLfg3 Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Churrasco Brasileiro pic.twitter.com/jhwLDIMiWv Permalink 9:23 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Correction: Sao Paolo is pronounced like the French “saon”. Permalink 6:28 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sao Paulo Don’t be fooled by the orthography. “Sao” is pronounced “san”, Joao like the French “jean”, cançao like the French “canson”. pic.twitter.com/iC48aBofAr Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sidley Austin did nothing “illegal”. But smearing, targeting, mobbing, and lying are UNETHICAL practices. Unacceptable! Boycott/Blacklist Sidley Austin. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1169556720089214976 Permalink 3:31 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@adrianaleboss @BLebnene pic.twitter.com/H5mLTHRH6i Permalink 10:28 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@JoshHochschild This price is back. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1156891266220773377 Permalink 7:50 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Mangan150 Why is Vegetable Oil in EVERYTHING? | The History and Corruption Behind Processed Oils https://youtu.be/OGLwGOvvWeg Permalink 5:17 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you have been employed by someone (Trump, Hillary, or Joey The Knife) as a personal assistant, it is yuugely unethical for you to ever divulge what you saw or heard in that capacity. (Except, of course, if you are subpoenaed, witnessed murder, were asked to commit a crime…) Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@ishirubi It’s September now. Usually, habitually I still buy notebooks and pens for myself. This year it’s different. Grabbed the book for a second round, reading preface, chills chills chills. Looks like I forgot a lot since January. Here we go! #rereadincerto #FooledbyRandomness pic.twitter.com/6sGwFyqXZE Permalink 12:59 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Prof_BearB Following in the footsteps of Cirillo and Taleb (2016) and Clauset (2018), I hasten to note :-) Thank you, and thanks for the shout-out! https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1169333423380541443 Permalink 12:39 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If these finance “academics” could predict they would not be academics. The only thing they know is how to become academics. https://twitter.com/financialtimes/status/1169227337449312257 Permalink 6:49 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/BjRG2tVnuO Permalink 2:54 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you lose money, it can be bad luck. It you blow up, it is certainly incompetence. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 2:39 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. If you lose money, it can be bad luck. If you blow up, it is never bad luck. https://twitter.com/mightykaos41/status/1169061510339014656 Permalink 2:32 AM – 4 Sep 2019

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With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate).

The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 16, 2019

Although I will miss him and his brusque, affable manner I fully support @nntaleb's choice to become a monk and I look forward to reading the fruit of his contemplation. pic.twitter.com/2BKHXiK3cU
— Jed 'Sixteen Tons' Trott (@Jed_Trott) April 1, 2019

@nntaleb 15 years ago, I went into psychology trying to figure out how humans misunderstand probability. All I figured out is how psychologists don’t understand probability. Permalink 9:39 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Our great ally… https://twitter.com/marwa__osman/status/1120712087255252993 Permalink 9:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More precise & accurate representation of the mistake; fixed typos. pic.twitter.com/Z2lqshFo3y Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaner @ptetlock’s (Phil the rat) mistake. [more precise] Science is hard Risk is hard. pic.twitter.com/Z3VYClErdD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exact Distribution of different types of payoffs & their conflation in the verbalistic psychology literature. [ref to my bone with @Ptetlock and the forecasting gurus who live on a salary (nonprofit)] pic.twitter.com/7LH5Xz9VWi Permalink 6:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “If you worry about your reputation you don’t deserve to have one.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #reputation Permalink 12:15 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 4/4 understanding @nntaleb ‘s recent paper here is also critically important to understanding what can go wrong when you approximate financial markets with brownian motion: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1117456873605742592 Permalink 12:06 PM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Markers of aging: 1- You stop learning something new 2- You talk too much about aging 3- The things you forget aren’t the things you should be forgetting Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why I call @Ptetlock a rat. He SIGNED on this paper then renegged & stabbed me in the back WITHOUT even contacting me (to get forecasting contracts). pic.twitter.com/qxnjM8yKVT Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Can someone ask @michaelshermer to explain the equations he is commenting on? Twitter is not generous with BS vendors. https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1120363967358963714 Permalink 9:43 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am Christian. I live 11 miles from Salafis. I have skin in the game. And I tell you in past 10y Shiites paid a horrible price. Same during Ottoman era. Permalink 7:22 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Actually… Shiites! They paid the heaviest price. Salafis have been butchering them without much outcry. https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1120162013857161218 Permalink 6:28 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@normonics To @nntaleb’s point: you can only learn from an academic how to be an academic Instead of conveying embodied knowhow from a place of deep understanding, an academic will formulate answers to “essay questions” and “explain his reasoning” in order to keep his GPA up https://twitter.com/hostageklller/status/1119367322379202562 Permalink 6:01 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo: the integration is over any subset of A. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb At the center of my problem with Phil “the rat” Tetlock @Ptetlock is only a matter of…elementary calculus upon which EVERYTHING in his “forecasting” work is built. Elementary. pic.twitter.com/Dn67PIPOz4 Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@TalebQuotes Decline starts with the replacement of dreams with memories and ends with the replacement of memories with other memories. Permalink 10:42 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you define yourself as “localist”, nobody frames you in the “partisan” box; both the “left” & the “right” take you for one of them. The only people in favor of centralization are lobbyists, bureaucrats, & DC parasites. Yet the world is centralizing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:31 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Where I show situations (very common in real life) where you NEED to be a poor forecaster to do well in life and business, and vice versa. [Long proofs] (with Some comments on the “scholarship” of the dishonorable Phil “the rat” Tetlock @PTetlock) pic.twitter.com/4Qhnclxlwt Permalink 3:44 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@sustain05 “Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today.” ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb pic.twitter.com/zPSyBz6Fz7 Permalink 1:52 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@GOATProfessor Seeing Holy Week tweets about Jesus being persecuted by “White patriarchy” of the Roman Empire. That is false history and this piece from @nntaleb shows the problematic nature of that claim. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575 Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday for those who celebrate it today. Permalink 5:13 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb We should have a plan to eliminate Google. https://twitter.com/business/status/1119831495529594882 Permalink 2:23 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@kpchand07 I would urge you to read about IQ as it is a discredited and pseudo-science technique. Many “studies” checking country level IQ’s use “proxy” tests to establish IQ. IQ itself is information-less. @nntaleb has written in this area: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 12:27 PM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE CARPENTER FALLACY In our Precautionary Paper we warn against using “experts” in biology to get tail risks of GMOs, even if they aren’t shills: just as a carpenter is not the one to use to compute probabilities of tail payoffs at a roulette table. https://twitter.com/Benjami47068297/status/1119594805422624768 Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our current system (urbanism) is incapable of learning from its mistakes. https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp/antifragile-urbanism-skin-in-the-game-and-building-what-works/ Permalink 6:37 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No! Rationality is more rigorous than shallow @R_Thaler BS https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Lébnéné (In Lebanese): Iza shéra3t l fehmén ana brba7 Iza shéra3t l finnas huwwé byerba7 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114185871841026049 Permalink 4:30 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@bWestenra “There is no such thing as ‘rationality’ of a belief, there is rationality of action.” – @nntaleb, via @rorysutherland 6/12 Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@dianadarke #NotreDame #Architecture #Europe #Syria Acknowledging Europe’s debt to earlier cultures – via a recent interview with @TheNationalUAE https://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/qalb-loze-inside-the-syrian-church-that-influenced-notre-dame-s-architecture-1.851385 Permalink 2:21 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink 3:54 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is more technically, a RE-conversion. At least, the way converts themselves present it. And ironically it may be the result of and reaction to Wahabisms. https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Muslims-convert-to-Christianity-in-Syrian-town-once-besieged-by-ISIS-587021 Permalink 7:03 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem of these Middleburry idiots is that by attacking and muzzling @CharlesMurray they made a hero out of a mountebank (and, as far as his report of my encounter with him, a bald-faced fabricator). https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1118995502408671234 Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama, many of the destroyed Syrian churches and monuments PRECEDE Notre Dame. https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1118945629517099009 Permalink 2:32 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Arbitrage boundary pic.twitter.com/dsJGLqqxaE Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@GregorySMcMurry According to the De Broglie–Bohm theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Broglie%E2%80%93Bohm_theory Black Swan Man is correct. Any information that we could possibly obtain from the past wouldn’t help us because there are nonlocal hidden variables uniting our present & the past into one totality https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1118861754015080449 Permalink 1:37 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Better have these just OK, plus friends/family, plus ability to sleep well, than be a hot shot, billionaire, or King. @VerginDen has is right. https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1118868537706205186 Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Estonia. https://twitter.com/graafik/status/1118832590432215041 Permalink 6:43 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #blackswanmobile #timetravel #flaneuring #AmorFati pic.twitter.com/bVNkdyV05s Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@ThomasGrava La vraie différence en politique n’est pas une gradation “droite” vs “gauche” mais plutôt “Grecque” vs “Romaine”. “Grecque” préférant la théorie à la pratique. “Romaine” préférant la pratique à la théorie. (Théorie de la ‘Décentralisation Fractale’ @nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/HL8VbFTiRE Permalink 3:59 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Alas… https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1118503155581407232 Permalink 8:13 AM – 17 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Ship of Theseus. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1118349975606325248 Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ENTROPY DU JOUR The information content of your tweet is a (very) nonlinear function of the probability a subject NOT being discussed, or the language used not being bland & common. Same for conversation. Same for everything. Especially business. pic.twitter.com/2dYRqWnbJk Permalink 6:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #money Permalink 4:42 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 5 They don’t tell you that you are more likely + to learn a foreign language in a bar than in a classroom + to learn mathematics while trading than doing homework + that schoolteachers are a great model of what not to become when you grow up Permalink 2:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am surprised it is taking so long before someone finds in Hugo’s novel Notre Dame de Paris (The Hunchback of ND) a sentence that vaguely predicts yesterday’s fire. Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@FattestFatTony The pencil necks dont understand, @nntaleb is what the Jamaicans call a #Shotta… Likkle man, nah test nah #Shotta… https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1118226014113607681 Permalink 12:43 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@StillmanMD Doctors aren’t just #fooledbyrandomness, they’re taken for a ride by lying #BigPharma! @normonics @nntaleb @trishankkarthik @FattestFatTony https://twitter.com/JAMAInternalMed/status/1118167592710103043 Permalink 11:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 4 That debt helps growth & “innovation” (promoted by bankers) + Neither the Industrial Revolution (Brittain) nor the technological one (Silicon Valley) were financed by debt. + Debt is for wars, crony capitalism, bailing out friendly companies. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@EthanHBellamy Love this from @nntaleb. I’m the Chairman Mao of parenting. pic.twitter.com/O5HeNnQVan Permalink 8:03 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SCHOLARSHIPS FOR WOMEN ————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com Permalink 7:09 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In general, when people selfstyle themselves “entrepreneur”, “polymath”, or something of the sort, they’re not. Real entrepreneurs calls themselves “restaurant chain CEO”, “Ski equipment manufacturer”, “kidney imaging importer”… Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty, https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Politics_and_Ethics_under_Uncertainty https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/1118117227285426176 Permalink 4:46 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@tripoli187 So what are you trying to imply? That northern euros can lay claim to Mediterranean & near eastern civilisations of ancient antiquity, when culturally & racially they were not the same people & played no role? Permalink 12:14 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@normonics “A paper should be written like a car manual not a f#*$in chapter in a romance novel” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:53 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Learning about #IQ by turning @nntaleb teachings into cartoons. Simplifying to under 50 words without losing any content is hard. I hope I nailed it [IQ correlates, part 1 of x]. #science #psychology pic.twitter.com/ZuubQI8YIX Permalink 11:41 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Never pathologize (bounded) failure. Pathologize the refusal to try. Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t get that in real life one is not paid in frequency but in dollars. Fail frequently, stay convex. Learn to fail. https://twitter.com/michaelskolnik/status/1117788896321048577 Permalink 11:09 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) Phil the Rat Tetlock @ptetlock would probability spread “criticism” by fortune tellers if he found any. Here is how fake the article is. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116317447307526148 Permalink 9:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1) Academia is suicidal. In order to discredit me “Phil the rat” @Ptetlock (“repeatedly stab a friend in the back Phil tetlock”) spreads a linkbait written by a phantom “mathematician”, which he didn’t read (he didn’t realize there is NO fat tails in the discussion). pic.twitter.com/jLLQi7FkH0 Permalink 9:28 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point is that people who f***ck with you online don’t dare to do so offline. Permalink 9:22 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why is it that people are surprised to NOT find an ogre when they run into me offline? pic.twitter.com/9f6uTUXJ0d Permalink 9:15 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:10 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@holland_tom “#Naples is the most mysterious city in Europe, the only city of the ancient world which didn’t perish like Troy, Nineveh or Babylon. It’s the only city in the world which didn’t drown in the huge shipwreck of ancient civilization. Naples is a Pompei which was never buried.” Permalink 7:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 This is what @nntaleb has been saying https://twitter.com/humanprogress/status/1117600681219772416 Permalink 6:42 PM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/5KkDwNJPDS Permalink 8:57 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb MATHEMATICAL FINANCE DU JOUR A robust method for tail option pricing. pic.twitter.com/5LqIcg6Lth Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@n_santama Last week, we had the great luck of visiting Baalbek/Heliopolis (Greek for “Sun City”), a city inhabited uninterruptedly for 8-9000 years! It is built in the Bekaa valley, between the (still snowy) spectacular Eastern & Western Mountain ranges of Lebanon 1/9… #Baalbek #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Bm4KiN90M2 Permalink 1:08 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@MccluskyMark Super cool outcome of @nntaleb’s #rwri is the fun connections it’s led to, from complexity scientists like @normonics, rebel authors like @GuruAnaerobic, nocturnal philosophers like @trishankkarthik, market decoders like @mikeharrisNY and global oil magnates like @SeloSlav. pic.twitter.com/Cw8hsfvV9J Permalink 12:37 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And in Lucky Luke (a French cartoon), Averell Dalton is the most stupid. pic.twitter.com/zlzFUvpkj8 Permalink 9:19 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@AhsanDeliri I was wondering why @nntaleb is under so much noisy baseless attacks. Then it hit me. He studies the root of all fields in life. Risk under uncertainty. His works touch on medicine, politics, economics, business, health, nutrition, entrepreneurship, information theory. Permalink 8:39 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo pic.twitter.com/9wv47TkMGS Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb INVERSE QUIZ DU JOUR Is there a mistake of exposition? Or it is my derivation that is wrong. pic.twitter.com/FmoTKLq7NI Permalink 5:21 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated, implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@paulportesi Is it just me or is there an inordinate amount of noise directed at @nntaleb. It seems like record levels. Coming from every direction. He must be doing something right and striking a nerve. He’s agitating the enemy. Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@inlukka Light green shows the natural boundaries of the union. pic.twitter.com/7Qpk3KwuVE Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ozmudurvekili dear mr taleb the newly elected secular mayor of izmir wants to establish a mediterranean union pls rt & show support https://twitter.com/izmirbld/status/1115903326636445698 Permalink 11:29 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ggreenwald The only 2 times I can remember establishment liberals like @HillaryClinton and @SenSchumer uniting with and cheering Trump Admin is when (a) he bombed Syria and (b) they indicted Assange (Schumer also cheered moving embassy to Jerusalem). That says a lot about their values. Permalink 9:25 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The Ancient Egyptians represented females as light skinned, males as dark. Simply, sun exposure. [Met in NY] In 19tn C. Damascus, women were never exposed to the sun, with shielded inner gardens. To “stay white and avoid aging” (“la tdalla bayda w ma tja33éd”) pic.twitter.com/UDrBPgbXr8 Permalink 7:05 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 13) The National IQ/Skills regression. This charlatan, the researcher @GarettJones wants us to believe in *race=intelligence* but is not intelligent enough to hide from us the data points. You can draw a line of any slope into this. (cc:@EconTalker) pic.twitter.com/JuB9pl9wp1 Permalink 7:00 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@Brilliant_Ads True story pic.twitter.com/kkI1V2so4p Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@NateAFischer For years I’d seen @PeterRex do things that defied conventional wisdom but produced extraordinary results. In Antifragile @nntaleb helped me understand the rationale behind these actions. https://twitter.com/peterrex/status/1116399308750725121 Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 12) My latest details in the busting of “correlation” IQ-something. I noted that when I saw the graphs book by mountebank @CharlesMurray IQ is uninformative under nonlinearity. pic.twitter.com/VbeyCPbyTG Permalink 5:48 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And if you need to refer to race, use the 3 ROBUST geographical designations: Caucasian (i.e. Western Eurasian), Subsaharan, East Asian, (not more than 4). “White” is indicative of purity, not race. Permalink 5:13 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The first time we used “ergodic” in connection with the Precautionary Principle was in an unpublished paper with Aaron Brown in 2013. Before we knew of @ole_b_peters. But we didn’t formulate the math then. Earlier, presented in Fooled by Randomness. cc:@yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/cnBjxX8T04 Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb By “Nordicist” I mean Northern European supremacists. Permalink 4:40 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Don’t use “White Supremacist”. Use Nordicist. Please. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575 Permalink 4:34 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 11) David Becker is the source of the study: quite alarming handwaving with clueless statistics. In later papers they use “proxies” to obtain IQ. The author of the article is @JamesPsychol James Thompson, a nonacademic psychologic with SINISTER obsessions. pic.twitter.com/Nu9w5Kj0Zr Permalink 3:32 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is good news: people learning to take ergodicity into account for dynamics !!! pic.twitter.com/MP5G4138Iv Permalink 3:11 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Re: Roger Scruton. Why I no longer do interviews with UK journalists. Nobody should. https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2 Permalink 6:16 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@Firsou This is the thinnest building in Beirut, Al-Ba3sa aka “The Grudge”. It’s two feet wide at minimum and was built by one brother who wanted to obstruct another’s view of the sea. Is there a place for building out of spite in the eternal way @normonics ? pic.twitter.com/Ltgk5l0K9L Permalink 4:18 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 10) One can raise IQ points by 2 STF just by training, so it can’t be genetic. PS- I’ve been getting 1000s of such messages since I’ve posted the IQ piece by Nordist supremacist trolls. Incidentally, my “co-ethnics” score high on the test. pic.twitter.com/o6VWleKybQ Permalink 12:22 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM One person to a life partner:”I deal w/ mundane matters: where to live, what to eat, where to educate the children, etc. You focus on centrally important ones: geopolitical relations, tensions w/Russia, future of technology…” Let the State do the *important* things… Permalink 11:16 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@ddelruss People need to stop with IQ – NNT has already very publicly shown why it should not be used. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116342266195476481 Permalink 9:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 9) I am gently asking @zerohedge to retract that piece. Now. Permalink 7:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 6) Fail to get that growth is not driven by AVERAGE but by EXTREMES that depend on variance 7) Even if effect is as claimed, it is drowned into variance to make it usuable as immigration policy. 8) It is IMMORAL to emprison people in fake boxes!!! My PIECE https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 7:15 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) ALL of these studies fail to account for cultural aspects of testing. 3) Main researcher @GarettJones doesn’t know what NOISE means. 4) Similar previous “research” did same for Irish, Southern Slavs, etc. who have now caught w/rest 5) A few data points can flip IQ/Performance! Permalink 7:12 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: 1/n @ZeroHedge published a post on “country IQ” meant to justify that some races are “genetically inferior”, hence bound to remain poor because of genetic defects. 1) The article was written by a charlatan, James Thompson using shoddy statistics (see my Medium piece) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116074860449619968 Permalink 7:08 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@DineshDSouza Think of all the stuff we wouldn’t know without Assange. He was our media when we had no media to speak of. And we still don’t! Give the man a medal @wikileaks Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS ——————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com Permalink 5:47 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@derek_j_morris Confirmed it myself pic.twitter.com/R5lZKLzzcT Permalink 5:42 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The interesting thing is that it took one single @Wolfram Mathematica command to prove *by theorem* that the 2000K article in @NautilusMag is fraudulent and the author an impostor. One single command. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115684446081040386 Permalink 5:29 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb N7na zghar, w b3yun l a3adé kbar Hinné khashab 7awr, n7na lalkhashab minshar W7yét Zamzam wTiiba w l nabé l mkhtar Ma bnebné l deir illa min 7ajar 3akkar! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116093721597050880 Permalink 4:01 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Today, they made Jullian Assange a martyr. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Study something old but not visibly useful (classics), something modern and useful (accounting, coding), never something new and not visibly useful. Permalink 8:25 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@42cohen @nntaleb Exactly. I’ve repeatedly tutored students who were struggling and, simply by updating their “software” and creating real-world motivation, achieved psychometrically implausible results. Huge variance above 100 IQ renders it useless + dangerous. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU”> pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU Permalink 7:11 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem with the IQ-race quacks like @StefanMolyneux is that their talking points are designed to deal w/humanities schoolteachers. So a quack with the intellect of a guacamole dip like Molyneux who can’t tell a correlation from a fountain pen is a spokesman for “science”. pic.twitter.com/ZT5NIzRnkZ Permalink 4:09 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Mediterranean cultures actually have tall shaming. “homo lungus raro sapiens”, “tawil habil”, “Troppo lungo non fu mai buono”, “Uomo lungo, testa corta” etc. See Reich (2018) @Steve_Sailer The closer to old settled societies, the more tall shaming. Reverse in roaming hunters https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1116090455706333184 Permalink 2:40 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The beauty of physics is that it can rigorously predict things nobody has seen before, before the emergence of any empirical evidence. Compare to fraudulent fields like psychology that overfit from naive “empirical evidence” to predict nothing. https://twitter.com/NSF/status/1115964620186030080 Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Aramé kif ולי עמ נגאררב נכתב בלחרפ לאראמאי שו ביתלע מננא לשעלאי? Permalink 12:53 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Jarrabét éktob Llébnéné bl 3arabé. Ma 3am tmshé! Bl Latiné a7san bktir. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116061453235228673 Permalink 12:43 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb هاللء ازا كتبنا بلحرف هيدا بيمشي امما ما بيمشي؟ كيف بنكتوب لé؟ ولo/ou? Permalink 12:32 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Finally!!! https://twitter.com/eastmedmonitor/status/1116031424967204865 Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@DrCirillo A little preview of the forthcoming paper on “violence” with @nntaleb. pic.twitter.com/5dGLRHAPiN Permalink 10:41 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Excited to get the book of @NAChristakis as I am trying to go deeper into the notion of fractal (multiscale) localism & see what’s wrong w/my thesis: It isn’t individuals vs societies but fractal gradations, each w/specific dynamics, (contra the selfish gene philosophastering) pic.twitter.com/gbTxHrOKpu Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2019 Things to do list! https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/1115968097121259521 Permalink 6:57 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer https://www.academia.edu/38762815/Medicine_and_Risk_Transfer?source=swp_share via @academia Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating why you had to say it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:50 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@LieraMarco L’asimmetria nel trasferimento di rischi nella medicina. “Mi stai prescrivendo le statine perché mi fa bene o perché vuoi evitare che i miei eredi ti facciano causa?” E altri esempi. Problema molto americano e (ancora) poco italiano. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432 Permalink 4:48 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/eD1X3qQMU6 Permalink 4:37 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@normonics Both globalism AND nationalism are monolithic *absorbing* identities, smoothing over and homogenizing where there ought to be rich variety https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity Permalink 4:12 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@RandPaul A balanced federal budget isn’t a pie-in-the-sky dream or empty rhetoric. Once again, I am introducing a concrete plan that is achievable. Learn more here: https://www.paul.senate.gov/news/dr-rand%C2%A0paul-introduces-%E2%80%98pennies-plan%E2%80%99-balanced-budget ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b”> pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b Permalink 7:50 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@MilenaRodban My fellow Americans, the tax preparation industry and its powerful lobby are abominations that continue to wield undue influence over our lives. We must unite against it. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/congress-is-about-to-ban-the-government-from-offering-free-online-tax-filing/ Permalink 6:59 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@KendraSirak I’m getting excited for our session #AncientDNAinServiceofArchaeology to be held at #SAA2019. Looking forward to seeing many of our colleagues from both archaeology and genetics on Friday (4/12) from 1-5pm in 110 Galisteo (session 253) @JakobSedig pic.twitter.com/vQdbVgTj4U Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@thackerpd Province gave $720K to fired chief medical officer Eilish Cleary https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/eilish-cleary-health-settlement-1.4191543 Radio-Canada took Health Department to court to make severance information public “When fired, Cleary was studying #glyphosate, a controversial herbicide used extensively in New Brunswick” Permalink 6:12 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@Monsantobuster Taleb’s is a peer-reviewed published paper. If it was “wrong”, why didn’t pseudomathematician Clayton (who has NO publications) write to journal? It is shameful that academics spread this smear campaign by Nate Silver ag. Taleb Paper here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@ektrit I owe it to Taleb @nntaleb to understand that ethno-orthodoxy is basically Single God Paganism, you know, Christ helps only my people, not yours. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1115583251458985984 Permalink 4:57 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Paganism is decentralized theology.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:52 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The asymmetry comes from the fact that someone very very incompetent will be incompetent at everything. Someone competent at something may be domain specific. That raises correlation IQ-performance between .12 and .4 Permalink 6:48 PM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Did you read my paper, Mr Caroll to decide whether he knows anything about it? Permalink 11:23 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Tony, a year later. (Fellow trader Anthony Glickman, aka rabbi Ozer Glickman). “Life is long gamma”, he said. https://twitter.com/markric41763223/status/1115302776307896321 Permalink 10:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid Nassim’s originality and insights always surprises me even when he makes a simple comment for a medical paper. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432 Permalink 10:02 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risks, a comment invited by @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/VJRvfup5aS Permalink 8:56 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Visibly, people are now getting my point. https://twitter.com/crimsonceo/status/1115238408690053122 Permalink 7:22 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Humanities degrees are very valuable (w/o ideological professors), provided it is complemented with real world apprenticeships (accounting, etc.) . It is degrees in psychology and social “science” full of theories that are not just worthless but work in reverse. https://twitter.com/greekhistorypod/status/1114966071746994178 Permalink 5:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IQ not even useful for clinical cases:∃ targeted tsts. A Serbian doctor who works w/dementia/Alzheimer reached out to say my IQ post was circulating in his circles (& psychologists hate it): Doctors use dementia-specific cues; nothing to do with IQ. https://twitter.com/KourdaN/status/1115209819449974784 Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More general case, the proportion pic.twitter.com/K1rT6KBmpy Permalink 4:08 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point of adding dead people to your sample is to show the effect of the asymmetry: 1) it you hit someone on the head w/a hammer, he will be bad at everything (hence correlation), 2) there is no reverse equivalent. So IQ effects come from borderline clinical people. GAbish? Permalink 3:04 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@MacDBollinger Mr Taleb @nntaleb I must recommend you and your followers to watch Youtubechannel Swedish Investors excellent graphic summary of your books. Fantastik work! @InvestorSwedish https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEesADB0Jk0&list=PLI84Sf0aDgaw-Wy93jPAw4gcNxzNwpP9s&index=3 Permalink 2:31 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaned up on the plane home between twitter arguments. pic.twitter.com/ROQpNofqyU Permalink 4:30 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some analytics on the ride home from #LibertyCon19: IQ #RacePeddlersIgnorantofProbabilitySuchAsTheQuackPeterson don’t get the effect of the equivalent of adding dead people to your sample. pic.twitter.com/vWIq5rCPQn Permalink 3:38 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ If you include 20% dead people in IQ tests, what will the minimum correlation IQ/performance be if the rest is random? #nonlinearity Permalink 12:45 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delta’s olive oil is olive oil. Air France’s is 65% seed oil. When you hire “managers” w/o the filtering of SITG, they cut corners (Boeing, Air France, paper quality for publishers) and save pennies. But the manager improved “profitability”. Like short tail options for a tick. pic.twitter.com/zPtnR1gSJD Permalink 12:25 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 2/2 This passage, from Taleb’s The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tales especially comes to mind. I think 10 years ago I would have read and just moved on, now I’m finally starting to better understand the way of thinking this passage describes pic.twitter.com/BMI1N3ROmG Permalink 8:56 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 1/2. I’m rereading When Genius Failed – probably for the 30th time – because I like to understand decision making under stress. As I read it this time I have a better understanding of how much I’ve learned from @nntaleb in the last decade pic.twitter.com/uAsNhRpxt3 Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is exactly what I presented at #LibertyCon19: Liberty applies to all scales. No entity (s.a. what this idiot is advocating) should ever impose a national identity on your group, regardless of whether you’re wrong abt your own history (& we’re not). https://twitter.com/7ossain1/status/1114814847672377351 Permalink 7:57 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed modernity is stripping some people of their dignity. https://twitter.com/pravind_paul/status/1114771835508277250 Permalink 12:37 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed, Steve Stuart-Williams is a charlatan. He knows it because he keeps posting unrigorous cherrypicked IQ propaganda. These techniques are NOT predictive. pic.twitter.com/7j70nPUiOQ Permalink 3:39 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@NachoOliveras Indeed. The presenter mentioned round-up (gliphosate) and GMOs as an example of anti-science scaremongers in his punchline. Just remember @nntaleb heuristic for any shill conflating the two on a public platform, works as magic! https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1114170782979174401?s=19 Permalink 1:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@vacimovic Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb & Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan – lecture and conversation in Belgrade. #LibertyCon19 pic.twitter.com/CmHUR0KbAe Permalink 12:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@pietercleppe .@nntaleb at #LibertyCon19 Belgrade: In its well-known cartoon, The @NewYorker conflates economists and bureaucrats with real experts, pilots, who have “skin in the game” pic.twitter.com/dMAbl23rWK Permalink 8:26 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@d_pavlovic Belgrade: @nntaleb and @BrankoMilan discuss risk, skin in the game, and income inequality. pic.twitter.com/cBhQlfI04q Permalink 8:24 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My cousin @GeorgeJNasr started a #Flaneuring hashtag. It should have strict rules: NOTHING TOURISTIC. A flaneur is the reverse tourist. See touristification in #Antifragile. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114298575394103296 Permalink 6:29 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Debating @BrankoMilan in about 1 ½ hours https://twitter.com/petitemilica/status/1113809022447247360 Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Tail Option Pricing Under Fat Tails — A deceivingly simple but yuuuuugely robust model. Where we show that the methods used to claim that “tail options are expensive” are highly unrigorous. pic.twitter.com/QMn3qdc7Tv Permalink 5:33 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. I have been debating Branko who holds DIAMETRICALLY opposed opinions because he is a scholar. Probability is technical and Silver is not a scholar. One does not debate BS vendors. Permalink 5:21 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Belgrade is full of charm & a great flaneuring city. Perfect size (`1m), some parts are renovated, others look like they have been forgotten by history, which makes them mysterious, real, and at times, gripping. Food is ⅓ Ottoman, People look 3/8 Ottoman Marvelous pic.twitter.com/xzI3BXVpSx Permalink 3:47 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Thread by Dhruv who is the other researcher who got the same result I did. Unlike Bullshit Nate, he doesn’t have 3 mil twitter followers. Jut ~ 50. His paper is on the thread. He is more polite than me with Bullshit Nate, but same result. @EconTalker https://twitter.com/DhruvMadeka/status/1114252281636098049 Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb @BrankoMilan’s school windows have mesh and lattices. Permalink 2:53 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Branko’s elementary school in the background. I observed that it looked like a jail. He wasn’t thrilled with my comment. pic.twitter.com/CYxRgWUWo5 Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ما جادلت عالمًا إلا غلبته, وما جادلت جاهلًا إلا غلبني Permalink 8:19 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@lkcashin Watching Bayer stock tumble is a thing of beauty. Monsanto is a cancer upon the earth. Biodiversity suffers in every region Monsanto stretches its dirty tentacles and GMF’s are an environmental time-bomb in the making. @nntaleb #fuckmonsanto #goorganic #Cancer #gm Permalink 7:50 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bullshit Nate, you can fool your audience, not professionals. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid The M4-Competition using 100,000 series, comparing 61 F/cing methods was followed by the M4 F/cing Conference in NYC where its findings were presented Now a special issue of IJF with 33 papers on all aspects of M4 from top academics and practitioners from big tech firms @fotpetr pic.twitter.com/QcihLtbaq3 Permalink 6:36 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb J2b haplogroup epicenter is Serbia. pic.twitter.com/BeADCT4mN2 Permalink 6:34 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How Silver thinks he can bullshit us. pic.twitter.com/DJcAj9vKRL Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Ase, I have attended 4 RWRI and discovered that most of the people that go understand AF “up to a point”… And get lost in theory. Practical AF needs to be a topic… obviously associated with complexity and risk. other topics: AI, entrepreneurship; localism, etc. Permalink 5:35 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Bureaucracy is a construction designed to maximize the distance between a decision-maker and the risks of the decision.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Mandelbrot #fractals #chaos pic.twitter.com/nSLnoWesJn Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 3 The “law of large numbers” almost never works for socioeconomic variables. See Chapters 6-8. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ Permalink 8:58 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@GMWatch New Brunswick’s chief medical officer was working on a study on #glyphosate when she was suddenly put on leave and then fired. Dr. Cleary had already said that she and her staff concurred with the IARC finding that glyphosate was a probable carcinogen https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/archive/2015/16587-dr-eilish-cleary-is-fired-while-studying-glyphosate https://twitter.com/GMWatch/status/1113691587232579586 Permalink 7:46 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Adriatic squid ink (risotto) pic.twitter.com/ynX3ltI0Lp Permalink 6:37 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My lectshur will be on localism and convexity. My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 3:35 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In Belgrade for flaneuring with my former ex-Ottoman (& ex-Byzantine) compatriots @BrankoMilan and @PredragBrajovic, and to debate Branko at #LibertyCon19 Permalink 3:31 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@NeilNRockville I just got through that section of Antifragile, and it blew my mind that he predicted it so closely, then I looked back at it in retrospect and it was clear why it was so predictable… Permalink 5:45 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM: Why tribal links are important for survival & fail w/abstract universalism: you’d rather love your child w/intensity 1 & save her from drowning > love 1000 strangers each w/intensity .001 ALL Nonlinearities lead to convex effects #antifragility https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity Permalink 4:58 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 2 Semitic & Indo European languages appear to BOTH emerge from the same area in the Caucasus-Zagros-Anatolia, owing to proximity of agricultural vocabulary & similar original pop. genetics. Current linguistic categories are unrigorous. @Safaitic Permalink 3:21 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 1 That correlation is a measure of relationship betw 2 variables. It is very rarely so. Few understand how correlation requires 1) no subsampling, 2) strict linearity… and its interpretation is nonlinear: 90% correlation >>> 80%. pic.twitter.com/9fCv0f6YXJ Permalink 3:17 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@kiwiandroiddev This article calls to mind @nntaleb’s Antifragile: “Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems like a waste if nothing unusual happens. Except that something unusual happens – usually.” https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/a-lack-of-redundancies-on-737-max-system-has-baffled-even-those-who-worked-on-the-jet/ Permalink 12:44 AM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Damn good. pic.twitter.com/QD0rF32l7z Permalink 11:03 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@holland_tom Huge thanks to @nntaleb for his kind words… #Dominion https://twitter.com/LaraHeimert/status/1113104190014984194 Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And, BTW, the only enterprise that did fail more than “secular Arabism ” under a centralized state over the past century is perhaps the attempt to make a collection of pigs sing the Latin version of Te Deum in a syncronized way in a Gothic Cathedral. But not sure. Permalink 4:19 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb OVERT CLUELESSNESS These croissants are bought for ~$.40 to $.80. The markup comes from the monopoly given to the concession. @AOC is the logical empiricist’s nightmare. https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1112739837822582784 Permalink 3:27 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb High time to make my decision public. https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1112715864850128898 Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb There is no depth in Peterson. A modicum of insight wrapped in marketing BS, unrigorous psycholophastering (IQ, Big 5, 5 humors) masquerading as scholarship. In short, a quack. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1112741408979353601 Permalink 8:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Booked a table! https://twitter.com/Toni_Bader93/status/1109188645955792897 Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb These dumb fucks at @metmuseum were trying to illustrate their theories of “Middle East identity” showing a Hellenistic sarcophagus from Sidon with… Greek inscriptions on it. Permalink 5:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Since ~1100 BC Phoenicians (then “Lebanese”) have been the MOST MEDITERRANEAN of pples: look at food/behavior/looks. But since 1860 some low-Intellect Westerners (Arabists & founders of AUB, etc.) have decided de-Mediterraneanize (initially de-Ottomanize) to satisfy “identity” Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@trishankkarthik Everyone should drop what they’re doing, and read this paper right now Sometimes doctors have independently discovered special applications of this idea (e.g., ventilation machine), but it surprises me that they haven’t tried applying the same idea more generally (e.g., cancer) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1112694075084472320 Permalink 5:36 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tQimRV7n5M Permalink 5:32 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1 /2 That is the idea of statistical distribution of harm #Antifragility /second order effects in Medicine. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1112528982807904256 Permalink 5:31 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IDENTITY MONGERS “Art and Identity in the Ancient Middle East” at @metmuseum: Edward Said-style identity mongers proceed to destroy the notion of cosmopolitan localism/Mediterraneanism of the Phoenicians. It shows the horrors of non-localist Nationalism. 1/n pic.twitter.com/AT4U1TW0zK Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@VergilDen On this April 1st morning I’m reminded of that time years ago when @nntaleb & I were in Italy and we deadlifted, rented a Black Swan Lambo & tore up Rome. Then we drove up the coast to meet Umberto Eco at his Villa. We perused his antilibrary & ate squid ink pasta. Good times. pic.twitter.com/SRwykqA3Fb Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@Gore_Burnelli One of the habits I’ve acquired from reading @nntaleb’s books is to always be skeptical whenever an academic declares a working system to be “backwards”, “medieval”. See for example Robert Sapolsky’s take on the American criminal justice system @ 23:18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61tChpN3lhY#t=23m18 Permalink 5:07 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “The virtuous worry about their integrity, lesser humans (say, academics) about their reputation.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:23 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher. Permalink 12:39 PM – 30 Mar 2019

Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war | Isaac Faber

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Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war

I think, however, this is a great opportunity for a data science professional (or aspiring professional) to dig deeper into what is being said. There are implications on how we choose to model and present our work in a reliable and verifiable way. You must decide for yourself if Taleb has a point or is a just another crazy rich person with too much time on his hands.

Saudi Barbaria, Saudi Regime, Milan, Nate Silver | Twitter

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Nassim Taleb & Naval Ravikant at BlockCon 2018 – Transcript | Michael Malo

@nntaleb Almost 6,000 votes. 54% – 46% https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1063475218038079488 Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Well, looks like investors in http://Optionsellers.com are liable for more losses than they put in. Also the argument 76% options expire worthless by the 2 charlatans. With Niederhoffer the losses were up to 400% of funds; Refco hid the additional losses in fake accounting. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NZ5Hm89yah”> pic.twitter.com/NZ5Hm89yah Permalink 9:02 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The megafragility of the country currently known as Saudi Arabia: it is short monstrous amounts of out of the money puts on oil. Just imagine the devastation if oil hits $45, $30, $20, …$10. https://twitter.com/umeshranglani/status/1063701959922745345 Permalink 4:11 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb (I mean tail option selling. You can sell volatility in the body and buy the tails with finite losses, locally concave globally convex. Butterflies plus strangles/Christmas trees.) Permalink 2:21 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb No option seller survives … Selling is nonergodic. https://twitter.com/umeshranglani/status/1063701959922745345 Permalink 11:56 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A toast to the future Republic(s) of Najd, Hijaz, and Sharqiyya!!! https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-concludes-saudi-journalist-was-killed-on-the-crown-princes-order-1542412388 via @WSJ Permalink 4:08 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb This is dishonorable, even for criminal organizations. Saudi regime executes pple following orders. Now no more witness… This break a mafia honor rule. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1063484345535492096 From now on, “Saudi Regime” in place of “Saudi Barbaria” owing to decent pple in Najd/Hijaz/Eastern Permalink 2:31 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So Mr @aubreyclayton, calling a paper “garbage” and posing for a hotshot in probability is nice but your interpretation is … garbage. Read, think, then react. pic.twitter.com/WctHNjwUfA Permalink 1:25 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Mr @aubreyclayton, you didn’t read the paper, do the math. See the note eliminating your confusion. The convergence would then be at 10/90, as the upper bound is the poll. The pull to 50% is because people make 90% odds off polls at .52%. https://twitter.com/aubreyclayton/status/1063538489126465536 Permalink 1:19 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My developing heuristic is that a respectable calorie-neutral Flaneuring requires: + In Milan/Bologna/Turin, >18,000 steps (w/desert), + In Rome/Naples/Palermo, >15000 + In New York, > 14,000 + in Tokyo, > 5,000 (portions are small!) pic.twitter.com/kyX6OpifmZ Permalink 9:34 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@amconmag “Paul noted that Saudi Arabia’s role in the Middle East was overall a destructive one. Riyadh, he noted, has spent $100 billion exporting extreme Wahabbist Islam to places as far away as Indonesia and funding madrassas that teach hatred” in other nations. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/rand-paul-saudi-arabia-is-number-one-at-spreading-terror-yemen-iran-russia/ Permalink 9:00 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So this week, while flaneuring in Italy, I was twitter mobbed by + Saudi twitter bots & trolls, & +Klueless Nate’s (@NateSilver538) followers (he has 3 Mil). Silver is nervous for his reputation (losses $6m annually). Who is more stupid? Permalink 8:53 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Ketchum in court documents (the Monsanto papers) https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/919748359564312577 Permalink 8:24 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Pedophrasty: use of children in the Ketchum signature. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 8:23 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Ketchum ran the smear campaigns on behalf of Monsanto. Including yours truly. They asked me for a lecture for a yuuuge banking convention. Note the virtue signaling in the signature. pic.twitter.com/177LW5jayG Permalink 8:19 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Comparative study of: 1) Sea urchins (spaghetti) 2) Bottarga (tagliolini) pic.twitter.com/n4PZf89Cub Permalink 4:53 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Pandemics are fat tailed (usually) https://youtu.be/9dKiLclupUM Permalink 3:42 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yes but bacteria can be more lethal. Permalink 2:20 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Get ready for the next one. Either antibiotic resistant made in hospitals or something multiplicative that travels on British Air … Cc: @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/philipcball/status/1063362984586723328 Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Why is Nate Silver @NateSilver538 misrepresenting my book? in bad faith? https://twitter.com/darius1296/status/1063198970808283136?s=21 Permalink 2:48 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My Milanese friends who also “have friends” making sure it is a “low risk experience”… pic.twitter.com/Wdbu41XXhq Permalink 2:36 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@Valentin_Decker > Pourquoi le conflit israélo-palestinien dure t-il depuis aussi longtemps ? > Pourquoi le Pape est-il en réalité un athée ? > Pourquoi la minorité intolérante l’emporte sur la majorité flexible ? Mon résumé de l’excellent “Jouer sa peau” de @nntaleb : https://valentindecker.com/lectures/jouer-sa-peau-nassim-taleb/ Permalink 1:36 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Costoletta alla Milanese con tartufo bianco & cassoeula pic.twitter.com/K6NctuJpVt Permalink 1:07 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb NO MORE FAT TAILS @DrCirillo prevailed upon me to rename Fat Tails “Thick Tails” because Thich Tails is more general than Fat Tails. In some circles Fat Tails mean Power Laws Gaussian->Thick Tails> Subexponential ~Heavy Tails>Fat Tails. pic.twitter.com/igtLFveCEi Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Butthurt Klueless Nate @NateSilver538 lost his marbles in his road rage. Writes I haven’t written a new book since 2001 while insulting me using 2 concepts “IYI” & “skin in the game” that are… from my 2018 book. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062782704159256576 BTW, I still have skin in the game Permalink 9:16 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb But… I am not angry, to the contrary. Just trying to get some entertainment. https://twitter.com/RousselRuthanne/status/1063109687413882881 Permalink 8:43 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3- To summarize, aging is Lindy; what is novel is aging for the non-elite. If anyone can live long, there is no signaling. (BTW you learn more from @holland_tom’s tweets than from uni lecktchurs). https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/918463935011057665 Permalink 8:32 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb In other words, it is quite shabby for @NAteSilver to boast his 2016 performance and hide this: https://twitter.com/RealFacelessMan/status/1062871402133413888 Gabish? Permalink 8:14 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Mr @rZadek, @henryimiller has been fired from Forbes, Project Syndicate and (perhaps thanks to me), the Hoover Institution because it was discovered that Monsanto ghostwrites his articles. Gabish? https://twitter.com/rzadek/status/1063096326433341440 Permalink 7:50 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb In a nutshell, what Klueless Nate @NateSilver538 doesn’t get is the PRINCIPLE that it is not ONE forecast that matters for track record, but ALL the forecasts made per election. That principle we’ve known since De Finetti; I adapted it to continuous time & derived properties. Permalink 7:24 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@tparsi Senator @RandPaul does not hold back. Points out that it is Saudi Arabia and not Iran that is spreading the radicalized version of Islam that has attacked America and radicalized and destabilized much of the Islamic world. Wins him applause at #TAC_Con. Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2- Some memory “loss” w/age may be efficient filtering. You get better at predicting what you need to remember. Don’t immediately assume senescence. But bad bones/osteopenia weaken memory in animal models (Karsenti). Most moderns have sick bones at 50. Do heavy weightlifting! Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 1- Retirement is not Lindy as previous generations had a short aging window. Your knowlege is maximal when close to death. Age used to correlate with survival skills, genetic fitness, physical strength, and wisdom. No longer. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1063056382906122240 Permalink 5:18 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Il Saggiatore, publishing house in Milan. pic.twitter.com/dtNJUhAyjJ Permalink 2:38 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A note on serial correlation and the 4 population test pic.twitter.com/nvP9GBGx9V Permalink 8:55 PM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Ossobuco a la Milanese pic.twitter.com/H655lLIsfb Permalink 1:14 PM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Italians lie about Milan. They are instructed to say it is ugly so tourists leave them alone. Milan is so secretive it took half of a dozen visits to figure out the place. Permalink 11:20 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4- The Saudi Mob figured out where I am hiding in Riyadh! Procedures to expel me (If I am very lucky)… https://twitter.com/0zzil_/status/1062731824227647490 Permalink 7:46 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb No, klueless Nate @NateSilver538 Forecasting elections isn’t Nate Silver’s thing. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062542399027793920 Permalink 7:43 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The Phoenicia-East Med Research Project has started. pic.twitter.com/CXzXV2njDO Permalink 4:39 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Where I discover that: + Saudis don’t have a public sense of humor; can’t possibly conceive that someone can pull a prank. + You can even let them know it is a prank; they’ll take the rest seriously. + They are incapable of harming anyone outside their consulates, even then. Permalink 4:12 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@drdrasko Brilliant. @nntaleb “Skin in the game: you tend to know a lot of stuff that you wouldn’t guess you need to know from the outside. That’s why machine learning is successful because it has no idea what is outside.” https://twitter.com/googletalks/status/1062459392971415552 Permalink 2:37 PM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2- While Saudi mobs kept spouting all manner of epithets (mainly racial), the most mysterious insult for Saudis appears to be “frm the suburbs” “”The barbarian is at the shoe of the master in the suburb O brother of the winter we are out owl of poverty” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1062303526053920769 Permalink 1:24 PM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The story is HILAAAAAAAAAARIOUS. Some of my tweets during the Kashoggi period showed for location Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Someone discovered them yesterday and a total frenzy ensued, with people searching for me there (they still are), and MBS’s electronic army throwing insults. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1062022037416357888 Permalink 10:27 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb When I hear people wondering why I am “qualified” ag “experts” for risks of GMOs, Semitic philology, & ancient UK population. Just as roulette is a branch of probability, not carpentry, genetics & linguistics are minor branches of applied probability. Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1061793657228013568 Permalink 6:16 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The British philosopher Austin said in a tawk that although a double negative in English implies a positive meaning, there is no language in which a double positive implies a negative. Sydney Morgenbesser responded: “Yeah, yeah.” https://twitter.com/QuikQuak/status/1062336636535689217 Permalink 5:53 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I just realized that Milan isn’t Mediterranean, that is *butter not olive oil* (according to the Gallic Wars); perhaps it would be anathema to consume seppia there. Osso buco would be preferable. Permalink 5:23 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yeah, yeah, yeah… https://www.wsj.com/articles/khashoggi-tape-doesnt-implicate-saudi-prince-says-john-bolton-1542113090 via @WSJ Permalink 5:18 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@Jaffer22915438 Someone like NNT putting himself on the line with Monsanto, Saudi Arabia and others doing nothing and just cheering him on; Cheering for the military while you sit safely at home watching football… Permalink 4:48 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@Complexity_Labs pic.twitter.com/Zj1RrIXgt5 Permalink 4:08 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Friends, time for something serious. What is the best squid ink restaurant (nero di seppia) in Milan? Thanks! Permalink 3:49 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The Saudis are still not catching me… But they are producing mysterious insults worth examining in a comparative literature class. Most insist “they don’t care about me” (an insult), some claim I am a Shiite in disguize and I am “from the suburbs” (an insult). pic.twitter.com/8SHcPKBDGu Permalink 3:17 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My new correspondents/ pen pals. https://twitter.com/davesthomson/status/1062096201560993792 Permalink 1:42 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Pple believe in a historical trend agst social conservatism. No: history is punctuated w/spontaneous emergence of puritanism. Holding a baloon under water: From Roman mores to Victorian prudishness, pre-Islamic Arabia,1970s Iran, & 1960s Maghreb to … ISIS. Next…France. Permalink 1:40 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb They are reaaaaaaaaaally annoyed. https://twitter.com/sahli_reem/status/1062090493213982720 Permalink 1:12 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb And the usual (flattering) death threats. https://twitter.com/Mohamed20048262/status/1062085176484859904 Permalink 12:54 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/Yarimatahari/status/1062082319111077888 Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The reasons the Saudis haven’t been able to catch me (so far): https://twitter.com/FattestFatTony/status/1062075946587570177 Permalink 12:21 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb They are reaaaallllly looking for me in Riyadh. Many Saudi have alerted the authorities. I may be subjected to beheading… https://twitter.com/theproudsaudi1/status/1062007083422416896 Permalink 11:43 AM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb HILARIOUS The Saudis are after me thinking I am in Saudi Arabia! https://twitter.com/fa_alshehrii/status/1062009057484009473 Permalink 8:39 AM – 12 Nov 2018

@JonathanWaxman1 @nntaleb I think you will like this. Exposing shills who hide in ‘Think Tanks’ by forcing them to declare in which games they actually have skin. https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1061744315012128768 Permalink 1:05 AM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Improved on the paper pic.twitter.com/iDkcp9LS4N Permalink 5:31 PM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The sucker problem is to think that those for whom you feel compassion would also feel compassion for those weaker and more afflicted than they are. Permalink 1:36 PM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The checks go to administrators, tenured faculty, and real estate developers. (Universities exploit adjucts & grad students.) Give your money to starving adjuncts. https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/1061431560010940416 Permalink 8:10 AM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The best summary of my central idea. https://twitter.com/rj7050/status/1061425555097161730 Permalink 1:37 AM – 11 Nov 2018

@Ekaitzsaies The Basque Meet-Up for discussing @nntaleb ‘s ideas was one of the most inspiring experiences thanks to everyone that took part in it. Maestro Taleb you should join us next time! @GuruAnaerobic @jacoporomei @urtatses pic.twitter.com/fpntYdTycg Permalink 1:06 AM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Astrology is Lindy; it reincarnated as economics/social science. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1061411581475610626 Permalink 5:20 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A pol. science education from 50 y ago (Corm’s) teaches EXACTLY backwards: nation-state, centralization, size, Arabization, etc. “Balkanization” is meant to be bad. These pple have never heard of Switzerland/subsidiarity. Will cancel/not renew my subscription to @LOrientLeJour https://twitter.com/LOrientLeJour/status/1061237966989938688 Permalink 4:46 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Time to pick the format for both the book and the logo of the new STEM Academic publishing house. pic.twitter.com/2s8fajuEV3 Permalink 3:44 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Indeed Anatolia https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1061360811535405056 Permalink 12:54 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb That’s Anatolia for you. https://twitter.com/lecths/status/1061349668880310273 Permalink 12:46 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I think I got it right plus or minus n^p I am now a co-author on a technical paper in genetics. pic.twitter.com/Cztd4k3IIO Permalink 7:06 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb “Making sense and being right are not the same ting” (sic) — Fat Tony #skininthegame https://twitter.com/shouvanikc/status/1061259246409519104 Permalink 6:47 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A Twelver Shiite friend attending service at Saint Nicholas’ Greek Orthodox Cathedral in Beirut, pointed out at the 12 apostles and calmly said: “you too”. pic.twitter.com/NMwGpQWuBj Permalink 6:46 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@fpenido Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb @paulkrugman and @elonmusk The main difference between a BS vendor (Krugman) and a doer (Musk) is that a doer, necessarily, has scars. #IntelectualYetIdiot https://twitter.com/leandroruschel/status/1061243652163452930 Permalink 5:32 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@BLebnene adonish nka7ash/nsha7at mnl yoga via @jadabdala check it out and retweet! w l 5ér la 2eddém #lebanese #lebanon #lebneene cc: @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jadabdala/status/1061241508219797504 Permalink 5:00 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Why the best surgeons might look like butchers. pic.twitter.com/p1UbKDjGbl Permalink 10:20 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Everyone seems to be making the mistake of ergodicity: The rich of 2015 are NOT necessarily those of 2000. In the U.S. 85% of the rich were not so in earlier periods. These static analyses by economists and psychologists are BS. I noted that only pple w #Skininthegame get it. https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1058853678512259074 Permalink 9:37 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Used to be seductive & thrilling for thinkers to counter the then repressive Church dogma, w/the appeal of forbidden fruit. It’s starting to be more seductive to counter the currently repressive PC dogma than conform. University monokultchurists are too stupid to realize it. Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My first technical foray into genetics. Encountered the 4-population test, deriving the “estimation error”. pic.twitter.com/n959cJcxXn Permalink 5:49 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The camera adds 12.6 pounds. Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “Skin in the Game” | Talks at Google https://youtu.be/uv6KLbkvua8 via @YouTube Permalink 4:34 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@ProbFact Inferring where data came from based on tail probabilities https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2018/07/17/attribution/ Permalink 1:15 PM – 8 Nov 2018

@nntaleb And odds it came via Syriac pic.twitter.com/VTj4CVsZSg Permalink 9:59 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: Borj ( برج ) [TOWER] comes from Πύργος itself from the Urartian Burgana (unless it came directly from Burgama. Permalink 9:56 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Deadlifting trains you to lift heavy objects, not so much to ski hard slopes. Permalink 8:13 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So to clarify, the statement is: “You learn disproportionally more from tails of distributions than you do from their center.” Gabish? Permalink 8:12 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@PithyThought I’m often simultaneously annoyed by your aura of arrogance and impressed by the clarity of your reasoning. Permalink 7:29 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Not my point @yaneerbaryam. My point is that if you want to practice skiing, you learn disproportionally more from hard runs (tail events) than from slopes for beginner. Just as you gain more from lifting extremes (from convexity) than regular weights. Revise that stuff. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1060205836595855360 Permalink 7:21 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 8- Pple forget that history is thousands of years and give you salient anecdotes that effectively dilute when seen locally (as per year or lifetime) Always funny to see pple like @AdamRutherford lecture people on pseudoscience then miss elementary things from high school math. Permalink 10:03 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 7- The above thread shows why journos are BS vendors, even with a PhD. cc:@AdamRutherford https://twitter.com/AdamRutherford/status/1060101363621879808 Permalink 9:27 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- This argument explains why historians talking about migration rates in the middle ages > .00005 are wrong (that is close to zero; today’s rates are yuuuge by comparison). A tiny rate of migration multiplies… pic.twitter.com/az2B0AwMOZ Permalink 9:20 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb En politique, comme en amour Ni jamais, ni toujours. (In politics as in love, never say never, never say forever). A huge surprise. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1060193577861595136 Permalink 9:05 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ Announcing the M4 Forecasting Conference to be held on December 10/11 in New York. The Conference will elaborate on the findings of M4 Competition that will be discussed and elaborated by prominent speakers from leading business firms and top universities (See Day 1 program). pic.twitter.com/yjSIt2qkK4 Permalink 6:34 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@mathtick I think this discussion is lost in semantics and politics … I think @nntaleb is not saying small migration in 1000 years, instead saying a low rate of migration PER GENERATION PER PERSON hence the sustained genetic diversity *across* regions. Please correct if I’m wrong. Permalink 2:46 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5- What the globalist idiots don’t realize is that migration is as counterintuitive as compound interest. Had we had a migration rate similar to what we have today over 5-10 C, there would be no differenciation between populations. Very similar to entropy. pic.twitter.com/nZWoS02S9k Permalink 12:41 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4- Historians, anecdote-gatherers, and other entertainers are way behind; genetic evidence is like paternity tests. The last 5 years brought a yuuuge overhaul of beliefs. https://twitter.com/patrick_wyman/status/1060066901873745925?s=21 Permalink 11:59 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3- Tiny rates of migration such as .5% per century can lead to big cumulative effects such as Subsaharan gene flow into Egypt … Permalink 11:44 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2- Even places that underwent yuuuuuge ethnocultural changes such as Turkey show little gene flow. Turkey has tiny Turkic genes. Historians are clueless about migrations. Permalink 11:34 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb There were no migrations in the Middle ages except towards empty steppes. #genetics #scholarshipwithoutBSishardIknow https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1059516283916558336 Permalink 8:42 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@SamParkerSenate Believe it or not, this was my campaign slogan & theme earlier this year : Make American Government Local Again. #MAGLA pic.twitter.com/1rz9Ovgp05 Permalink 2:43 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Skin in the game https://twitter.com/GKCdaily/status/1059929363334991874 Permalink 2:35 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@EvanMcM About 5 years ago, I was incensed by reading @nntaleb ‘s suggestion that one can be ‘“over-informed”, that newspapers were useless. Now, I think perhaps he didn’t convey this point strongly enough. Permalink 1:45 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb French fries cooked in extra virgin local olive oil. Beware seed oil. (Northern Phoenicia) . cc: @Mangan150 (corrected earlier typo) pic.twitter.com/kXN8G2pv8h Permalink 10:54 AM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump’s attitude to Iran: EITHER + Trump is a businessman not interested in situations rotting & permanent 40y tensions, trying to get a better deal than Obama. He is just bargaining. OR + Trump is serving the neocon agenda plus that of some other states. Permalink 2:56 PM – 5 Nov 2018

@baumhedlund #BaumHedlundLaw Attorneys Discuss Monsanto Roundup Litigation at UCLA Law Event https://www.baumhedlundlaw.com/11-18-bhag-roundup-litigation-ucla/ Permalink 2:08 PM – 5 Nov 2018

@shikhar394 Nero: “Signore Ingeniere Tony, some of these tie-wearers are very rich, even richer than you.” Tony: “Nero, you sucker. Don’t be fooled by money. These are just numbers. Being self-owned is a state of mind.” @nntaleb #antifragile Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@Jaffer22915438 Choice? Narcissism of small differences… pic.twitter.com/xS9ByzmJOB Permalink 6:09 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/2985525/88078?stw=2 Permalink 1:36 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 12- If you have to “defend” your relationship with the Saudis… https://twitter.com/RTGBusiness/status/1059369028123275264 Permalink 1:00 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@iosif_lazaridis Max entropy prediction is no prediction. https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/414759-nate-silver-says-dems-could-retake-house-or-not-both-extremely Permalink 5:46 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Footnotes: 1) An interesting point: you can also use the maximum entropy approach to get the same result as my election paper/problem with Klueless Nate. 2) The interesting part of the ArXiv paper isn’t elections, but binary martingales. This can be applied to other processes. pic.twitter.com/4pRDSrtLCV Permalink 3:48 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@serb_superb Gems like this from @nntaleb are part of the reason I’m on twitter. Peterson would need 15 minutes of a podcast to convey the same information. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009740238053412864 Permalink 3:38 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5- FOR THE RECORD I am not translating @DineshDSouza’s point that it was 50-50: I ALSO understood ~50-50 DIRECTLY from Silver’s “extremely” in the linked “The Hill”. Gabish? Permalink 3:15 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4- Things are actually worse: that @NateSilver538 doesn’t get that if BOTH X & Non-X are “extremely possible = Probability converging to 50-50 is EXACTLY my problem w/his misunderstanding of probability in forecasting, & point of my paper. Gabish? https://twitter.com/coachglove/status/1059217783886503937 Permalink 3:04 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb When someone says are event and its opposite are extremely possible I infer either 1) 50/50 or 2) the predictor is shamelessly hedging, in other words, BS. Permalink 2:18 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb (cont) which explain why @DineshDSouza is right: you don’t change a forecast from 80% to 50% under uncertainty. Second time klueless Nate Silver makes a mistake. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/CD5FEhVMVf”> pic.twitter.com/CD5FEhVMVf Permalink 1:56 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Nate Silver just proved a second election in a row he doesn’t know “how math works”. (cont) https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059149034693316608 Permalink 1:53 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@kalltvatten Reading “skin in the game” by @nntaleb and this section is just hilarious because I went on a date with a IYI (intellectual yet idiot) who did INDEED have The black swan on his shelf pic.twitter.com/X6OnloHSky Permalink 4:58 AM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tZqDIBJxdH Permalink 11:12 AM – 3 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Typo, 1940-2018 Permalink 11:07 AM – 3 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Most robust definition of the fraudster/charlatan: Someone who 1) claims to be what he’s not, or 2) misrepresents what he can deliver. @davidboxenhorn Permalink 12:04 AM – 3 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Economists’ only empirically verified expertise is selling themselves to the (paying) public as “experts”. https://twitter.com/VidStimac/status/1058415675457392640 Permalink 11:02 PM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Socialism, def: a political system where decisions are made by people with advanced degrees in social “science”. Permalink 10:00 PM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb They used a very incompetent translator. https://twitter.com/ksamofaen/status/1058457578978586627 Permalink 3:08 PM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Nicolas Ghosn, MP, 1940-1988 (my uncle, mother’s brother) pic.twitter.com/MHN0R9Cpp4 Permalink 10:45 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 11- Elon Musk, finally. https://twitter.com/AmbuyaJohn/status/1058413418665967617 Permalink 10:42 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A society is as advanced as its treatment of its weak, its handicapped and incapacitated. Permalink 10:13 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The Monsanto shill Keith Kloor @keithkloor was also part of the smear campaign by Monsanto against yours truly. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1058343215886004225 Permalink 6:28 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@joshua_landis “Throughout Yemen’s three-and-a-half-year civil war, the Emiratis have been as brutal and reckless as the Saudis….” – by @DefPriorities & Richard Sokolsky https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/10/30/other-murderous-gulf-pub-77606?utm_source=carnegieshare Permalink 6:07 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid An excellent description of our PLOS ONE paper ( https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889 ) finding that the most accurate ML method was less accurate than the least accurate statistical one. @teatchthemachine https://twitter.com/TeachTheMachine/status/1057333666202832896 Permalink 12:45 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@HinduLiberty Indians got diabetes in 20th century because they * stopped eating lots of ghee * stopped using healthy oils like coconut * stopped fasting on sacred days like ekadashi * started eating lots of sugary stuff * started using unhealthy oils https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1058006677847506945?s=19 Permalink 5:02 PM – 1 Nov 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Here’s @EverydayRD threatening @CrossFit gyms for telling clients not to drink soda. Same dietitian Coke & the Kellen Company pay to defend soda. Kellen does Coke & Pepsi propaganda (the CCC) & promotes laws that would make CrossFit’s affiliates illegal (CREP). More coming … https://twitter.com/EverydayRD/status/1057970570946523136 Permalink 6:24 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb You are not what you eat; you are what what you eat eats. 1st order vegetarians — cows, Californians, history majors 2nd order vegetarians — eat only 1st order vegetarians: (some) Semitic religions (w/only gras fed chicken), lions … Nonvegetarians: eat porc, crustaceous … Permalink 6:16 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb How about letting people research your life in dusty archives… Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Cutting an olive tree in the Ancient World was punishable bu death. https://twitter.com/bbassem7/status/1057772976353947649 Permalink 4:34 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb And PR efforts are thwarted… You can’t buy a politician for 14k no more. @Jaffer22915438 https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1057656897489252353?s=21 Permalink 5:38 PM – 31 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The @black_swan_man sent Halloween masks to a collection of people (includes a bust of Seneca sitting in a museum) pic.twitter.com/9z4x2h4Swn Permalink 11:11 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Life imitates art. @nntaleb @BloombergTV https://twitter.com/ErikSchatzker/status/1057668193953767425 Permalink 9:23 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@ErikSchatzker I’m trying to make sense of this http://blackswanman.com . Especially the appearance I make on p. 19. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Wv1be50pmU”> pic.twitter.com/Wv1be50pmU Permalink 6:54 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@nntaleb You can RETROSPECTIVELY measure the *real-IQ* of a blabbering intellectual from his/her historical grap of: – Bitcoin – Tesla – Trump – GMOs etc. Permalink 4:58 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 9- Saudi Arabia boycotted by high profile athletes. https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1057585661920862210 Permalink 4:15 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@zerohedge Taleb: Those Idiots Who Emphatically Told Me “He Will Last 3 Months At Best” https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-30/taleb-those-idiots-who-emphatically-told-me-he-will-last-3-months-best Permalink 1:25 PM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The intellectshual world is populated by a collection of people who are much better at explaining than understanding. Permalink 6:05 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb If you want to lecktshur, do not act as if you are giving a lecktshur. Those slick, glib, and smooth are charlatans, or, worse, TED speakers. You are not an actor. As Seneca wrote, philosophers shd not act like mountebanks, *perform* on the stage. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52 https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1055648535876722688 Permalink 4:39 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An illustration of how little journalists & “intellectuals” understand the world: their predictions of events related to Trump’s presidency. How many people I didn’t know were idiots have emphatically told me “he will last 3 months at best”… https://twitter.com/Fuctupmind/status/1056971162566250496 Permalink 3:41 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@ektrit Another reminder that being “christian” in Greece and East Europe means “NOT muslim”, nothing to do with Christ’s resurrection and Theosis. It is negative identity coming from the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire. https://twitter.com/ekathimerini/status/1057216561931534336 Permalink 3:26 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb They had recently requested asylum in the US. (Sorry to cite the NYT) https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/29/nyregion/sisters-dead-river-saudi-arabia.html Permalink 6:18 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb You cannot make this up. Two dissident sisters who fled Saudi Barbaria are found dead in … NY. And the Saudi Consulate is now involved in … helping. https://twitter.com/KSAconsulateNY/status/1056737353522397184 Permalink 6:10 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Since Semitic Philology is open today, where is the connection between KNOSSOS and KNS? Were the Minoan place-names Semitic? Permalink 2:06 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@catoletters MSNBC and Daily Beast feature UAE lobbyist David Rothkopf with no disclosure: a scandalous media-wide practice https://interc.pt/2q6OS7U by @ggreenwald Permalink 12:35 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 8- Indeed the train has left the (first) station. https://twitter.com/fritzsternjr/status/1056956961902784513 Permalink 11:43 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@XFaure Poke @nntaleb . Seems like people are rediscovering antifragility | When one New Zealand school tossed its playground rules and let students risk injury, the results were surprising http://nationalpost.com/wcm/d33f1216-bc3b-40e6-abc5-f278792a3717 via @nationalpost Permalink 8:00 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Haven’t tried to solve this, but can’t resist posting it. pic.twitter.com/XJsC8zs0UM Permalink 7:15 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 7- Booing in sports… A trend is forming. https://twitter.com/aldertrack/status/1056908115369697286 Permalink 7:14 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Explained in #Antifragile why top-down “globalization” a la Krugman increases risks. Monstrously increases risks. Ricardian comparative advantage blows up under model error. Economists know practically nothing about risk. pic.twitter.com/pqBlSOIimS Permalink 6:10 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An explanation of the mistake (confusing a synagogue for a church): in Medieval Arabic, it’s the same word; synagogue is masculine, Kniss; church is feminine Knissa. Same root as Knesseth (Israeli parliament), KNS=to gather. https://twitter.com/milenarodban/status/1056711569495728135 Permalink 5:22 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @bloomberg pic.twitter.com/FPS9Km7Th5 Permalink 4:46 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Read stuff in translation, but it’s more honest to work w/bilingual versions: Montaigne is now even translated from Medieval to Modern French (which was a no-no in my childhood). The more organic the language, the more it changes. Arabic & Syriac are same across millennia. Permalink 3:11 PM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Never take cooking advice from a waiter. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/923848138493956096 Permalink 11:48 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Remember that Seneca was a trader. Train for all kind of hits you can take. Above all don’t read sh*t about Seneca by nerd/academics & other nonrisk takers. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1056511292658331648 Permalink 10:29 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A possible solution pic.twitter.com/NOs9XfSJyE Permalink 10:27 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Another amuse-mind for Sunday PM. pic.twitter.com/MJqbrFEBmk Permalink 9:31 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #stoics #Seneca #Halloween pic.twitter.com/UL0SoMqS7q Permalink 4:41 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 6- The trend is your friend. h/t @amrojasmendoza https://twitter.com/ajoykelly/status/1054806048765329408 Permalink 6:20 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@AlanDersh The impulse to seek partisan advantage from a tragedy like the Tree of Life shooting seems as irresistible as it is irresponsible. Permalink 5:46 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 5- The trend of negative benefits for doing business with Saudi Barbaria is firming up (i.e. the negative signaling costs of doing business exceed the benefits). https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/187283-181027-macron-merkel-back-europe-coordination-on-arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia Permalink 2:39 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Statins: Benefit overstated – Harm covered up Pesticides: Benefit overstated – Harm covered up Smoking: Harm covered up Grains: Benefits overstated – harm denied Margarine: Benefit overstated – worse than butter Depressants: Benefit overstated – Harm denied What else currently? Permalink 2:31 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb My attempt pic.twitter.com/JTsLJ3URNx Permalink 8:41 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Seemingly these “idiots who think in labels” don’t understand the aphorism, that is, don’t get the difference between *expressing* with the use of labels and *thinking* in labels. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1048072471063220224 Permalink 7:18 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saturday morning math in memory of @CutTheKnotMath (courtesy the Romanian Math Magazine) pic.twitter.com/g3oJNWOd6y Permalink 6:25 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@mintotsai “Soul In The Game” Taleb (@nntaleb) explains how one person like an Elon Musk (@elonmusk) can transform entire industries. pic.twitter.com/C4q6lMAnDn Permalink 6:13 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@peter_sarris The first English translation of the Novels of the Emperor Justinian based on the original Greek – and the first historical and legal commentary in any language – the perfect X Mas present for the discerning Byzantinist… pic.twitter.com/sEBD4NXVd8 Permalink 3:11 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@spyrosmakrid The Five Major Objectives of the M4 Forecasting Conference: New York CIty, December 10 and 11 http://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy For information about the comparisons of ML and Stat forecasting methods for the M3 Competition https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889 for the M4 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018300785 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/I74LnHOOUI”> pic.twitter.com/I74LnHOOUI Permalink 1:16 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 4- https://twitter.com/occuworld/status/1055944966357299200?s=21 Permalink 3:13 PM – 26 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/Z70czTb8Lj Permalink 6:33 AM – 26 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 3- A possible trend https://twitter.com/decmanagement/status/1055704125613240321 Permalink 4:31 AM – 26 Oct 2018

@davidboxenhorn One small step towards @nntaleb’s recommendations. It should be a lifetime ban, but it’s progress http://time.com/4652703/president-trump-lobbying-ban Permalink 11:18 PM – 25 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 2- Already started: a witch hunt of those doing business with Saudi Barbaria. https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1055582317685760001 Permalink 4:55 PM – 25 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ergodicity, again. Skin in the Game explain why dynamic things should NEVER be looked at statically. https://twitter.com/EconTalker/status/1055239759776374784 Permalink 3:16 AM – 25 Oct 2018

@davidboxenhorn Green Tea: good for you Green Tea Capsules: bad for you Scale matters. https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-45971416 Permalink 1:57 AM – 25 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria will be doomed when shunning it becomes a form of virtue signaling. Permalink 4:03 PM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Introducing REWRI instructors to squid ink! Looking for the reactions… pic.twitter.com/RMLj9p84O3 Permalink 3:46 PM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Pol Principles under complexity The project is growing pic.twitter.com/t5iWwz4jlV Permalink 1:43 PM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Will be doing a lecktshur by Skype. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1055122682956656640 Permalink 11:11 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb made an important technical point: the Italians even stole the word for wine from the Phoenicians! Permalink 9:06 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@trishankkarthik The technical definition of fat tails, guys pic.twitter.com/xvNIR5MlUS Permalink 8:28 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Gabrial Mathy you are a fraud. Knightian risks are dealt with via metaprobability. I AM FED UP WITH ECONOMISTS MAKING FALSE CLAIMS ABOUT MY WORK. pic.twitter.com/KUkRjOwNKE Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Yuuuuuuuuuge punishment. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1055077847390437376 Permalink 5:51 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@ngriffin360 Life is.. #longgamma #antifragile @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/rhErBRtxQ3 Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ya LebTwitter Shu bit7ébbo nsammé l lgha taba3na? @oldlevantine @Extrachelle @HsenAndil @PZalloua @961Aleh @lebaneselingui1 @BLebnene @turlevnon Permalink 6:50 PM – 22 Oct 2018

The Black Swan Report

Keeping Tabs on Nassim Taleb and the Highly Improbable.

Tag Archives: Nate Silver

Saudi Arabia, IQ, U.S. Academia, David Graeber, TRUE WEALTH, Harari, Nate Silver,@BallouxFrancois, #RWRI 14 | Twitter

Evolutionary Biologists, Ayn Rand, Dawkins, Quilettebeciles, Nate Silver, Mosquitos, Bolton, Pinker, Nudgeboy, Pencilwits, Brasil | Twitter

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Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war | Isaac Faber

Saudi Barbaria, Saudi Regime, Milan, Nate Silver | Twitter