Thursday, August 19, 2010
by Jacob Goldstein
Here’s the latest Planet Money Deep Read — o…
NASSIM TALEB: The governments have transformed private debt into public debt. Now, that’s not something very commendable, because your grandchildren — and I know you have grandchildren — your grandchildren and their children will bear the price. This is immoral.
Filed in Audio, Books, Contributors, John, Video
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Also tagged bell curve, dave lull, fat tails, inflation 'tax', Nouriel Roubini, Paul Solman, PBS, private liabilities to public debt, recession, Video
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Click arrow to listen Christopher Lydon / Nassim Taleb telephone interview. Link to source and synopsis. 3. On bailouts: My analogy is to the gambler who is now gambling with the trust fund of his unborn great-great-granchildren… Prudence should be the first thing on the agenda of governments, not speculation. Stimulus packages are speculation… [...]
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
I was a trader for 21 years, and anyone taking markets seriously needs to consider the following… You remember the day when Kervial was liquidated? The SocGen rogue trader… ‘the hero’ in France. They sold $50 billion dollars worth of stock. How much did capitalization drop world-wide, based on that? Markets went down 12 percent! With a $50 billion order, you drop markets by 12%. We lost 7, 8 Trillion. A huge amount. So it tells you, don’t pay attention to stock markets. They’re driven by the marginal buyer. It means nothing. Short term markets mean nothing.
Filed in Contributors, Investing, John, Video
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Also tagged Anil Gaba, bernanke, cash for clunkers, converting private debt to public debt, debt to equity, deleveraging, Geithner, Kervial, Nouriel Roubini, rewarding failure, short term markets mean nothing, Summers, the risk is still there, Volcker Rule, who got us here
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When it comes to economic life, we have evidence that a cab driver knows as much as a political scientist-anyone in Washington- in what’s going to happen tomorrow.
People tend to fit their beliefs to the profession, rather than fit their professions to their beliefs…
…when people’s income depends on certain set of beliefs, they will endorse these sets of beliefs, just for the sake of maintaining their lifestyle.
HatTip to Dave Lull Nassim Taleb Interview – The Brian Lehrer Show 052110 WNYC-Nassim Nicholas Taleb, former hedge fund advisor, professor, and author of the best-selling book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House Trade Paperbacks; 2 edition, 2010), continues his exploration of randomness and the unpredictability of markets with the new edition [...]