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Cowen, Thaler, Deadlift, SaudiBarbaria, “think tanks”, Salafism | Twitter

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@nntaleb 3825 years later, economists haven’t yet figured out what Babylonians did: debt has systemic effects (hence on others), self-harm doesn’t.https://twitter.com/tylercowen/status/826613009132969984   Permalink 3:14 PM – 2 Feb 2017

@jnyangena Something @nntaleb has been saying for years nowhttps://twitter.com/BrentBeshore/status/827237359074684928   Permalink 1:17 PM – 2 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Do IYI economists & social “scientists” realize they will soon be cut from taxpayer money? The pseudo-research $$ scam is bound to end. Permalink 9:59 AM – 2 Feb 2017

@nntaleb New York Museum of Mathematics, @MoMath1 Matthew Richey pic.twitter.com/rC0hWazww1 Permalink 4:15 PM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Outside your shit papers, in the real world, risk-takers work with thresholds to simplify life. @R_Thaler @JamesMarsh79 Permalink 9:53 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Rodrik, like cheap Starbucks, engages in cheap virtue signaling, at the expense of sophistry. Bullshit is free. @CliffordAsness @rodrikdani Permalink 6:20 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We’ve know Syria news were fake almost from the beginning. Why did it take that long? Herding/lack of courage by journos fearful to deviate.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/826582270777683968   Permalink 5:00 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Last time I set foot in Starbucks they were selling something called “ethical water”; with millennials falling for that scam. Permalink 2:29 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nothing wrong in the classics in the elevation of your status. But you need to take risks for that, signal courage. @PrometheusAM Permalink 2:18 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Great Ed Thorpe’s memoir. @JamesMarsh79 alerted me that smokevendor @R_Thaler finds Kelly/Thorpe criterion a mistakehttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/foreword-to-ed-thorps-memoirs-a-man-for-all-markets-6beba78cd2b#.eo4b8yt9s   Permalink 2:17 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 4) “Bullshit vending” was present in the classics, as more politely “Smoke vending” “Vendere fumum” Compiled in Erasmus (Adagia, I, 3, 41 ) Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Blaming Starbucks for fake virtue signaling, hypocrisy, exploitation of the immigration ban, @kaveh_h I boycott Starbucks since GMO darkact Permalink 1:58 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) I am procrastinating w/ *Skin in the Game* as I can’t find *virtue signaling* in classics (#Lindy),nothing beyond hypocrisy. Is it new? Permalink 1:56 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@illacertus Just uploaded my animation of The Bed of Procrustes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) – https://youtu.be/lRN_KT17mNo   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2z9AyjC8MJ”>  pic.twitter.com/2z9AyjC8MJ Permalink 10:35 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Results are lift specific. Deadlift 5max rep dropped from weaknening of wrist. Rest between unchanged (squat) and slighly down (press). Thx!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825684555407511552   Permalink 9:26 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Voila @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/GQbASsQwII Permalink 4:51 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb It takes courage to stand up to Saudi Arabia, none to virtue signal here. There is no virtue without risktaking & sacrifice #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/826386249992830978   Permalink 3:41 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I boycott SaudiBarbaria. They should. @MrSeras @AlexJacksonKerr @Konstant_V Permalink 3:19 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling here and there! Pseudo left here, extreme right there. https://twitter.com/konstant_v/status/826251002592559109   Permalink 3:06 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@GreenRupertRead https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/29/barcelona-residents-protest-high-rents-fuelled-by-tourism?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other   – An encouraging development!: Barcelona marches against the harmfulness of tourism on the city. @g_kallis Pse RT Permalink 2:27 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The IYI pseudo-left is disgusting.https://twitter.com/rupasubramanya/status/823410948589416448   Permalink 1:11 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We Christians have been made uncomfortable & not at home in the Levant; we feel at home with Western values & want to keep it as such. Permalink 11:15 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Abdulla I came here running away from intolerant Salafis like you & separation of ch & state. No chasing me here.https://twitter.com/saloul/status/826143889161613312   Permalink 11:06 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3/People are not getting that it is under Obama that minorities fleeing Sunni persecution were not allowed !!! pic.twitter.com/pLcAooTXly Permalink 11:03 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Here is the answer to Mr Greene @bgreene: don’t use your “scientific” status to give policy advice about risk. pic.twitter.com/B0Cp7HfTCk Permalink 8:07 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Can someone answer the fellow abt comparing random variables? Thanks.https://twitter.com/bgreene/status/826080516256436224   Permalink 7:23 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Greene is CLUELESS abt risk/probblty.”Odds” are NOT past frequencies for fat tailed distributions ! Only thintailedhttps://twitter.com/bgreene/status/826066350619652098   Permalink 6:20 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A better link for the paper: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/elections.pdf   Permalink 4:53 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Finally, first draft of my paper on how to forecast an election: forecast includes more volatility than success pr.https://www.dropbox.com/s/wfhm4q3w3k964y2/elections1.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 4:31 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No, retweets. I unfollowed those who retweeted this. @shootersix Permalink 3:42 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Alas, statistics w/o reasoning. P(hit by bus) < 10^-20 probability of quadrupling. Not terror. #FooledByRandomness !https://twitter.com/KimKardashian/status/825580660337283073   Permalink 3:39 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) Reasoning: if a Moroccan terrorist (hence Muslim) killed Muslim people in #QuebecCity, very high probability the victims are Shiites. Permalink 2:20 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb For Baal’s sake, note that I am against the ban for Iran, Iraq & Yemen, but REQUIRING restrictions for Salafis .Kapish? @mtsw @rodrikdani Permalink 10:35 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And Salafism isn’t quite promoting the tolerant “diversity” that Mr Rodrik is looking for… @rodrikdani Permalink 10:30 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Had @rodrikdani made an effort to get the point instead of bullshitting: American value is not accepting assymmetric *intolerant* religion. Permalink 10:28 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rodrik, hope you understand that you are some BS-writing hack living on American charity. Not quite the American dream. @rodrikdani Permalink 9:32 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Asymmetric separation between church and state is leading to Halal public shools in France. @schmittpaula @zak_pullen Permalink 9:22 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A friend you lose was never a friend. @TheDefenderA Permalink 9:02 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@BBassem7 Christianity is under attack by ISIS & AlQaeda in the Middle East. This is no secret. This is a video of what ISIS did to churches in N Iraq pic.twitter.com/MpQshEct25 Permalink 9:01 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@schmittpaula @nntaleb Case in point:Somali taxi drivers in Minneapolis airport refusing to pick up passengers w alcohol, sending them to back of the line Permalink 8:36 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb For those still confused about Salafi Islam & the Popper-Godel principle, let me again invoke the minority rule.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.iyxs6hpdm   Permalink 8:24 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I came as refugee from the Lebanese war, embraced American values,& vowed to defend them. I refuse immigrants who don’t embrace our values. Permalink 8:02 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Shiites are also victims. In Saudi Arabia they are treated worse than dhimmis. Permalink 7:23 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) Iran is the only Islamic country that is truly robust in its tolerance towards Christians and Jews. Permalink 7:21 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Those railing abt temp ban are silent abt dhimmification & extermination by Sunnis Salafis in Near & Middle-East.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/825721153142521858   Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@GreenRupertRead St Thomas Aquinas – ‘It is better that a blind horse is slow’. #PrecautionaryPrinciple pic.twitter.com/0K1Wz882VE Permalink 6:54 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Back to New York after ~4 weeks weightlifting hiatus, to let the body heal from injuries. What will happen to the maximum press/deadlift? Permalink 4:38 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proper legal mechanism is to de-label Salafism as religion, treat it like a political party (say Nazis) then ban!https://medium.com/@nntaleb/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e#.8olh056n6   Permalink 12:43 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Bingo! It is fallacious to treat Salafis as religion or race, but as a violent viciously intolerant political party.https://twitter.com/kringelikrok/status/825600544559362048   Permalink 11:25 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Just as “political science” doesn’t have any science, “think tanks” are for people who don’t and can’t think. Permalink 3:21 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Salafism is CRIMINAL @singhponline @Medium Permalink 2:13 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A potent border test for Salafis: crack a joke and check their sense of humor. Salafis & literalists can’t get humor.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825430237643149315   Permalink 1:05 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We should ban indiv. Salafascists from entering U.S., not countries, not Yemenis & Shiite Iranians. (Popper-Godel)https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.moo05xksc   Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No-nonsense Book on Fat Tails with @DrCirillo, looking increasingly like Dynamic Hedging in style. pic.twitter.com/SZFzKNiP8C Permalink 11:13 AM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Probability du Jour: Why correlation always finite and bounded in (-1, 1), when covariances are undefined. (final) pic.twitter.com/fgj3itJzEB Permalink 11:16 PM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb While Trump’s”enemies take him literally not seriously & friends seriously not literally”, the wise looks at his acts & acts only. No words. Permalink 6:40 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually title is “Extreme Events and How to Live with Them” Permalink 6:26 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They aren’t aware that I will lecture on something related to the Ancient Mediterranean without anyone noticing.https://twitter.com/DarwinLectures/status/824985891840151552   Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Pedagogical slides explaining Fat Tails for my talk in Cambridge questa sera: Why under fat tails single events>sum pic.twitter.com/oXNzOUp9m6 Permalink 3:05 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Cambridge pic.twitter.com/UasiBmiIlK Permalink 11:26 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb From discussion w/ @DrCirillo abt the mystery of why correlation exists but not covariance for very Fat Tailed dist pic.twitter.com/rz6cp0UDUc Permalink 10:45 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The problem with demonizing people instead of criticizing them is that truth eventually comes out in full force & the devil becomes a saint.https://twitter.com/daniellmcadams/status/824769366046732288   Permalink 10:24 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Bravo! There has never been a crowd that creates as much harm thinking they are doing good as pple in US State Dept.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/824655496854564864   Permalink 9:05 AM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb You cannot do statistics without logic. Otherwise you become a data fraud, or, worse, an economist.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/824328271814868992   Permalink 3:07 AM – 26 Jan 2017

P Values, Deadlift, Precautionary Principle, Trump, Virtue, Kapish?

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@nntaleb In high frequ quant finance we use >10^6 data points & nobody knows pvalue. Psychologists trying to get away with 10https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/717366620331618304   Permalink 7:02 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Normal humans can learn from Iraq and Lybia. Journalism became the last refuge for those with brain defects.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/717880860066856960   Permalink 6:56 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My Skin in the Game WIPhttps://twitter.com/evonomicsmag/status/717556674559668224   Permalink 4:03 AM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Por primera vez, texto en español [Bogota]https://twitter.com/luiscano/status/717442396473135104   Permalink 2:54 PM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To paraphrase Yogi Bera, 90% of deadlifting is mental; the other half is physical. Permalink 8:13 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Meanwhile a 80% power for a test and 5% p-value aren’t science.Pick a large n & fughedaoudit http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf  pic.twitter.com/SUMZ6zCBeA Permalink 8:01 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Instead of risking Max deadlift, easier to figure it out from max{lbs: 3 reps <=failure}. @Pete_Spence @georgepearkes Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb in lbs of course. Permalink 6:32 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What is the max deadlift for a noncompetitive flaneur like me (adj. by age group) that would be considered decent? Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@esalazar_y There are only two people missing #Seneca and #FatTony @nntalebpic.twitter.com/aojYNa4QNk Permalink 6:37 PM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle Simplified: Started rewriting @yaneerbaryam @normonics @RupertReadpic.twitter.com/i12VkJn8WC Permalink 11:40 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@kupiako @nntaleb @DontFadeeMeBro And his father died in 1999 Permalink 7:28 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Main diff betw. Trump and Fat Tony: 1) His FatToniness doesn’t like publicity, 2) Fat Tony wouldn’t marry a model.https://twitter.com/UncleDario1/status/716995760181616641   Permalink 7:30 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Also Trump had 4 siblings. @DontFadeeMeBro Permalink 7:26 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I only trust people who don’t care about their reputation. Virtue ethics is about acts of virtue even if they come with negative reward. Permalink 7:25 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That is a myth about Trump’s inheritance. Work the numbers of cohort of others who have inherited.https://twitter.com/gweirydd/status/716993004096077824   Permalink 7:20 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal: Rediscovers scaling laws, how fragility increases with size.pic.twitter.com/55uXlT5XwD Permalink 7:15 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 305): Politicians sh**t scared of the press.pic.twitter.com/ZwM5grWlsV Permalink 7:11 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (pp. 282-283): How consultants & executives don’t hold a candle to someone w/ #SITGpic.twitter.com/24nofJ5AcN Permalink 7:08 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “To me, committees are what insecure people create in order to put off making hard decisions.” Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 281) Permalink 7:05 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My hobby is busting bullshitters @iandavidmorris, a la Feynman: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”https://twitter.com/Priapus_D/status/716972631925387264   Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The fellow did not break the truth: comments in prnthss which is NOT standard but NOT unethical. Kapish? @semperfidem2004 @iandavidmorris Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In real science it is not about whether the scientist has the right standards; it is about his THEORY. Kapish? @homophonous @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:19 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) which is why Lux.’s theory is a valid hunch; disproofs are unrigorous w/absence of evidence fallacies. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:08 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1/Every Arabic speaker who had to memorize poetry knows that pre-Islamic vocabulary is v. different from Q. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:05 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@republicofmath MT @MathFour Engineers think equations approx reality. Physicists think reality approx equations. Mathematicians know equations are reality Permalink 11:31 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) So in spite of his solecism I find him closer to the SUBSTANCE of the subject matter than your elaborate nitpicking @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:40 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) As I said he knew enough Syriac to have detected the problem and confused Payne Smith for his daughter’s translation. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:38 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb His “sparkle” is in Payne. Check again. Attacking someone’s thesis on his etiquette is failing us: we care about the truth @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally, in my world (science, search for truth), scholarship is about SUBSTANCE, not trifles. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:16 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What makes me doubt your scholarship is that the fact that you did not check if the language was from Payne, not his own. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:15 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You are conflating breach of ethics & breach of the etiquette of a research milieu. By nitpicking, you reinforced his thesis.@iandavidmorris Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 If it weren’t for Obama, Shillary Clinton wd have transformed Damascus into an AlQaeda or ISIS Base. Keep her on the lecture circuit. Permalink 9:33 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to keep Shillary out of the White House. Whatever it takes, even if it means having a robot as president.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/716644245977899008   Permalink 9:24 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary: Anything that has an infinite (or “long”) shelf life (i.e. “sustainable”) falls under Precautionary Pple.pic.twitter.com/55pwCgaJM0 Permalink 6:55 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I think I got the p-hacking distribution & given no outcry by psych trolls it isn’t a “rediscovery”. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @learnfromerror Permalink 3:13 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody can explain why the neocons are buying that Saudi Barbaria is helping Syria to become democratic. Is neocon a result of brain damage? Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If all progress is innovation, all innovation is not progress. As a matter of fact, 99.9% of innovations fail. @sarah_cone @uistbhoy88 Permalink 9:39 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that hotshot architects try to impress other architects and we are left paying the price. #noskininthegame Permalink 7:52 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Rainy Saturday: density of the preimage of the power of test. Concavity of measure, mean is lower than orig powerpic.twitter.com/mKd3T2CyNR Permalink 7:49 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sadly, when a gentle, low-testosterone looking person promotes peace, he is much less convincing than a warrior-looking bully. Permalink 6:45 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that, unlike with fashion, music or cinema, fads leave a permanent scar. Permalink 4:59 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This summer I want to learn a new language. Which sequence is preferable? (Urdu as proxy for Hindi for script). Permalink 2:49 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Metadistribution: The dist of the pre-image of a power of a test. In other words, Power is as BS as P-Value.pic.twitter.com/xAGvyuqmjk Permalink 1:08 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms You know you’re a sectarian fraud when you say Assad must go for humanitarian reasons while cheering the Saudi-led carpet-bombing in Yemen. Permalink 2:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-value is a stochastic measure. Stochastic measures are not measures. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @dsquareddigest Permalink 11:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fixed! @SandrewFinancepic.twitter.com/fWj8wc5z5F Permalink 11:01 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Connecting the Precautionary PPle to Peters and Gell-Mann(2015); something MISSED by the idiots in decision theory.pic.twitter.com/sOplMWr1we Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are reframing the MINI CERTIFICATE IN RISK TAKING as risk management is back office, risk taking is front office. http://realworldrisk.com/inaugural_program_comments   Permalink 8:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@garyruskin Then: #Monsanto hid the truth about PCBs http://bit.ly/1C6Gupx  . Now: Monsanto says “Roundup Is Not A Carcinogen” http://wbur.fm/1MZz35R   Permalink 6:12 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of philosophical approach to the inverse problem (in Silent Risk).pic.twitter.com/Sw3BQt1kvW Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The precautionary principle papers: No, there is no *scientific* evidence “GMO” are safe http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  pic.twitter.com/d08P8gYtLr Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Apr 2016