Comments for The Black Swan Report

Comment on I’m On Hiatus by Keith Beacham

Keith Beacham — Tue, 14 May 2013 23:35:54 +0000

Thanks. Get back when you can.

Comment on Daniel Kahneman – A Bat and a Ball Cost $1.10 by Murray

Murray — Fri, 10 May 2013 06:22:13 +0000

This is just to help convince some of those who seemed to think that there was something wrong with the question or answer. (Especially Wally Hammer)

I’m going to start from the other direction to previous explanations, and show through working through the possibilities that the answer is that the ball can only cost 5c.

We are told that the bat costs $1.00 more than that ball. I’m going to start purely with that stipulation and see what the consequences are. So let’s consider potential prices of the ball ($ball) and what that would mean for the price of the bat ($bat) and the total cost ($Total).

$Ball + $Bat($1more) = $Total
0c $1.00 = $1.00
1c $1.01 = $1.02
2c $1.02 = $1.04
3c $1.03 = $1.06
4c $1.04 = $1.08
5c $1.05 = $1.10
6c $1.06 = $1.12
7c $1.07 = $1.14
8c $1.08 = $1.16
9c $1.09 = $1.18
10c $1.10 = $1.20

From the above, “10c” is clearly the wrong answer. It makes the total cost $1.20, not $1.10. Indeed, any cost higher than 5c for the ball must be wrong, as the total cost will be more than $1.10. Ball prices less than 5c mean that the total is less than $1.10.

A price of 5c for the ball and $1.05 is the only scenario in which the bat costs exactly $1 more than the ball, and the total is $1.10.

Comment on I’m On Hiatus by John

John — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 18:16:23 +0000

Thank You!

Comment on I’m On Hiatus by Igor Bukanov

Igor Bukanov — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 16:38:14 +0000

Thanks for all your efforts! You track record of tracking NNT was perfect!

Comment on Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment. by Martin Eden

Martin Eden — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 23:14:47 +0000

Greetings:

The egg is fragile to a drop of 2 feet.
The chicken is resilient to a drop of 8 feet. Is the hawk antifragile to a release at a thousand feet from which it can enjoy a free ride to a longer view? Or engage the option of gliding down to settle in a tree refreshed? I am not quite satisfied with this metaphor as is obvious from its lack of cogency, but helps me to explore the notion…

Be well, and thank you for Antifragile, I am very much alive reading it.

Martin Eden, Arlee, Montana

Comment on More Skin in the Game in 2013 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Project Syndicate by Ryan Murphy

Ryan Murphy — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 23:40:04 +0000

Nader’s proposal sounds unconstitutional and contrary to common law on several grounds.

Comment on How To Build An Antifragile Career | Fast Company by Cyril Morong

Cyril Morong — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 18:38:12 +0000

It looks like there already is a National Entrepreneur Day. Go to

http://www.entrepreneursday.org/#

Comment on Epiphanies from Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Foreign Policy by Sam Johns

Sam Johns — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 19:45:24 +0000

When brassy things go pear-shaped, all of the more important things remain copacetic.

Comment on OVERTREATMENT as short volatility… by John

John — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 06:41:34 +0000

Apparently, no opinion.

Comment on Nassim Taleb on the Benefits of Uncertainty – Fool.com by Trevor

Trevor — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 18:49:06 +0000

Somewhere Keynes is smiling down upon us, as his idea was to have negative real interest rates of capital, which he coined with the term “the euthanasia of the rentier”, or Financial Repression, as we know it today. Good luck to NNT and the rest of us who would like 95% of our capital preserved against the ravages of inflation for the next 20 years, without taking some form of market risk.