Tuesday, December 27, 2011
In the end I added this to the ‘haters’ category. Especially after I read this post. He seems to be writing anonymously. Anyone know who it is? According to philosopher Taleb we can have heuristics, but not optimization. Optimization leads to airport delays. It also leads to cheaper tickets and in this exciting two part [...]
I’m in receipt today of a collection of emails from Janet Tavakoli. You may recall some controversy around figures NNT was quoted to have said in a GQ article. I believe I’ve posted about this elsewhere on the blog. It’s from 2009. As you know, I have no relationship with Nassim Taleb, I’m simply collecting, [...]
At this point I think it would be helpful to illuminate what I’ve been doing both in reaction to the economic data and to be proactive to what I think is still to come. As you may have read already on my Portfolio page, I do employ black swan prote…
I was a trader for 21 years, and anyone taking markets seriously needs to consider the following… You remember the day when Kervial was liquidated? The SocGen rogue trader… ‘the hero’ in France. They sold $50 billion dollars worth of stock. How much did capitalization drop world-wide, based on that? Markets went down 12 percent! With a $50 billion order, you drop markets by 12%. We lost 7, 8 Trillion. A huge amount. So it tells you, don’t pay attention to stock markets. They’re driven by the marginal buyer. It means nothing. Short term markets mean nothing.
Also filed in Contributors, John, Video
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Tagged Anil Gaba, bernanke, cash for clunkers, converting private debt to public debt, debt to equity, deleveraging, Geithner, Kervial, nassim taleb, Nouriel Roubini, rewarding failure, short term markets mean nothing, Summers, the risk is still there, Volcker Rule, who got us here
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HatTip to Dave Lull Nassim Taleb Interview – The Brian Lehrer Show 052110 WNYC-Nassim Nicholas Taleb, former hedge fund advisor, professor, and author of the best-selling book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House Trade Paperbacks; 2 edition, 2010), continues his exploration of randomness and the unpredictability of markets with the new edition [...]
HatTip to EG! NNT was also on CNBC yesterday. The interviewers get in the way somewhat but it’s worth watching.
Also filed in John, Video
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Tagged agricultural land, bernanke, collection of metals, contage, David Cameron, debt, dollar, euro, failed option, flash crash, fraudsters, Geithner, hard assets, hyperinflation, long term interest rates, moral hazard, nassim taleb, negative advice, robustness, Summers, treasury bonds, Universa
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Shared by JohnH
Anybody read The Big Short? Would love to understand the details of making the kind of trades NNT talks about. I wish someone would write a ‘How To’ with specifics built around NNT’s Moscow Forum strategy outlined here: http://www.bl…
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Aha! Made it to YouTube.Nassim Taleb (Synopsis): Go no-risk with a small percent and high-risk with the rest. For the speculative component, short the S&P and be long in precious metals; bet on hyperinflation with OTM calls on gold and puts on bonds; short USTs as long as Bernanke and Summers are in office; trade [...]