The Black Swan Report » Feeds http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog Keeping Tabs on Nassim Taleb and the Highly Improbable. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 20:52:53 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Chapter 2 is ready.http://fooledbyrandomness.com/chapter2.pdf(Fat Tony is back) http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/11/chapter-2-is-ready-httpfooledbyrandomness-comchapter2-pdffat-tony-is-back/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/11/chapter-2-is-ready-httpfooledbyrandomness-comchapter2-pdffat-tony-is-back/#comments Tue, 01 Nov 2011 18:23:16 +0000 Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=09d72f8e5199f827fb8791734aca0701 Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall

Chapter 2 is ready.
http://fooledbyrandomness.com/chapter2.pdf
(Fat Tony is back)


http://fooledbyrandomness.com/chapter2.pdf
fooledbyrandomness.com]]> http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/11/chapter-2-is-ready-httpfooledbyrandomness-comchapter2-pdffat-tony-is-back/feed/ 0 If someone is willing to trade positions (professional, social, financial) with… http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/if-someone-is-willing-to-trade-positions-professional-social-financial-with/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/if-someone-is-willing-to-trade-positions-professional-social-financial-with/#comments Mon, 31 Oct 2011 17:46:50 +0000 Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=d66a7bbe97d12cf621d22179af62e9f6 Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall

If someone is willing to trade positions (professional, social, financial) with you, any criticism on his part is mere expression of envy.
(Aphorism 33)]]> http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/if-someone-is-willing-to-trade-positions-professional-social-financial-with/feed/ 0 With few exceptions, we don't ask questions unless we know the anwers. (Aphori… http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/with-few-exceptions-we-dont-ask-questions-unless-we-know-the-anwers-aphori/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/with-few-exceptions-we-dont-ask-questions-unless-we-know-the-anwers-aphori/#comments Sun, 30 Oct 2011 15:55:17 +0000 Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=030a5a7d29a401b37b84aa50b4fab938 Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall

With few exceptions, we don't ask questions unless we know the anwers.
(Aphorism 32)]]> http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/with-few-exceptions-we-dont-ask-questions-unless-we-know-the-anwers-aphori/feed/ 0 Businesses operate on the modus that the best sucker is the satisfied sucker. http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/businesses-operate-on-the-modus-that-the-best-sucker-is-the-satisfied-sucker/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/businesses-operate-on-the-modus-that-the-best-sucker-is-the-satisfied-sucker/#comments Sat, 29 Oct 2011 14:08:41 +0000 Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=19e97932f4d69c2182a776963236b5ea Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall

Businesses operate on the modus that the best sucker is the satisfied sucker.]]> http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/businesses-operate-on-the-modus-that-the-best-sucker-is-the-satisfied-sucker/feed/ 0 Friends, thanks for the previous remarks. Is Chapter 1 clear enough for you ?(n… http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/friends-thanks-for-the-previous-remarks-is-chapter-1-clear-enough-for-you-n/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/friends-thanks-for-the-previous-remarks-is-chapter-1-clear-enough-for-you-n/#comments Thu, 27 Oct 2011 21:33:36 +0000 Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=70f41334e0f1a79aa948efdec49d026f Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall

Friends, thanks for the previous remarks. Is Chapter 1 clear enough for you ?
(not final, of course so this is not about typos, just if the concepts are clear enough to you).

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/chapter1.pdf



http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/chapter1.pdf
www.fooledbyrandomness.com]]> http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/friends-thanks-for-the-previous-remarks-is-chapter-1-clear-enough-for-you-n/feed/ 0 Life's principal skill is in distinguishing between inability and unwillingness… http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/lifes-principal-skill-is-in-distinguishing-between-inability-and-unwillingness/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/lifes-principal-skill-is-in-distinguishing-between-inability-and-unwillingness/#comments Thu, 27 Oct 2011 17:22:24 +0000 Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=29ce06502a11d7764cc49048859ce22d Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall

Life's principal skill is in distinguishing between inability and unwillingness to understand a given message.]]> http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/lifes-principal-skill-is-in-distinguishing-between-inability-and-unwillingness/feed/ 0 Hormesis… Expressed it as a combination of options of different strikes.Where… http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/hormesis-expressed-it-as-a-combination-of-options-of-different-strikes-where/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/hormesis-expressed-it-as-a-combination-of-options-of-different-strikes-where/#comments Thu, 27 Oct 2011 14:10:36 +0000 Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=6f6fdbdd7f83e74ce7b8d2752df7fede Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall

Hormesis... Expressed it as a combination of options of different strikes.
Where K is the strike, K1 I expressed the health function as:

+1 C(K1) - 1.6 C(K2) +.6 C(K3)


Wall Photos]]> http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/hormesis-expressed-it-as-a-combination-of-options-of-different-strikes-where/feed/ 0 I wonder if this chapter is clear to the general public.http://www.fooledbyra… http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/i-wonder-if-this-chapter-is-clear-to-the-general-public-httpwww-fooledbyra/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/i-wonder-if-this-chapter-is-clear-to-the-general-public-httpwww-fooledbyra/#comments Tue, 25 Oct 2011 23:00:13 +0000 Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=ce5132f06a29dea893c5e54633ee9735 Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall

I wonder if this chapter is clear to the general public.

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/options.pdf


http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/options.pdf
www.fooledbyrandomness.com]]> http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/i-wonder-if-this-chapter-is-clear-to-the-general-public-httpwww-fooledbyra/feed/ 0 Friends would love to discuss the following. Hormesis in the lit. seems to lac… http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/friends-would-love-to-discuss-the-following-hormesis-in-the-lit-seems-to-lac/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/friends-would-love-to-discuss-the-following-hormesis-in-the-lit-seems-to-lac/#comments Mon, 24 Oct 2011 22:54:07 +0000 Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=51894fbb9415c8b02910a7311895de7c Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall

Friends would love to discuss the following.
Hormesis in the lit. seems to lack in rigor as a phen (2nd mistake, aside from missing local convexity). It is defined by a compensatory reaction, which conflicts with evolutionary filtering (antibiotic resistance works by destroying the weak faster than the strong). So there are:
1) hormetic antifragility,
2) evolutionary antifragility (often mistaken for hormesis),
3) payoff antifragility (say, financial options).
All three like increase in randomness, but function different ways.]]> http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/friends-would-love-to-discuss-the-following-hormesis-in-the-lit-seems-to-lac/feed/ 0 Many Black Swans Make Metaphor Meaningless: Alice Schroeder – Bloomberg http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/many-black-swans-make-metaphor-meaningless-alice-schroeder-bloomberg/ http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2011/10/many-black-swans-make-metaphor-meaningless-alice-schroeder-bloomberg/#comments Mon, 24 Oct 2011 07:35:34 +0000 (author unknown) http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/?guid=df3587e2779c60b5d75d15ecbb736339 Link To Full Story: www.bloomberg.com

Nassim Taleb believes in probabilities, not predictions, but at times it can be hard to tell the difference. “The real Black Swan event,” he said in June, “is that people are not rioting against the banks in London and New York.”

Taleb saw it coming, and his well-publicized remark may be the only reason Occupy Wall Street hasn’t been labeled a black swan. This once-rare bird, made ubiquitous by Taleb’s best- selling 2007 book of the same title, now appears so often after dramatic events, such as Occupy Wall Street, that sightings of it have become meaningless.

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