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Category Archives: John

What’s Rarer Than Black Swans?

The Summers or Geithner nightmare: James Saft | Reuters

Maybe it is time for an outsider, and Paddypower has duly supplied one, putting iconoclast Nassim Nicholas Taleb as a 1000-1 shot in a field of a dozen potential candidates. Taleb, best known for the concept of the black swan, the big-impact, hard-to-predict outlier, is tough-minded, understands risk and, unlike most of the competition, wants […]

Jim Lewis: Nassim Taleb is wrong about the financial crisis and black swans « InvestmentWatch

This strikes me as another case of ‘Black Swan Coattail Riding’. I can’t recall NNT describing the financial crisis as anything more than a grey swan at best. Can you? Black Swans And Complexity Submitted by Jim Lewis Nassim Taleb is wrong about the financial crisis and black swans. The ongoing financial crisis is not […]

It’s Here! RSA – The Predictability of Unpredictability

The Predictability of Unpredictability 1st Dec 2011; 18:00 Listen to the audio (full recording including audience Q&A) Please right-click link and choose “Save Link As…” to download audio file onto your computer. Download Nassim Taleb’s presentation (pdf) RSA Keynote Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the brilliant and controversial author of The Black Swan, described in the […]

For the nonorganic…

For the nonorganic, noncomplex, say an object on the table, equilibrium happens in a state of inertia. For something organic, equilibrium is synonym to death. [Chapter on Political Volatility] via For the nonorganic,… | Facebook.