Nassim Taleb, author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about antifragility, the concept behind Taleb’s next book, a work in progress. Taleb talks about how we can cope with our ignorance and uncertainty in a complex world. Topics covered include health, finance, political systems, the Fed, your career, Seneca, shame, heroism, and a few more.

“A Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.”

via Taleb on Antifragility | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty.

The Predictability of Unpredictability

1st Dec 2011; 18:00

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RSA Keynote

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the brilliant and controversial author of The Black Swan, described in the Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War 2. He came to wider public attention as one of the few prominent academics to correctly warn of catastrophe in the financial system ahead of the credit crunch.

Despite his skills as economist and aphorist, it is Taleb’s theory of knowledge which has made him required reading in 10 and 11 Downing Street. By emphasising the inherent uncertainty and complexity of reality he argues against top down planning and research arguing instead for small scale experimentation and observation. Cameron Conservatives quote Taleb in making the case against central state control and planning and in favour of localism and testing by doing.

Join renowned academic and author Nassim Nicholas Taleb as he discusses his groundbreaking ideas and their relevance to the current economic crisis, national policy making and other topics with Rohan Silva, senior policy advisor to the Prime Minister.

Chair: Matthew Taylor, chief executive, RSA.

via RSA – The Predictability of Unpredictability.

Click arrow to play audio. Mark Blyth, The Black Swan of Cairo.

Shared by JohnH
HatTip to Dave Lull!

Nassim Taleb in conversation with Wharton professor Richard Herring. Video interview. Audio.

 
Taleb: The events in the Middle East are not black swans. They were predictable to those who know the region well. At most, they were gray swans or perhaps white swans. One of the lessons of "Wild vs. Mild Randomness," my chapter with Benoit Mandelbrot in your book, is what happens before you go into a period of wild randomness. You will find a long quiet period that is punctuated with absolute total turmoil.... In The Black Swan, I discussed Saudi Arabia as a prime case of the calm before the storm and the Great Moderation [the perceived end of economic volatility due to the creation of 20^th century banking laws] in the same breath. I was comparing Italy with Saudi Arabia. Italy is an example of mild randomness in comparison with Saudi Arabia and Syria, which are examples of wild randomness. Italy has had 60 changes in regime in the post-war era, but they are inconsequential.... It is a prime example of noise. It's very Italian and so it's elegant noise, but it's noise nonetheless. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and Syria have had the same regime in place for 40 some years. You may think it is stability, but it's not. Once you remove the lid, the thing explodes.

The same kind of thing happens in finance. Take the portfolio of banks. The environment seemed very placid -- the Great Moderation -- and then the thing explodes.

Names Not Numbers Symposium An annual thought leadership symposium. Multimedia
Fragility, Complexity & Society (mp3) Talk with Q&A
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Former Trader and Author of ‘The Black Swan’
Q&A moderated by Matthew Taylor, RSA

Shared by JohnH Audio from the BBC. Intelligence Symposium in Portmeirion, with Oceanographer Sylvia Earle and painter, poet Frieda Hughes. HatTip to Dave Lull.

It’s much better to mistake a stone for a bear, than a bear for a stone.

(Click arrow to play audio) Nassim Taleb ManagemenTV.mp3

ByThe Economist Newspaper Limited

Economist interviews Nassim Taleb on the subject of his new book, The Bed of Procrustes.

(Click arrow to play audio.) Nassim Taleb Interview

Links to BBC radio interview with NNT. HatTip to Dave Lull.

The intellectual guru Nassim Taleb has published
a collection of philosophical aphorisms.
He explores his favourite theme of the limitations of human knowledge.

(Click arrow to play audio) NNT BBC Radio 12/14/10