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TECHNICAL INCERTO, Dawkins, Haass, Friedman, Zakaria, Alexander Bogomolny, GMOs, Ron Paul, Soccer | Twitter

@financequant “I believe that we should read only those books that wound and stab us. If a book we are reading does not rouse us with a blow to the head, then why read it? A book must be the axe for the frozen sea inside us.”–Franz Kafka Permalink 2:43 PM – 20 Jul 2018

@NebojsaMalic You BOMBED Montenegro in 1999 as commander of NATO, you nitwit. https://twitter.com/GeneralClark/status/1019605472205295616   Permalink 10:43 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This time on ….phenomenology! The cartoonist is good but doesn’t get that weightlifters are NOT thin in the waist. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1020291741994430466   Permalink 6:57 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Since I am typesetting, we have aesthetic questions. Is the format I use for my own books OK? Or fixing the Maestro’s own original fonts? https://www.dropbox.com/s/hslpj8xcqtszmvv/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%202.pdf?dl=0   Please let me know. Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) (Ppple involved: @MarcosCarreira @gcfr20 @mikeandallie @octonion @SvetlanaBogom13 ) My feeling is: we do not need to complete many tutorial appendices since these are standard: pple find them on the web just as they did to solve pblms. (for instance I don’t use one for mine) Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) BOGOMOLNY FRIDAY SYMPOSIUM Alex left us 13 days ago. I have the PDF of the @CutTheKnotMath’s book Probability Riddles; working on completing it posthumously. Need comments on these sections (pics). https://www.dropbox.com/s/wcme0ib93t4bozn/Probability_Riddles.pdf?dl=0   @republicofmath @ProbFact @octonion @erugli ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/S40ItFJMxi”>  pic.twitter.com/S40ItFJMxi Permalink 4:50 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yarmouk is where the Byzantines lost the battle to the Arabs 13C ago. The new Byzantium has some work to do. https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/1020142300180213760   Permalink 8:43 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He came to talk population genetics/probability. I took him to the gym instead and forced him to deadlift. He had never done it before. He is very confused about the visit. https://twitter.com/pzalloua/status/1020068134886232065   Permalink 3:51 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Never ever criticize anyone (say a politician) for doing something that you would be silent about if someone else did it. You would be insulting your audience, insulting truth, insulting the medium you are using, insulting ethics. Permalink 11:38 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved… https://twitter.com/roguishwisdom/status/1020001246248341504   Permalink 11:03 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yes the seeds of skin in the game in 2002: never read anything on doing by nondoers. https://twitter.com/mc_macro/status/1019973430601322498   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So the TECHNICAL INCERTO is online: VOL1- The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails https://www.dropbox.com/s/bq2lhmoo9v686ap/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%201.pdf?dl=0   VOL2- Convexity, Risk, and Fragility (in progress) https://www.dropbox.com/s/hslpj8xcqtszmvv/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%202.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ee2wQ07MVV”>  pic.twitter.com/ee2wQ07MVV Permalink 7:01 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Congrats to @BakhtadzeMamuka for becoming Prime Minister of Georgia, and indeed, let Georgia, the root of Europe and the Mediterranean (i.e. Western Eurasia), become part of modern-day Europe via cultural and economic integration. https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1019916527959707648   Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb My point is: That highly unrigorous science journalist @RichardDawkins can say “Listen I would like to preserve my culture” without insulting other people’s aesthetics. Permalink 5:35 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Note: This is not for my benefit but a public service warning –since I will never set foot there. (Nor was I financially hurt since I was the guest at a business dinner.) Permalink 7:08 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I spent my childhood in the Christian neighborhood in Beirut listening to both the bells (older churches than Dawkins’) and the muezzin in the distance. It taught me that tolerance is when you get that: The Other likes the aesthetics of his rituals as much as you do yours. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1018933359978909696   Permalink 6:54 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Is it against NYC law to refuse to serve tap water? (Some pple have a rule to never drink nonlocal water) Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Nusr-Et in NY. Never ever again. They don’t even serve local tap water. Overrrrrrrrrrpriced. pic.twitter.com/oBCmFEiQbV Permalink 4:21 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@JeanMessiha En Algérie, des femmes bravent l’obscurantisme avec la modernité du bikini ; en France, des femmes bravent la modernité avec l’obscurantisme du burkini… https://observalgerie.com/actualite-algerie/societe/ces-algeriennes-qui-simposent-en-bikini/   Permalink 11:51 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This is hilarious. Every time someone (of the type to live with their mother at age 52) tells me that “Trump is dumb”… https://twitter.com/Viatcheslavsos3/status/1019631566522322944   Permalink 11:39 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@DaxThoughts Nothing makes me (1) feel worse about myself (2) want to learn a ton of information NOW, Than reading @nntaleb’s papers It’s an extremely humbling process. Permalink 4:18 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And they are still not getting why this “evidence” is pseudoscience. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/16/health/psychology-studies-stanford-prison.html   Permalink 4:12 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The thread explains why most of the papers with “empirical evidence” using “correlations” and “p-values” are BS. Actually, in some fields, almost all papers are BS but you need to look deep into the statistics. The p-value hacking paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1019229442609221632   Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2018

@CeddChad Courtesans and Fishcakes opened my eyes to Med culture and how we Northerners are so different. Yours has been the only reference I have ever seen to it. Permalink 11:34 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Journos thrive on wars and tensions (like the press magnate in the Bond movie who fomented wars to sell papers) (Asymmetric payoff: they don’t bear the costs, particularly if harm is in foreign countries) Regular citizens don’t care about geopolitics. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 11:06 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And prosperity is best achieved by preventing bureaucrats from interfering with things they will never understand. Permalink 9:50 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that the job of the government is to deliver Peace and Prosperity. Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@marcus_minus Espèce de charlatan incompétent… je vous invite à lire @nntaleb avant de dire de tels conneries. Et dire que nous avons des cancres comme vs pour parler de transhumanisme, d’OGM et d’investissement d’avenir. #charlatan Permalink 7:00 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Based on the reactions, the definition of a “dictator with divergent values” is someone who does not buy weapons from U.S. based arms manufacturers. Permalink 8:06 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@daniel_bilar Pre-asymptotics & fat tails: Operational & heuristic metrics to compare n-summed independent vars under all distributions w finite first moment by @nntaleb http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   [“how much data one needs to make meaningful statements”, ‘speed’ of the law of large numbers] ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cZ3SroVpec”>  pic.twitter.com/cZ3SroVpec Permalink 5:39 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 This is getting ridiculous. What a day. Share values ? I didn’t see you complaining when he sword danced in #Saudi https://twitter.com/newshour/status/1018990464676970496   Permalink 3:59 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It took 5 volumes to get the main point: “The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty about what one should do about it.” pic.twitter.com/XodgKD7QrV Permalink 1:53 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One is allowed to reveal the low IQ of these pseudo-experts s.a. @RichardHaass, @tomfriedman or @FareedZakaria is because, while clueless abt complex interactions & basic properties, they feel empowered to lecture others on what to do. They shd driving Ubers not more. Permalink 12:01 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Actually excellent partying as preliminary preparation to the theorezing. pic.twitter.com/mdR0oQNFPC Permalink 11:49 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The main problem that plague GMO idiots is that they don’t get that 1) interractions in an environment are not predictable 2) that they NEED to be predicted (no organism is isolated) https://twitter.com/freud_fjell/status/1018919146044747776   Permalink 11:07 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Surprised? https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1018873225206525952   Permalink 10:23 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Promoting the ideas of Jane Jacobs (and her books) on organic urbanism —with Minister @HardeepSPuri in charge of building tens of millions of homes in the next 5 years. pic.twitter.com/gV6YwcvhHs Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb To have a real “deep state” you need the intelligence of a Professor Moriarty or the craftiness of a Colbert. Not a collection of hand-to-mouth bureaucrats. Gabish? Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One lesson from recent militarism: 1- There may exist ~a “deep state”, but it isn’t organized, rather a spontaneous league of useful idiots 2- The most representative is that *low-IQ BS Vendor*, @RichardHaass, so you can see it’s composed of real losers https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1018245342989516805   Permalink 6:16 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Like Saudi Arabia. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1018815528704593920   Permalink 5:00 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends; now the question is whether to use Roman or “Arabic” (Indian) numerals. pic.twitter.com/ncLcWlJYWi Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@Jaffer22915438 One last tweet before I do something more useful. Flashback to when right wingnuts called Reagan a “Useful Idiot” for meeting with Soviet Union…today, Democrats assuming posture: http://articles.latimes.com/1987-12-05/news/mn-6395_1_president-reagan   Permalink 4:19 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Needs to be random. Like IRS audits. https://twitter.com/stianchrister/status/1018585629230170113   Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Make sure your income does not depend on your reputation. 2) Find 4-5 perpetrators and hound them for the rest of their life. Particularly 4 years later when they expect it the least. 3) Let others see what you are doing to the few smearers. Example http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   https://twitter.com/Once_there_was_/status/1018547404931362817   Permalink 12:53 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In the past, the weapons industry would have right wing warmongers shill for them & perpetuate states of bellicosity. They got smarter. They now enlist shills who managed to label themselves on the “left”. Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) And no, @elonmusk/@Tesla are not fully antifragile: they depends on shareholders, which is the reason smear campaigns are active. They are directed at the shareholders. But they can show evidence of smear campaign (there is) using my Tesla/NonTesla test. Permalink 7:55 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The principle in Fooled by Randomness is that we react to 1st order; we are manipulated into seeing events separated from statistical context. For instance: my discipline every time I hear Trump did smthing cruel (e.g. children) to check if NonTrump did same. (Obama did). Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Thread: @ElonMusk, victim of a smear campaign. + @Tesla car catches fire. Nobody reports on >150K yearly nonTesla cars fires? + Musk took public $, not great (returned). How about OTHER companies that got pub. $$? + Musk “is a billionaire”. How abt other billionaires? https://twitter.com/web/status/1018503499091464192   Permalink 7:46 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb cc:@HardeepSPuri https://twitter.com/Jimmy_Rosen/status/1018495695815434241   Permalink 7:15 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 6) Diplomats and politicians with no SITG cause more trouble than they solve with things like Israel/Palestine and Syria. Taleb thinks that people with SITG care more about having good food, drink, and weather at their family parties than geopolitics or grand principles: no SITG Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 1) Recently finished @nntaleb’s Skin in the Game. Like others (@naval) who have had their worldviews shifted by Taleb’s writings on probability, randomness, and society in general, SITG changed how I think about numerous parts of the economy and society. Some takeaways: Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 14 problems coming from the misunderstanding of fat tails by professional statisticians/quants/economists etc. pic.twitter.com/rIFZf89r9i Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One of the last pictures of Maestro, birdwatching (courtesy: his niece). pic.twitter.com/3ym2Jm3QlH Permalink 6:18 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb SUMMARY OF THE BOOK A statistician: Of course we understand fat tails. The author: No you don’t. pic.twitter.com/YqbSvulpfd Permalink 2:42 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INTERDICTS A passage in The Black Swan about how grandmother elephants have authority… A senator is literally an aged person… pic.twitter.com/B7nnQDzK0M Permalink 10:34 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking pple who nitpick aphorisms as if they were literal scientific claims; some call them “gross generalization”; some even complain that there is no backup… Since I’ve been doing it, the quality of my feed/discussions improved considerably. #ViaNegativa https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1018178698242117639   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So for the nomenclatura, ageism is not bigotry (check w/intellectual fraudster @NickCohen4). Aside from selective bigoteering, they haven’t yet discovered that respect for the elder if shared by practically every civilization (Meds, Semites, Chinese,…) for #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/1017842202263916549   Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters This problem dedicated to the Memory of our friend Alexander Bogomolny. @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math pic.twitter.com/pFepfWfNDb Permalink 1:03 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb What identity activists & the Stalinist pol police are doing to us is making us see someone as “person from race/gender/orientation (X,Y,Z)” instead of just seeing “Joe”, “Wang”or “Cunégonde”. Nothing short of alienation. #AbstractUniversalism is the arch-enemy of humanism. Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Jul 2018

@Mehdi_IR_DC It’s so funny to see “progressive” ppl being offended by Trump “disrespecting” the Queen; the very person who believes she is superior than the rest cuz of her blood. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The “Black” Kazars the “Northern” Kazars? Avoid confusion. For discussion: @peterfrankopan @GhassanDahhan https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1017815603778867201   Permalink 10:14 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Question: Is there a reason I did not lose followers? Is the process still going? Permalink 6:40 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For Christmas, a formal edition of the INCERTO (gold leaf etc.). Now 5 volumes. Now working on the (so far) 2 volumes of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. pic.twitter.com/KFUzHPl0Qa Permalink 6:11 AM – 12 Jul 2018

@nntaleb While the business of historians is faithful description of the past, @peterfrankopan specializes in faithful descriptions of the future. https://twitter.com/peterfrankopan/status/1017106103811919872   Permalink 1:44 PM – 11 Jul 2018

@RonPaul *Special Announcement* Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) To Speak At Ron Paul Institute Conference 2018!! pic.twitter.com/PQmzJRmj6e Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@SS_strength “My understanding of this concept has improved, thanks to my friend Nassim Nicholas Taleb, so I thought I’d share it with you.” https://startingstrength.com/article/the-phenomenology-of-barbell-training   Permalink 10:32 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Oh my Baal! Chased my Monsanto! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1017074409838927880   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@black_swan_man Page 5… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture #grassfed pic.twitter.com/eaQL6sx4Yg Permalink 8:53 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It takes five years to learn how to make money; and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it. Permalink 5:45 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@mikeandallie (2/4) It is memorable not just for being a good problem but also for illustrating the amazing interaction between Bogomolny and Nassim Taleb. Taleb’s approach always got to the heart of the puzzle quickly and showed me how to share seemingly very advanced problems with kids. pic.twitter.com/csAYIcSXFF Permalink 4:37 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@ClintEhrlich 1st time one reads @nntaleb: Geez, this guy is a dick. So f-ing arrogant! 2nd time: Ok, he’s right. But why does he have to be so rude about it? 3rd time: Taleb is a true gentleman. He makes all the right enemies. https://twitter.com/anandk_00/status/1016694279824031744   Permalink 5:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Something abt Maestro Bogomolny’s @CutTheKnotMath mathematical purity I can now reveal. He had a hearing pblm (0% in ear, ~ in oth.) not remediable using aids. He left academia as he couldn’t communicate. He did math for math, not as a career. He wanted his site to make no $. Permalink 3:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@Steveonomics My favorite LinkedIn comment regarding @SouthwestAir banning peanuts. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/bYx2vQvdGj Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Whole Book in PRogress https://www.dropbox.com/s/x15o6padci0bwgi/Collected.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 2:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb LIMIT DISTRIBUTIONS, a Tutorial (Chapter in the Technical INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/gyJAQ1g6un Permalink 2:15 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@TheLikevillePod @nntaleb talks with the @TheLikevillePod about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, how intellectual-yet-idiots get us into trouble, and much else. https://overcast.fm/+MApFBBGos   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2EBrLwHsAI”>  pic.twitter.com/2EBrLwHsAI Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Excellent response. Doers and Risk Takers >>>Tawkers. Period. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016731812159254529   Permalink 10:46 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In Russian, competitor is конкурент (as in French “concurrent”, Italian “concorrente” cc: @mathieuhelie ), a co-runner. There is no implication of antagonism. You need a “concurrent” because you do not engage in a race against yourself. Permalink 8:25 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@anandk_00 1st time one reads Taleb: it sounds true. 2nd time: one starts being aware of the concepts in operation in ones life, and in general, the world. 3rd time: one wonders how did he/she not get the beauty in the 1st reading itself. Permalink 7:43 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1016675211729670146   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@ThomasSowell “There is much discussion of the haves and the have-nots, but very little discussion of the doers and the do-nots, those who contribute and those who merely take.” Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters @CutTheKnotMath Alexander, I know that you are up there in heaven and I hear there is a wifi connection set up there. So you should be able to tweet your #Math problems to us. We’re getting desperate down here. @nntaleb Permalink 4:13 PM – 9 Jul 2018

@diomavro I can honestly say I’ve learned more about probability and recursion from Alexander than the accumulation of all my university classes. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1015928573411119104   Permalink 5:45 AM – 9 Jul 2018

@GWeynerowski @Likeville hits it out of the park again. This is another fascinating, entertaining conversation led by @john_f_hamer that will make you see the world anew. And as for you, @nntaleb, quit blowing my mind! https://twitter.com/TheLikevillePod/status/1016100679583174657   Permalink 4:55 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb If someone wants a ride w/me, pls mention. I am leaving from Westchester. Permalink 2:18 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb From the family: All meet at Floral Park Cemetery at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow 7/9/2018, 104 Deans Rhode Hall Road, Monmouth Junction, NJ 08852. Tel 732-297-2336. Then ” everyone is welcome in our house afterwards […], East Brunswick, NJ” Permalink 2:15 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 6) The Anachronistic Fallacy, 2 You cannot flow today’s rules of morality backward in time & judge people THEN based on rules developed later. Morality comes from customs (mores). No law should be retroactive, something the bigoteers don’t get. Permalink 9:56 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Had the fellow applied this formidable cunning & astuteness to business he would have been montrously successful. https://nyti.ms/2KFCcOh   Permalink 8:51 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Soccer is fundamentally a high variance game. https://twitter.com/Mehdi_IR_DC/status/1013792319550705665   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 5) THE ANACHRONISTIC FALLACY Injustice was done in the past with invasions, etc. But justice cannot operate without STATUTES of LIMITATIONS: we can’t invoke the Pilgrims, w/o going back to Bronze Age migrations. Arguments abt who did what >100 y ago are necessarily invalid. Permalink 5:32 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) Immigration requires sacrifice and skin in the game. pic.twitter.com/djbetZXJBP Permalink 5:15 AM – 2 Jul 2018

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