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Espen Haug, Krugman, Monsanto, @DylanRatigan, Localism, #RWRI 8, TECHNICAL INCERTO, Powerful Yet Slaves | Twitter

@spyrosmakrid 1/ The M4 Competition, ended on 31/5, was an Open one, with its most important objective: “to learn to improve f/cing accuracy and advance the field”, in contrast to “horse race” ones, as those organized by Kaggle, aimed at finding winners in a black box. The M4’s findings follow Permalink 1:25 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge! The best kind of practical problems.   Permalink 12:58 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Maltese is a language invented by a Levantine who read a lot of Italian novels.   Permalink 12:22 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Flaneuring bil Lébnéné = “shmm hawa” or, better, “re5iya”, or “2awwas 3ind rabbna” (about men of leisure).   Permalink 12:04 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fl-ajruplan lejn Malta fl-aħħar Permalink 11:21 PM – 7 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only if negatively correlated with another exposure of higher expected value in absolute terms. In other words, pay for insurance.   Permalink 1:37 AM – 7 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Espen is now doing work in physics. Veteran option traders have a no-nonsense approach to probability.   Permalink 6:13 PM – 6 Jun 2018

@EGHaug Out flaneuring with @nntaleb in Oslo, long bright days, and always some bright interesting insight from NNT on probabilities and life… Permalink 8:15 AM – 6 Jun 2018

@AlgoSlayer Oldie, but a goodie. Featuring @nntaleb Permalink 8:04 AM – 6 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Please. Please.   Permalink 9:16 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Unpublished 2nd volume of Dynamic Hedging Permalink 6:35 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ma bi 7ékkak illa difrak = Your finger, and only your finger, can scratch your itch. [Liberal translation: finger in place of nail] Permalink 4:03 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb LOCALISM explained in Lebanese: Ma bi 7ékkak illa difrak Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Krugman used his bully pulpit to take a cheap shot at @charlesmurray he deemed lower in the social science hierarchy. Murray isn’t my ideal intellecktshual, but @paulkrugman as a BS vendor is no judge of rigor, science, business, finance, ideas, erudition, or anything.   Permalink 5:26 PM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto figured out that calling a group “Academic Reviews” or “Literacy Project” they could promote their junk w/suckers believing the groups are actually “pro-science” -like dictatorships that call themselves “democratic republic” These agents will pay for destroyed careers.   Permalink 12:57 PM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4 hours left, 6k votes so far.   Permalink 10:45 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Should have been for a weekend. A problem from the 2005 AMC   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 9:18 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For years I have been shouting “Delenda Monsanto” to whoever could listen. Looks like my wishes may be finally coming true. Another delenda: Saudi Barbaria Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Bayer is ditching the Monsanto name. Predictably, a liability: the most evil firm in history. Now will they also ditch the Monsanto practices: + intimidation of scientists + smear campaigns + lobbying + infiltration of the FDA + promotion of scientism w/jounos “pro-science” etc.   Permalink 4:07 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@raktagulikaa Wow, had no idea of this history in connection with the “olive oil vs butter” and “Europeans borrowing civilization” comments of @nntaleb   Permalink 12:27 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We know, empirically, that @paulkrugman’s opinion is useless taken at face value –practically abt everything. But can he be useful as “reverse indicator”, like traders so bad yet so nonrandom that colleagues imitate them in reverse (i,e. go short if they are bullsish, etc.) ? Permalink 2:49 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My friend @DylanRatigan is running for elections as Democrat, but he has strong localist tendencies. To show that left-right is less meaningful.   Permalink 2:35 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is not tawk, but Skin in the Game. With @financequant and other members, we trained so far 400 people at less than ½ the tuition for executive education, w/30% scholarships, and our lecktchurs had 4-5 instructors present because it was so much fun.   Permalink 2:15 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My experiment with the 8 cycles of #RWRI proved that, presently > 82% of university costs are to cover metastatic bureaucracies & lobbying real estate developers. In other words you can cut edyukashion costs from $50K to $9K with NO effect. Universities are committing suicide.   Permalink 2:00 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@_pierreblanc The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding, or better at explaining than doing. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life @nntaleb @GaryMarcus #futureofwork Permalink 12:37 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Lahol yallé baddon yshufo kif lMalté 2arib 3an lghat Sémiyyé (2ul “Sémé” msh “3arabé”). Lézém nmshé warahon. #Localism   via @YouTube Permalink 10:24 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A nice Cretan metaproblem for the morning coffee. Is a liar also necessarily a liar about being a liar? Is a liar who tells you that he is a liar a liar?   Permalink 6:13 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR. If 50% of the work is done by 1% of the people, prove that 80% of the work will be done by 20% of the people, assuming scalability.   Permalink 5:48 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) The Phoenicians were the localists of history, maneuvering across dominant empires by paying for mafia protection. Centralistas are so programmed to think anachronistically in nation-states that they spread the incoherent thesis by @josephinequinn that they didn’t exist. Permalink 4:22 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Those who say it is better not to mess with genetics may be right   Permalink 4:18 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb That’s the reason to practice mathematics on a daily basis, especially when you write books & articles. Not because math is directly useful in life, but just to avoid turning into something like @sapinker   Permalink 3:38 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@RubenGao “Not everything that happes happens for a reason. But everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:20 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@SBakerMD President of Australian Medical Association want Netflix to remove Keto friendly film “Magic Pill” Stupid or Corrupt?? Cast your votes now! Permalink 4:25 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #RWRI 8 THE SELF REFERENCE PROBLEM OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS A Quiz based on a rule offered by @Sarasewda, cc:@normonics @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:44 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The naive political “scientists” (& other BS vendors) think superficially, in labels. They want the U.S. to not be a colony of Britain, but want Britain to be a colony of Brussels, & Nebraska to be a colony of Washington, D.C. They don’t get centralization . Permalink 10:20 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People not trained in modern science are programmed to thing in terms of “left” & “right”, still trapped in a stone-age discourse. They miss on the property of scaling: effect is not invariant to size of autonomous unit. #localism #minorityrule   Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@Sarasewda My biggest takeaway. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us. Life looks different now #RWRI #Rule22 @trishankkarthik @nntaleb   Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The opposite of fascism isn’t a democratic form of socialism; it’s localism. Permalink 9:27 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The generalized birthday paradox from a @CutTheKnotMath problem Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #RWRI Trivia: the best skills in applied probability are found in quant finance. Discovered that Nick Patterson the wiz kid mathematician of genetics worked at Renaissance when @financequant was a partner there.   Permalink 7:19 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: a lot of NY   Permalink 6:04 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8 Answered @Shuwen22973519 Q abt error by geneticist @mt_genes trolling in support of some UK classicist w/o understanding the notion of JOINT distributions: if “Most Likely” (max p) subclades map to autosomal cluster, via ~k-mean, then necessarily indicative of origin.   Permalink 6:02 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) Accepting that some people (“past victims”) should be treated differently in matters of “racism” implies: accepting to have discounted (or waved) penalties for past victims of theft when they themselves commit theft. So many logical inconsistencies in these arguments! Permalink 5:29 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@Learn_lebanese naqqé ḥarf lal ح bel leğğa l’lebanneniyé. #LL Permalink 4:16 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: high Sharpe ratios are predictive of huge blowups. The more stable the return, the more likely the blowup. Volatile funds lose money; but not as much as nonvolatile ones. Permalink 11:45 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: Lecktchurer talking about how intellectulas yet idiots nudgeboys @r_thaler @CassSunstein increase risk in the system Permalink 9:13 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Looking forward to seeing you all at ICCS 2018! @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @swimdaily @normonics @trishankkarthik @stephen_wolfram @barabasi @ednapasher @cesifoti @C4computation   Permalink 8:00 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) To establish societal symmetry: The bigotteer needs to be penalized the same as the bigot. The false accuser needs to be penalized as if he committed the crime himself (Hammurabi). etc. Permalink 5:05 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It is RACIST to penalize someone from race A saying something abt someone from race B, but not someone from race B saying something abt someone from race A. It is worse than racist: it breaks societal symmetry. The same applies to gender. Permalink 4:55 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand why some writers (Balzac) were obsessed with printing. Marx was right about the alienation (which he eventually helped increase). Artisans minimize the distance between labor and fruits of labor. Permalink 4:45 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I wrote in SITG abt artisans seeing their full product, unlike factory workers laboring on a portion of it. There is an immense satisfaction writing a book while controling 100% of the aesthetics,on the final format, as it will look *exactly* on the page. It makes it artisanal. Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, The Vol 1 of theTECHNICAL INCERTO, “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Technical Papers and Commentary” will come out this year (color), thanks to @TuckerMax who manages my STEM ACADEMIC PUBLISHING (contract signed). Writing math on final format is like painting. Permalink 3:40 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@garyruskin Professor Leemon McHenry’s McHenry’s full paper on the #MonsantoPapers:   And his letter to publisher @tandfonline, regarding his paper on the #MonsantoPapers, and its apparent double standard in publishing   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:01 PM – 31 May 2018

@DataSciFact New post: Six sigma events Riffing on a line from @nntaleb   Permalink 12:46 PM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb I am going on a linguistic trip. Alone, just to tawk & listen to the local language to get inspiration for the Lebanese neo-Phoenician writing system. Permalink 12:29 PM – 31 May 2018

@GuruAnaerobic ‘These findings suggest that during ageing, mitochondria lose the ability to produce energy during maximal efforts bt not when the energetic demand is lower.’ G. Anaerobic – “aging is diminishing tails; retain the ability to generate/withstand extremes”   Permalink 8:23 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb “Nice guy” (“asshole”) is a compliment (insult) when uttered by family member (charlatans). Permalink 7:30 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Ana raye7 3a Malta la et3allam kif byektbo leghton el-Samiyyé e bi 3isho ka Europiyyé b-légha mitl tab3iitna. Permalink 6:18 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Friends, where in Malta should one stay? Permalink 5:36 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Some optimist on the Greco-Turkish fraternity, once they get it that they may have the same lineage.   Permalink 6:58 PM – 30 May 2018

@Shuwen22973519 I just uploaded ‘Oinops pontos.docx’ to @academia!   Permalink 6:57 PM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb The success of twitter lies in twitter fights. (An idea of @normonics ) Permalink 5:16 PM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb “If p=np I don’t want to be alive” @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:35 PM – 30 May 2018

@trishankkarthik @financequant: A model does not describe its own limitations and risks. @nntaleb #RWRI (I may have butchered it a bit, but you get the idea) Permalink 1:04 PM – 30 May 2018

@hagaetc I never imagined that my idols @nntaleb and @kanyewest would pride my wall in one single picture, but then again black swans do occur – scoopdidypoop! Permalink 12:15 PM – 30 May 2018

@john_f_hamer “Religion isn’t so much about telling man that there is one God as about preventing man from thinking that he is God.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb @BarbaraRKay @ahaspel @TheJosephRosen Permalink 11:19 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb Thanking @_swanson for the recommendation. Permalink 11:02 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb Italian publisher is in town. Permalink 10:23 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb We are now talking about GMO idiots who don’t get CA.   Permalink 7:10 AM – 30 May 2018

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb Rule 110 is universal Permalink 6:58 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb μα μπα3ρεφ… μιμκεν μπασ λεζεμ νγαυυερ καμμ σηαγλε   Permalink 4:24 AM – 30 May 2018

@EJSMD Recall, when Public Health initiatives fail, they can fail in spectacular fashion. —low fat diet & obesity crisis —chronic pain Rx & opioid crisis —#EHR, metrics & MD burnout Central health planners need #skininthegame @nntaleb @afrakt @aaronecarroll   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:15 AM – 30 May 2018

@LIHF_Living Finished this last night.. Before reading @nntaleb I thought I was alone and going insane. After reading, I was comforted by the fact that there are at least 2 nutters in the world that think alike, and a namesake at that! Permalink 11:08 PM – 29 May 2018

@nntaleb You can control people. You can’t control information. People are upset over the ban, much, much more than the arrest. The more you stifle information, the louder it gets. #Antifragile   Permalink 4:42 AM – 29 May 2018

@nntaleb Fi shi ismo AERAL INFLUENCE: lamma legtein byen7eko 7add ba3don, bisouro byeshbaho naghmet ba3don: lfrensewé 3indo l “r” mitl el Ilmané, l3ibrani mitl l Ilmané. L bayruté mitl l Tilyéné naghméto (wl Yunéné): lamma ne7ké Tiliyéné ma 3inna lahjé awiyyé. Permalink 3:56 AM – 29 May 2018

@ole_b_peters What can I say? Thank you for spreading the word, @nntaleb. I’m fully aware it sounds unbelievable, and I suppose that’s why economics journals haven’t yet published it. Our approach right now: demonstrate scientific superiority of the alternative formalism.   Permalink 10:57 AM – 28 May 2018

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