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Explaining both the XIV trade and why forecasting is BS | Youtube

N N Taleb’s Probability Moocs
Published on Feb 10, 2018
Antifragile explains why understanding x is different from f(x) the payoff or exposure from x. Most of the harm/gains come from f(x) being convex or concave not understanding x. Forecasting is off an average, and average is for academics and other morons.

This video illustrates the point with XIV that went bust while being correct about volatility –and why people who make money are usually wrong.

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