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Lindy, Globalism, Nikki Haley, Stiglitz, Pinker, Bitcoin, Futures, Daou, COVFEFE, Olives – Twitter

@Spfannenschmidt Nassim Taleb eyeing an IYI @nntaleb   Permalink 3:36 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule in action!   Permalink 3:27 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Lebanese philology du jour: I want to suggest (based on folk etymology) that the Lebanese “tofshiita” (a bunch of malarkey) has its origins in the Aramaic ܦܫܝܛܬܐ/פשיטה for “simple,” whence the Peshitta 4 gospels come. Thoughts @nntaleb @turlevnon?? Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@financequant Globalism fosters points of centralized power which can (seemingly) “optimize” their outputs, creating conditions which work well when they work but which fail catastrophically when they don’t. Optimized systems, in a narrow sense, do not fail gracefully. 1/2   Permalink 9:45 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 2) (and more) Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 1) Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Never met a classicist who understands 1) Semitic philology 2) that times has an arrow that flows in one direction 3) that genetics like paternity tests >> oral history 4) that East-Med (Greek, Anatolian, Armenian & Canaanite) genetics are similar Permalink 7:00 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR: Bar-ra in Leb (=outside) from B-ra (Aramaic) actually Akkadian. Barbar-Ru dog (outside wolf). Quest: any connection to βάρβαρος (i.e. outsider ) rather than onomatopeia for incomprehensible sounds? Hint: initially applied to Semitic-speaking Maltese.   Permalink 6:49 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Yes, expected. Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is closing.   Permalink 5:59 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is not “Lindy” (i.e., prone to the Lindy effect).   Permalink 5:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People have the illusion that “globalism” is good for commerce. It is mainly good for commerce by large crony corporations, creating fragility & winner-take-all effects. Permalink 3:52 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A “bubble” becomes a bubble when you run out nonbankrupt people calling it a bubble. Permalink 3:52 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Nikki Haley is a shameless, flagrant, uninformed, clueless, low-IQ BS vendor. We need her out of the UN. Saudi Barbaria has been killing THOUSANDS of Yemeni civilians. Yemen has killed NO Saudi Civilians.   Permalink 3:31 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The sad part is that it is true. As demonstrated, a “Nobel” in economics correlates with negative knowledge.   Permalink 3:06 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@JamesMarsh79 Robert Taft was firmly against @R_Thaler and #sunstein Permalink 11:18 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath To continue the odyssey #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For 10 seconds, I was scared: I thought I wrote the article. That solution is sooooooooo simple. Permalink 7:36 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I have not seen anybody provide an argument for why Joseph Stiglitz is socially useful.   Permalink 2:28 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@AStratelates Reminder. Permalink 8:30 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Deriving the distribution of Bitcoin assuming Log Returns Student-T as specified by @financequant . (There is no PDF for corresponding Stable Dist. For Cauchy set alpha=1) Permalink 3:04 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In other words, IYI Pinker @sapinker promotes an article by journo @mark_lynas making pro-GMO “scientific”, when there is NO SINGLE tail risk analysis for GMOs & no single study on consumers, & nothing that’s not Monsanto cooked.   Permalink 2:34 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Pinker is clueless about anything that has a 2nd order effect. In other words, about practically everything.   Permalink 9:37 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The right link   Permalink 9:21 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@phl43 The Financial Times (  ) just gave a lesson on how to write a headline that is both intentionally misleading and strictly speaking true. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:58 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comment “sent” la traduction? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a big quotient #FigureThat #math #probability This is step one towards a harder problem Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am fighting for the rest of the world, particularly the US, to have the fractal, bottom-up properties & the governance of CHF.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Antifragility for CHF is because they used to benefit from turmoil elsewhere –and will hopefully do so in the future. My model country.   Permalink 3:43 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin seems to fit a Stable Distr, cannot rule out Cauchy! (Collaboration w/ @financequant ) Note that this makes practically any price level possible: whether 100K or 100. Permalink 3:34 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My Christmas Class party at NYU Tandon for my fat tails class. Permalink 4:35 PM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Chers amis, quelle est la traduction francaise la plus claire de “bullshit”? (c’est pour mon livre) Permalink 11:02 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@trueThorLund When @nntaleb writes abt taxi driver brother free to have own opinion, I imagine this…   Permalink 10:09 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is that idiot is representative of a new generation of investors who don’t get that one can make claims about volatility & tails without committing to a direction?   Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is it 1) stupid people become financial journalists or 2) financial journalism makes people stupid?   Permalink 8:13 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb J2 Haplogroup, of course. Permalink 7:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Announcement by my Calabrez teachers: Antonio’s is open on Sunday Dec 24. Traduzione: Antonio’s abarberia aperto Domeni(c)ga diciembre 24. Permalink 6:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Confusezeus The reaction to Trump’s declaration of #Jerusalem as a capital of Israel is more a reaction against #Trump himself than against the declaration. Here are three former presidents saying the same thing with no fuss to follow.   Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Permuted Inequality   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:05 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Shorting a future creates an unbounded liability: you are responsible for all your personal assets. Unlike futures, options have natural sellers: covered calls (hence spreadable into synthetic puts), & they should have been introduced AT THE SAME TIME as the future. Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Yarimatahari @RBReich note @nntaleb call for decentralization as a tool against corporate lobbyists   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The fellow @harrynwilson is actually owning that their headline is a clickbait that doesn’t match the content –treated as fine print. In other words, what charlatans do.   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@mikeandallie The most interesting piece of math I learned in 2017 was thanks to @octonion and @nntaleb -> the COVFEFE problem:   #math #mathchat Permalink 2:53 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@ido87 @nntaleb Had to smile when I saw this. Antifragility and the development of urban water infrastructure:   Permalink 1:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@John07331405 How India Economic Times reported this tweet:   Apparently you think it’s LIKELY bitcoin will hit $100k. Permalink 1:12 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Cernovich Schiff was source of the fake CNN story and they have the guy on the very next day. Very Fake Jake!   Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Note that Bitcoin has a limited number of natural sellers. The entire concept is very concave supply (it costs more and more to extract). The number of producers shrinks with time. Permalink 3:03 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb As usual, fake news. “Properly” is key. Fools “can” short.   Permalink 2:36 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This form of entrepreneurship [flipping companies] is the equivalent of bringing great looking and marketable children to this world with the sole aim to sell them at age 4. Permalink 12:52 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A heuristic for happiness/contentment/good disposition: You are not upset to hear that someone you know has been owning bitcoin since 2011. Permalink 8:51 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@MaxAbrahms So, it turns out the pundits were wrong about Assad and the Islamic State as I’ve been saying forever.   Permalink 6:09 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Very big point. Futures that don’t have deliverables require a very, very deep market. Otherwise someone long the future can push prices higher at settlement time with impunity, by “locking” profits (never having to resell a deliverable).   Permalink 5:41 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Generalization of a problem by Maestro Alexander B @CutTheKnotMath (tex file   ) ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:49 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can ignore Daou (as he doesn’t have the basic reasoning abilities to know what a fallacy means); but here is a good puzzle: Daou a Lebanese word (meaning illumination), doesn’t exist in Syro-Aramaic. I cannot find an Ugaritic/Western Semitic root. Permalink 4:05 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A Kafkaesque World. With the inquisition spirit & the criminalization of politics, you will soon wake up every morning with the question: “Which rule I didn’t know existed did I violate yesterday?” Permalink 2:24 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin: my answer to the repeated questions. No, there is NO way to properly short the bitcoin “bubble”. Any strategy that doesn’t entail options is nonergodic (subjected to blowup). Just as one couldn’t rule out 5K, then 10K, one can’t rule out 100K. Gabish? Permalink 8:05 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Peter Daou, I exposed a major fallacy in your argument. You respond with two elementary fallacies. Will you respond next with four even more elementary fallacies? Permalink 6:34 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@jeorgen @nntaleb’s fundamental notion: We live in a non-linear world, or else it wouldn’t exist. Permalink 6:22 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@GuruAnaerobic Think of sugar/carbohydrate as a ‘pollutant’. Both Zero-carbers and High-carbers miss this, as well as the difference between acute and chronic.   Permalink 3:41 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For those who do NOT understand nonlinearity of dose-response with respect to pollutants: Permalink 3:11 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here, in 2017, we have to watch legal scholar @AlanDersh explain to one (very) intellectually challenged @peterdaou that legal expertise doesn’t equate with supporting Hillary. This is not 2017 BC. This is 2017 AD.   Permalink 4:20 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Sorry, this is the one Permalink 3:24 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The COVFEFE solution with code. Permalink 3:07 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine The Aramaic lo ta`lan l-nesyuno (with the verb “alel” standing for “enter into” or “lead into”) means precisely “do not let us enter into” temptation: ולא תעלנא לנסיונא   Permalink 4:43 AM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb More details about precaution w/respect to climate. Permalink 9:50 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The author of the manual, Bernard Gui, is the villain in the Name of the Rose. He has a lot to teach the repressive autocratic pseudo-left. Permalink 9:12 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My French publisher has a time-tested manual for those who want to engage in the modern pseudo-leftist inquisition. Permalink 8:26 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tartare (Paris) “Jouer sa peau” is the new title. Permalink 4:47 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@GeertNoels We have only one planet. Even a risk with a very low probability becomes unacceptable when it affects all of us Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – @nntaleb Permalink 11:23 PM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lshaghlé lwa7idé lmfakkrin jéyé minl3arabé hiyye’l “al” (wl jam3 lmaksur). Tel3et Kin3aniyyé. Home run. Permalink 2:14 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb “Jouer sa Peau” “Risquer sa Peau” Permalink 2:12 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du jour: only supposedly “certain” import from Arabic “al” into Lebanese actually from later Canaanite: “hal”, a form still in use, or even “l”. So “l-bét/hal-bét” (the house) it is NOT “al-bayt” (Arabic) or “beyto/a”(Syriac/Aramaic), but EXACTLY Phoenician. Permalink 12:52 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Les épreuves de mon livre. Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@byzantinepower Exceptionally erudite article by @DrMichaelBonner on the hybridity of the Classics (inc a war-cry for Aramaic) & a settlement of scores re: @nntaleb & @wmarybeard. A brilliant way to kick off the morning…   Permalink 12:08 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Someone in the classics understood me in my bone with Mary Beard! And yes, Aramaic is the West.   via @academia Permalink 1:35 PM – 5 Dec 2017

@elalterego01 @nntaleb . Look what is happening to the people you have uncovered   Permalink 8:27 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Henry Corbin’s 4 volume treatise on Shiism. Permalink 2:55 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am now in the Beirut Armenian. Permalink 11:26 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comparing Beirut(Aleppo) Armenian to Moscow Armenian Permalink 11:21 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People get The Minority Rule.   Permalink 3:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tripes Phoenician-style with a Georges Brassens lookalike remote cousin (whose name is also Georges). Permalink 12:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Orthodox priest in Amioun blessing a meal at a luncheon party. Permalink 3:18 AM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Respect.   Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Expected time to COVFEFE: part of the exam at the Indian Statistical Institute. cc:@CutTheKnotMath Permalink 11:09 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Between the Carybde of pseudo-empiricism and the Scylla of postmodernism.   Permalink 10:33 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@primalpoly Are you for or against the @nntaleb poll about whether you’re for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 5:20 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can see that somewhere between 1% and 65% of my Twitter followers don’t understand the Godel-Popper paradox, or meta-problem that is, that you can’t use electoral system to vote against democracy or that you can’t let Salafis vote in democratic societies. Permalink 5:09 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thread opens a BS detection prog: take claim”Arabic/Islamic science INVENTED x”, debunk & show historian misappropriates stuff by Persians/Chaldeans/GrecoPhoenicians/Syriacs. I’ve discussed in ThBlackSwan the lack of evidential rigor among historians. (& note funding by KSA)   Permalink 3:16 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Four hours left to vote, particularly for those against twitter polls.   Permalink 11:49 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability with Factorials   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mediterranean vodka. Permalink 9:33 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The reason crusaders used fat is because olive oil cultivation was not widespread and local to narrow Med strips. Northern Europeans were not representative of Western civilization. They still aren’t fully so. Permalink 7:09 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Fafinski, it is simple. There were between 60-180 Arab tribes. Banu Ghassan was one of them. Can you generalize to Arabs? More significant, do you know how few the Ghassanids were then? I can’t make you rigorous, I can just prevent you from bullshitting on Twitter. Permalink 6:57 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@EatTheDormouse Prof. Mulder, crediting Arab/Islamic society with ancient Mediterranean or Persian practices is saying we owe the cultivation of maize to American settlers. Highly insulting and anachronistic Permalink 6:34 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here is the distribution of olives. A Mediterranean thing. The Western cultivation came mostly later. Twitter is not a good place for confabulatory and anachronistic statements. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb and Byzantines are now Islamic? Permalink 5:44 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb You made a false claim and are now justifying it with …colonialism? Your bogus definition of Islamic covers pre-Islamic cultures, including Jews. Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We are discussing an INVENTION after the 7th Century, so please, please, no anachronism. You are a historian. Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb To call this an “invention” of the Islamic world one needs evidence it did not predate the Arab invasion of the Levant. Permalink 4:39 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This comes is from a Levantine practice of annointing with oil (Messiach from “wipe”). And do not confuse “shemen” in Aramaic (oil) w/Samen (fat). cc:@stephenniem Permalink 4:38 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is likely to be wrong. Arabs had no olives. This may be a pre-Islamic Syriac tradition. The usual “appropriation” by Arabs of Persian, Chaldean and Levantine sciences.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2nd version (first was 2015). Permalink 3:54 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The expected P-Value Hacking derivations. Fooled by Randomness. Permalink 3:53 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: Historically Lebanon refers to the White Mountain, not the coastal cities, collectively called Phoenicia up to Byzantine times. Permalink 2:17 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Snow slowly covering The White Mountain above Northern Phoenicia. Permalink 2:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Are you for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 4:18 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The median academic paper is read by ~ 2 pple. Some economists like Stiglitz have 10^5 citations with negative contribution to society (advice on FNMA/Venzuela is worse than silence). Same with econometrics. Do the math. Permalink 12:24 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Not quite the same origins. Levantine is inherited from much older languages than Arabic. I did a statistical analysis of words.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:17 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) For instance one may invoke justice and equality to completely open borders between Eu & Africa (or US & Mexico) & call anyone who disagree “racist”. The definition of freedom is more robust. Permalink 6:05 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) freedom of speech is a robust definition, scale invariant, and rigid across time and situations. Justice and other concepts are relative and vary with time, place, and scale. Permalink 5:53 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As much as I fight Shermer’s bad empiricism & pseudo-rationalism, I support him in his endeavor to promote freedom of expression as the pivotal element of intellectual life.   Permalink 5:35 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb It all starts with writing in the vernacular. And the understanding that the “Arabs” in Algeria are predominantly of Beber origin. Permalink 4:23 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algeria will probably be the first Arab League “Member” to de-Arabize, renew with its West-Med historical roots.   via @Algérie Part Permalink 1:08 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@_skininthegame Met Nassim “No-BS” Taleb at Kusturica concert in Moscow. Partying with the Russians. Thanks for everything @nntaleb Permalink 7:37 PM – 29 Nov 2017

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