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S. Arabia, Hariri, SSRN, Copyeditors, Catalans, Monsanto | Twitter

@nntaleb Hariri’s resignation: idiots in Saudi Arabia and the U.S. admin are geopolitizing the Lebanese conflict.   Permalink 3:19 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb No difference of opinion shd EVER allow spreading fake memes. But no difference of opinion shd EVER lead to call for censorship. Permalink 1:10 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb There is something nonrandom about seemingly unconnected events in the past 36 hours in Saudi Arabia.   Permalink 1:01 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@u_vakalate @nntaleb #Lindy   Permalink 12:50 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Being nice in a non-BS way. Permalink 5:13 AM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb When one suddenly realizes the pun is in … Persian.   Permalink 3:49 AM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb S. Arabia: Could be pre-emptive purge. Could be abortive putsch. Could be just acceleration of reform. Still early for pronouncements.   Permalink 3:09 PM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) For the Holy Roman Empire was never Roman: Byzantium was. Nor was it ever Holy. Nor was it an Empire. Permalink 1:34 PM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 1) N. Europe’s usurpation of Ancient Western Civilization (Med) was started w/the Holy Roman Empire usurpation of the Roman Empire. Permalink 1:33 PM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink with @MichaelSagnerMD Permalink 11:11 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@GhassanDahhan Never understood why Liberals like to see an Islamic Reformation. It’s already here: it’s called Salafism. Permalink 9:10 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb You can see the Lindy effect: of the 100 authors that made it ~70 y later, I think ~16% had the Nobel. Permalink 9:00 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Correction. Note that Hariri is a BANKRUPT Saudi lackey living partly in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 6:05 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that Hariri is a Saudi lackey living partly in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 5:58 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Practical consequence on BigData BS: Divide a state into 16 counties: 17% probability of 1 county RANDOMLY having 6 times the state average. Permalink 5:51 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The shortest (but not necessarily best) answer, using combinatorics. cc:@erugli Permalink 5:07 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@mikeandallie Sharing @nntaleb ‘s dart probability problem with kids:   #math #mathchat Permalink 4:43 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 98 1/8 (Ulysses) Permalink 12:19 PM – 3 Nov 2017

@JackBMontgomery After France orders cross removal, Hungarians ask: “Is everyone entitled to religious freedom except Christians?”   Permalink 8:39 AM – 3 Nov 2017

@nntaleb OK, literary books. Permalink 8:00 AM – 3 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Le Monde’s 100 novels of the 20th C. (actually, good list, average ~ 50 y after pub). How many have you read?   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 7:55 AM – 3 Nov 2017

@PoliticalShort Hillary last week: I didn’t know anything about the dossier until after it was published Hillary this week: Damn right I paid for dossier! Permalink 3:05 PM – 2 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem becomes very, very simple if you reformulate it. That’s the point of the exercise. Permalink 6:31 AM – 2 Nov 2017

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ: How randomness should almost never look random. (spurious cancer cluster in Fooled by Randomness) @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 3:50 AM – 2 Nov 2017

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ: How randomness should almost never look random. (spurious cancer cluster in Fooled by Randomness) @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 3:50 AM – 2 Nov 2017

@QuantWolfLine At some point the word “liberal” got hijacked…classical liberalism was free markets, freedom of speech, strength of individual liberty, freedom of religion…”neo-liberalism” is completely opposite beholden to collectivism, more power to centralized state, etc. Quite distorted Permalink 6:25 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@ntferris Yes, Arabism is just a secular form of Islam. We are Rum, the Romans Permalink 1:18 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Here is my page on arXiV. For now, of course. Will me adding all papers in a few days.   Permalink 1:06 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Closed. No more SSRN. Permalink 12:52 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@DavidDiGiovanni Love when someone tries to refute a popular intuition with statistics and then someone who actually understands statistics calls BS   Permalink 12:39 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words, what Brenner can’t get, is that the other car on the highway is not trying to kill you. False comparisons. Sad! Permalink 11:03 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People don’t discriminate on ethnicity/class as much as on looks/ attractiveness. Are diversitymongers focusing on wrong attributes? Permalink 11:01 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb For those slow in getting it, terrorism is game-theoretic, terrorists get the signal to attack if you reduce vigilance, unlike health. Permalink 10:39 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Why we should NEVER compare terrorism to hear attacks. Gabish?   Permalink 10:09 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb How to use statistics to produce BS. Total BS. 1)Terrorism is fat-tailed 2) Terrorism is low BECAUSE we fight it.   Permalink 9:54 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb There is practically nothing liberal among liberals   via @collegefix Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@ccz1 @nntaleb made me aware of this rule of thumb. the less we know the name of the government leader, the more free is that country   Permalink 5:04 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Aramaic (bilingual) du jour   Permalink 5:03 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The skin in the game symmetry does more for social justice than all the communist BS taken together. Permalink 1:03 PM – 31 Oct 2017

@paulportesi @nntaleb As you state Nassim, “The evidence come later”. U.S. moves to revoke that soy protein protects the heart   Permalink 6:21 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Why correlation is not …correlation   Permalink 5:57 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Big data schmig data Permalink 5:56 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb My class lecture tonite. Why PCAs are not PCAs: noise. Marcenko-Pastur for tin-tails, Monte Carlo for Fat Tails.   Permalink 5:51 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Nitwit, I do not write SCIENTIFIC papers on Medium. Permalink 3:55 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Science should be science. Permalink 3:54 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb I am closing my account with SSRN. My papers will be on ArXiv. Permalink 3:45 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@NAChristakis This is what rule of law looks like. Liberal professor who I’m sure has no love of DT (& neither do I), makes this argument. #respect 1/   Permalink 10:34 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@gbponz if @nntaleb were to be chairman of UK’s FSA, an A4 sheet would contain all necessary rules. double spaced. Permalink 10:14 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Further, wrongly accusing someone of “discrimination” is as odious as discrimination itself. @RogueRad Permalink 8:47 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb decision without asymmetry science without skepticism Permalink 8:40 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb #Asymmetry Permalink 7:59 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Sexism, racism, & other forms of discrimination are odious Some don’t get that discrimination in the opposite direction is equally odious Permalink 7:53 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK. The book is done. Permalink 5:24 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@normonics In the not distant future, GMO peddlers will be widely regarded the way cigarette peddlers are Permalink 5:18 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb I have no trouble paying, it is just the paperwork. Permalink 4:41 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Practically EVERYTHING MSM told us about the Syrian war was bull***t. Bull***t manipulated by Qatar/Saudi Arabia.   Permalink 4:06 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Friends, looking for a public domain picture of Eddie Hall weightlifting. Thanks in advance! Permalink 3:47 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@sazohaib would love to recommend my son INCERTO as Bible to face real life. @nntaleb real thanks and love!! Permalink 1:45 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Coin Tossing Contest   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:18 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Quiz du jour as a general solution to A B’s quiz. Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@DrKassandraPari Fine principle And it’s prominently enshrined in Art 1 + 3 Permalink 9:51 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Hammurabi’s code: He who falsely accuses someone of a crime is to be penaliized as if he committed it himself Applies to all: right,left,… Permalink 7:31 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Maybe it is not for you. You should go read someone else. Or the @NewYorker Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Give a text to a copy editor. He will make 3 changes per page. Accept,then give to another editor. You still get 3 changes per page,& so on.   Permalink 5:41 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb There are not two different issues. Never contradict your political stance w/your personal behavior. That’s the idea of #skininthegame   Permalink 2:25 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@MarkDice Hey @Jack, please explain the rationale for suspending Roger Stone, but not Keith Olbermann. — Signed, every conservative on Twitter. Permalink 7:25 PM – 28 Oct 2017

@garyruskin “It’s a situation that is so catastrophic and appalling,” farmer says about the use of #Monsanto’s #dicamba product   Permalink 10:27 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb IRS bureaucrats harm citizens. They pay a fine, not paid by bureaucrats, but by the government, that is, citizens. #skininthegame   Permalink 9:36 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@jeitoapp The Lindy Effect exists precisely to discount short term luck Permalink 9:23 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb By definition, what works cannot be irrational. #lindy, #skininthegame Permalink 9:19 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@justinno Beginning @nntaleb’s Bed of Procrustes, first two aphorisms get right to why/skin in the game. (Will read more when 2yo gives book back) Permalink 5:39 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Classify Iranians as “Asians”,then you MUST classify ½ classics as “Asians”:Lydians, Bithynians,Ponthians, Cilicians, ~all church founders Permalink 5:09 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb How to deal with copyeditors. The more nitpicking a copyeditor, the more likely he is to miss an important mistake. Permalink 4:38 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb How many of the people retweeting this actally have courage? 1 in 100? 1 in 1000?   Permalink 5:04 PM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb “Mr T, I like your work but you call too many pple fraudsters” Me: “There are many fraudsters” Permalink 4:47 PM – 27 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probabilities in powers of 2 Permalink 11:19 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@darwinemkt & only ppl who put their careers on the line, like @jordanbpeterson & @GadSaad do, can claim to having #skininthegame 2/2 Permalink 9:21 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb You need to realize that the only thing a career academic can really teach you is how to be a career academic. Gabish? Permalink 8:18 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Sutor, ne ultra crepidam   Permalink 3:18 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb There is NEVER (narrow) evidence of Black Swans before event By Hitchen’s logic, someone who never died = immortal, as no evidence of death. Permalink 3:16 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb The heroes of history were not virtue-signaling library rats. You can’t learn classical values from career “classicists”. (just added) Permalink 2:45 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@s3og6e .@nntaleb next book >Skin in the Game< is coming out Feb 27. I can’t wait to read it. His announcement on FB.   Permalink 2:32 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Relying on Hitchens on matters of evidence (& limits of it) is no different from relying on a random flight attendant for fixing a rocket.   Permalink 2:51 PM – 26 Oct 2017

@RonPaulInstitut US Allows Saudi Arabia To Plant Wahhabi Seed In Raqqa Rubble   Permalink 1:49 PM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Twitter involuntarily helped Donaldo get elected. This is just to appease the conspirationistas.   Permalink 9:08 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Balls of Two Colors   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:37 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb   Permalink 7:07 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Added to the Logic of Risk Taking:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:07 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Some only find expression as part of mob shaming, when SAFE to do so, & in the bargain, think that they are displaying virtue. Not virtue. Permalink 6:13 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb A modern novel for the Byzantine Ambassador representing the Ottomans as continuation @byzantinepower Permalink 4:02 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Great move. The UN is a machine made to serve its bureaucrats & the journo monoculture.   Permalink 2:10 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Isocrates Silver Rule: Treat weaker states the way you would like stronger states to treat you. Apply to Calalunya. #skininthegame Permalink 1:32 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule.   Permalink 5:04 PM – 25 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Rough Volatility Process (using a Voltera roughness coefficient) Permalink 11:34 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Not moral to tell the Catalans whether they shd be independent, unless you let them decide on your own sovereignty #skininthegame #symmetry Permalink 10:36 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@JulianAssange Democrats spent the last 11 months building a neo-mccarthyite monster. The GOP has now saddled it to run them down. Entirely predictable. Permalink 9:27 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@euronewsfr Happening contre le #glyphosate à Bruxelles #nocomment Permalink 7:25 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Scholarships open for Real World Risk Certificate Nov 13-17   Note that we are 100% uncensored. No thought police. Permalink 7:16 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@alwyn_lau Thanks to @twilliamok for treating me to the best squid ink pasta in Spore! @nntaleb will probably love it too Permalink 6:13 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@garyruskin #Monsanto Faces Blowback Over Cancer Cover-Up   Via @philipbethge @DerSPIEGEL #MonsantoPapers #glyphosate Permalink 5:56 AM – 24 Oct 2017

@SimonDeDeo I’ve written before on the bad stats in election prediction; pleased to see this new preprint from @nntaleb   Permalink 4:43 AM – 24 Oct 2017

@charles_dandolo Voilà qui devrait intéresser @nntaleb   Permalink 2:15 AM – 24 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability à la Tristram Shandy #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 7:35 AM – 20 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Given the probability, Find the sample space   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:29 PM – 19 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Rothschild, @davmicrot, unlike @AlanDersh is rather clueless about his own profession: election forecasting   Permalink 2:41 AM – 19 Oct 2017

@ShipSystem This is the full interview (22min, youtube)   Absolutely worth it Permalink 8:39 AM – 18 Oct 2017

@AlanDersh My commitment to free speech doesn’t depend on who is president.   Permalink 7:48 AM – 18 Oct 2017

@AStratelates That’s why we should follow the @nntaleb method of finding psychological properties described by the ancients that are validated by moderns.   Permalink 8:27 PM – 17 Oct 2017

@nntaleb One can write books on options & pass for “expert” w/o realizing pple don’t hold positions for 8 y; they change daily. BS vendor.   Permalink 5:45 PM – 17 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who reads Arabic, Aramaic/Hebr. shd have noticed there is NO aleph (always separate); only resembrance is to Aram. Shin => Russian Ш   Permalink 3:16 PM – 17 Oct 2017

@naderamin The issue is that it’s not ok to say that North Africans look “black” Permalink 2:48 PM – 16 Oct 2017

@mikeharrisNY This is worth watching. @nntaleb reveals how famous traders can be destroyed in a single day.   Permalink 1:58 PM – 16 Oct 2017

@NennaAltiora Meds r useful 4 nordic supremacists to either claim or use as tokens if they come from the wrong side of the Med,replaceable by any ‘ethnic’ Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@babolix Getting echoes of @nntaleb ‘s spat with historians from John Grays latest column in the New Statesman:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@BloombergTV The Black Monday crash was 30 years ago this week. “Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb recounts the experience   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:16 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@GeorgeJNasr …Levantines, Semites, Africans… We all still exist in spite pseudo historians in the West . kudos2 Nassim 4giving us back our voice Permalink 5:42 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@nntaleb For details, this is what Prof Beard did not like. Will her mob harrass Medium now?   Permalink 4:23 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Dear Prof. Beard, I am aware of your attempts (direct & via an overactive mob) at constraining my rights of expression. The answer is no. Permalink 2:52 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 4) Saw BS accounts of Lebanese war from journos talking to other journos at a bar in Beirut now into history books.   Permalink 7:38 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 3) => fraudsters like a low-IQ Swede who read books abt Levant determining what MY ethno-national identity shd be.   Permalink 7:29 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 2) The mechanism is historian cite historian cite historian, with a weird chain, as Indians say Salma told Sabrina. All over hist of wars. Permalink 7:17 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Just in case you want more example that historians are bullshitters.   Permalink 7:10 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Querry: Is Ketchum involved in executing the “Let Nothing Go” program by Monsanto (which targeted me & failed)?   Permalink 6:53 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@primalpoly Why can’t students stand free speech? They were raised to be frangible. We need #antifragile parenting & schools.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 6:13 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 1/ Many aggressive pseudolibs have smthg highly politically incorrect hidden in them. -Weinstein demeans women -Mary Beard is deeply racist Permalink 5:37 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Fixed typo, shd be >=71 not >1 Tightened equation Permalink 4:52 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An inequality with integrals and constraints   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:16 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb So stage works best when it is set by design to be v. different from life. Not, like Hollywood, trying to make life an imitation of itself. Permalink 9:50 AM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Theater works best when actors wear masks, signifying the actor’s idiosyncracies are supplanted by those of the character. Permalink 9:12 AM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Now is CNN aware that misogynist Michael Weiss violates the moral and ethical rules that CNN itself claims having? Permalink 8:48 AM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb So not only do actors not look like other citizens, they don’t behave like other citizens & movies misrepresent lives of citizens. All fake! Permalink 8:43 AM – 15 Oct 2017

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