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Rabah, Minority Rule, Tesla, Fake Squid Ink, Start a Business, Tracy Alloway, UK Thought Police, Sarsour, Monbiot | Twitter

@nntaleb Done! Changed subtitle again. Now copyediting & fight with copyeditors… Permalink 3:03 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rabah, it seems isn’t just fabricating w/events but faking his resumé. Are others in the chain s.a. @jobahout @BenteScheller also liars? Permalink 1:42 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rabah, he who lies once is unreliable. Looks like you also misrepresenting your position? Are you a “professor”?   Permalink 1:22 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb G., we know Mr Rabah is tot. unreliable, even lunatic. Make the house of cards collapse w/those using him as source.   Permalink 1:06 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rabah,consider in replies that followers are v. intelligent &detect your unreliability in the chain of Syria news   Permalink 12:39 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb From SITG Permalink 11:39 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Another “policy” fellow, Joseph Bahout @jobahout (whom I’ve met) at, of all places @CarnegieEndow disseminating from same dubious source. Permalink 8:12 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb To show you how messed up our information flow on Syria, see this “policy” specialist @BenteScheller citing a liar. Permalink 7:47 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Now that I am done with Mr Makram Rabah (see thread above) beware that his posts and journalism are read as source on the Syrian situation. Permalink 7:03 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Now that I am done with Mr Makram Rabah (see thread above) beware that his posts and journalism are read as source on the Syrian situation. Permalink 7:03 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Makram Rabah, pls explain why your journalism shd be read when: 1) You misdefine terms, mislabel & don’t care 2) You make up facts Permalink 6:37 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb To assess you need to compare # killed while on autopilot vs # killed w/o autopilot, not just look at one single lurid case.   Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah, my participation in the UAE literary festival was pro-bono. Why are you lying about $$? Why are you a Liar? Liar. Permalink 6:15 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah, why does your inability to define terms makes you LIE about “Gulf money”? Can you show evidence of $$? Why are you lying? Permalink 6:11 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Scary if true. Looks like it is true.   Permalink 5:22 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah are you aware that random labels do not constitute an explanation of why you misdefine very elementary terms? Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah you are throwing more random labels to explain the misuse of a label. Can you write down a simple expl., as in 6th grade? Permalink 4:24 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah you are not explaining why one shd heed someone like you or @iyad_elbaghdadi soooo ignorant to misdefine elementary terms. Permalink 4:16 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb So Mr @makramrabah if you mislabel something so elementary, why should anyone read your other crap? Please explain. Permalink 1:49 PM – 12 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah, racism is imparting skills to a race, not studying population migrations. Are all Syrian rebels as ignorant as you? Permalink 1:18 PM – 12 Sep 2017

@RogueRad Why I think doctors should read books by @nntaleb   cc @drjohnm Permalink 10:34 AM – 12 Sep 2017

@nntaleb If you reject unfounded blame, you must also reject unjustified praise. Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Sep 2017

@RandPaul Where is the anti-war left demanding the wars end? Where is the constitional conservative right demanding Congress reclaim its war powers? Permalink 4:25 PM – 11 Sep 2017

@nntaleb On my way   Permalink 12:31 PM – 11 Sep 2017

@nntaleb My take Permalink 4:57 AM – 11 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Probability Brain Teaser du Jour. cc:@mikeandallie ,@LorenzoWVilla , @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 4:27 AM – 11 Sep 2017

@SameeraKhan While we mourn the lives lost 16 yrs ago today, we should also remind ourselves of this gem. Stop funding, arming, & glorifying terrorists. Permalink 2:39 AM – 11 Sep 2017

@ThomasSowell Quote from Black Rednecks & White Liberals:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:03 AM – 10 Sep 2017

@nntaleb When the beard is black, take the reasoning, ignore conclusions. When gray, take both reasoning & conclusions. When white, just conclusions. Permalink 8:18 AM – 10 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Someone in population genetics wd detect the J2 haplogroup, the “Med” gene. I suspect the J2a subclade, coatal (Greco-Phoenician-Roman Army) Permalink 5:11 AM – 10 Sep 2017

@nntaleb My kind of party. Mare Nostrum.   Permalink 7:32 PM – 9 Sep 2017

@HarryDCrane Full slate for this year’s Foundations of #Probability seminar starting Mon with @nntaleb — Central problems with probability Permalink 9:32 AM – 9 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Above & below shd explain why recent paper on 1200+ genes determining intelligence is utter BS cc:@charlesmurray   Permalink 6:02 AM – 9 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Friends, added an Appendix to the minority rule. For comments. Is it easy to grasp? Permalink 5:31 AM – 9 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 6) You can do history but one needs to qualify conclusions & exclude some class of statements. Permalink 8:19 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 4) Historians have no clue about survivorship bias, so they mistake visible properties for properties. 5) Historians ignore asymmetries. Permalink 8:18 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Historians mistake an upper/lower bound for an absolute date. For instance “earliest settlement found” for earliest settlement” Permalink 7:53 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Practically all data prior to the first war are suspicious. Permalink 7:47 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb War data are pulled out of the hat. Historians are only reliable for (some) anecdotes. Or as we saw with Mary Beard, good at bu***tting.   Permalink 7:14 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This fraudster Julie Gunlock starts from the basis that anti-GMO is anti-science. Not just clueless but dangerous.   Permalink 6:39 PM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No, wuss! It’s unethical.They will do it to others Select a random few(5) who made false claims,make their lives miserable for 1y Never stop   Permalink 6:30 PM – 7 Sep 2017

@NoArtInPolitics Headline sounds like something @nntaleb might say   Permalink 4:29 PM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Clear evidence of (statistical) bias Can be attributed to 1) NYT doctors up the list, 2) NYT overweighs cappuccino & latte bookstores.   Permalink 11:11 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mechanical skills matter less interpreted as Germans have no mechamical skills. In Fooled by Randomness: there is randomness -> itsallrandom Permalink 10:09 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb For a chief investment officer, Mark Yusko makes a 6-year old misinterpretation. Is this typical or an outlier?   Permalink 10:06 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@iMetaldog ex ancillary parts for proper engine functionality there are smaller # of moving part in EM v ICE tho not apple to apple comp to begin with! Permalink 9:30 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Expertise in roulette gambling requires much more probability than carpentry; Pop genetics require much more probability than biology! Permalink 7:22 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Announcement. For personal reasons, we had to move the Real World Risk 6 to November 13.   Permalink 6:52 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Have you visited a gas station “when power is down everywhere”?   Permalink 5:45 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Tesla is computer w/wheels,~5% of moving parts of BMW Mechanical expertise is archaic. I’ve rarely seen softw/hardware designed in Europe.   Permalink 5:14 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Show this to your journo friends (if any) to avoid @tracyalloway’s conflation of “criticism” & strawman deformation   Permalink 4:41 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@alacunha Have you tried this? Choquinhos com tinta. Baby sepia cooked in ink. Typical of algarve. You have to go there for the real deal Permalink 5:51 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This is real squid ink, tonight. Permalink 4:44 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Last thing we need to hear is French are Meds. They are Reverse-Meds. Only Meds in S. parts that spoke no French (Provencal, Nicois, etc.) Permalink 2:15 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb There is a discussion of taboos against mixing fish and cheese in Med. I am still confused.   Permalink 2:11 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb My kind of lecture.   Permalink 1:39 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No, no, no, no. Never, never any cheese on Med with fish products. You get deported from Sicily/Calabria (if you are lucky).   Permalink 1:27 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Those who believe clmate chnge is real Those who explain everything by CC Those for whom policies shdbe precautionary whether CC real or not Permalink 10:27 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 1-Occupations in which one is more dependent on opinion of colleagues than end users or axiomatic base (math) end up rotting. (#SummarySITG) Permalink 7:12 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 1-Occupations in which one is more dependent on opinion of colleagues than end users degrades. ex: journalism, bureaucr, (#SummarySITG) Permalink 7:06 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Zeus appreciated my sacrifices; is making my wish come true that MSM self-destructs. He invented @kurteichenwald to accelerate the process. Permalink 6:19 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@DemosKypros Istanbul pogroms against the Greeks – 6-7 September ’55 #Greece #Turkey #History   Permalink 6:03 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@HaroonChowdry We need clearer language to help distinguish. “Squid ink pasta” (i.e. squid ink in the pasta dough) vs. “pasta w/ squid ink sauce” Permalink 5:59 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Alert: This is fake squid ink (colored pasta). Real squid ink leaves stain marks on the dish.   Permalink 4:49 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Will @kurteichenwald’s climate change “math” also prove a Trump-Russian conspiracy as is; or does it need additional variables?   Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The whole point is that this is not “criticism”. Strawman is NOT criticism. Permalink 3:55 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@Wataizo This Eichenwald character better hope @nntaleb doesn’t get a hold of him   Permalink 1:12 PM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Certainly @tracyalloway needs a straightforward lesson on the difference between news and fake news.   Permalink 12:54 PM – 5 Sep 2017

@ArgaizR New paper @Cell_Metabolism. Beautiful example of anti-fragility. Volatility yields the best results! @nntaleb Permalink 11:12 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb How @tracyalloway rigs her vote   Permalink 7:52 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb There is more substance/rigor in every line of the INCERTO than what journo @tracyalloway has written all her life   Permalink 7:21 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb +Got rich FROM politics +Helped crony capitalism +… Permalink 6:46 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb +Gave Wall Street the largest bonus pool in history in 2010 +Fought Skin in the Game rules +Fueled Identity Politics +Fed the IYI class Permalink 6:44 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb +Helped AlQaeda/extinction of NE Christians +Tried to destroy federalism +Let IYI bureaucrats “nudge” citizens +Overall enemy of liberty   Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Which is why I am calling Ron Paul, “A Roman among Greeks”. (a Pun on dedication of TBS to Benoit Mandelbrot:”A Greek among Romans”) Permalink 5:53 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb For ergodicity and wealth, see this   Which is whatIwantedtotalktoyouabout Permalink 5:43 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb I am shuttling from Leb to NY for my Tuesday class. Today is my 1rst lecture on Fat Tails.   Permalink 5:01 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb “The Romans judged their political system by asking not whether it made sense but whether it worked.” The clear minded @holland_tom Permalink 4:27 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Some idiot (finance prof) was arguing “had Trump invested his inheritance in market…” No, investors != market!   Permalink 4:17 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No, do not join an NGO to save the world. Just take risks, start a business.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:32 AM – 4 Sep 2017

@nntaleb BS vendor @JeffDSachs tweeting to me a narrative betw. Houston flood & Texas climate policy. Economists have a severe difficulty with rigor. Permalink 5:52 AM – 4 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Connecting in an airport lounge in Morocco. Only way I get privacy on phone is speaking in Lebanese dialect. Nobody seems to understand it. Permalink 5:06 AM – 3 Sep 2017

@bjmdolal @nntaleb only person I can think of that this applies to.   Permalink 7:10 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This guy gets it. The value of the lawsuit is in the information you can get out of it. As with the Monsanto papers.   Permalink 4:02 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Meanwhile my fight ag the UK thought police: I keep insulting them; they tried & tried & tried & failed to stop me,   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:58 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Nothing sad about it. Lawsuits are the ONLY defense mechanism for the individual against powerful groups. Thank you, American legal system!   Permalink 3:39 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb You need tail events for the revelation of elementary properties. Visibly only the store knew that people didn’t eat vegan.   Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@AD_WHITMAN Roll your big a** down to Venezuela for a year. Come back and tell me how the #VenezuelaDiet (starving due to socialism) worked out for you. Permalink 10:22 AM – 2 Sep 2017

@VergilDen “Not everything happens for a reason but everything that survives, survives for a reason” NNT Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Exccccccccellent question. Lindy being a noise filtering mechanism lowers every year the probability of spurious survival.   Permalink 8:52 AM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb People were not getting that the (alleged) food costs savings by GMOs (at huge risks) were DWARFED by more efficient food distribution. Permalink 7:39 PM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Bezos got that distrib =up to 83% food costs. Focus on distr, not risky “tech” product. Organic cheaper, GMO dead.   Permalink 7:32 PM – 1 Sep 2017

@GuruAnaerobic “No BS Trader” @nntaleb vs IYI academic, BBC luvvie, “diversity”, imbecillo-bullshito-classico Permalink 8:04 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Friday Semitic Philology. RE @lsarsour: Sarsour means “pimp” in mod. Hebrew frm Aramaic סַרְסוּר (with a Samekh), Cricket with a Tsadeh. Permalink 7:16 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb When someone makes an announcement saying “I have a great relationship with my wife”, you know a divorce is getting close.   Permalink 6:50 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Sarsour means cockroach in Arabic. It is very, very unfair to cockroaches.   Permalink 5:22 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@normonics Classic @nntaleb Permalink 6:26 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb We think alike on this @rorysutherland Permalink 6:16 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I like to buy products made by egomaniac people. Or, at least people called arrogant. Permalink 6:11 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 13 Coffee Shops Around Phoenicia That Will Charm You   via @BeirutCityGuide Permalink 4:58 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Some marketing/framing savvy pple figured out that the most effective way to build a fascist movement is to call it: antifascist. Permalink 1:08 AM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Problem w/academic parasites isn’t just disconnect from the real world; it’s their lack of awareness of it. #SkinInTheGame   Permalink 12:48 AM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Now if I called Monbiot an idiot, it is because of his promoting AlQaeda propaganda abt the Syrian war & fake stories abt Aleppo. Permalink 8:35 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb My idea is to WORRY about our actions on climate out of PRECAUTION, not systematically attribute events to it. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 6:31 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb From Silent Risk: the Lucretius problem. People don’t realize that systems deliver new maxima. Permalink 5:48 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Point is that idiots like @GeorgeMonbiot are attributing Houston floods to Climate Change, rather than bad understanding of tail probability Permalink 4:59 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Think tanks are natural lobbies w/a facade of “research” Their cover allows them to censor dissent from monoculture   Permalink 4:43 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nero di seppia ( spaghetti con farro) Permalink 5:39 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Chapters frm nxt book If the author doesn’t surprise the reader w/something every few pages, books & authors die   Permalink 3:28 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb When people talk about 500 y floods or 100 year rain, they are klueless abt tail distribution. The empirical distribution is NOT empirical! Permalink 1:40 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I have never read #Antifragile under olive trees. I will try next week.   Permalink 12:31 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Another benefit of Brexit seen 5 years ago in Antifragile   Permalink 11:35 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb No, and it is not a violation of the First Am. if I block people like you who tweet stupid things to me; private workspace != public. Permalink 6:54 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Freedom of Expression is a central UNCONDITIONAL symmetry: You are allowed speech if I am allowed speech Permalink 6:18 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Main MARKER for group to be fascist-shmascist-smthng_ist regardless of what they call themselves left/right/diagonal: Public Expression Permalink 5:51 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The very idea of freedom of expression is to allow someone to tell others things they do not like to hear. Permalink 5:24 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words, see the surviving population after n generations, here 21 & compare to common processes. Permalink 6:15 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Trying to dabble w/population genetics under fat tails! So far, some intuitions. Some work for us, @DrCirillo cc: @PZalloua Permalink 6:12 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Free speech is so robust intellectually that arguments to try to suspend it are inconsistent w/one another & the rest of the corpus.   Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb E bella la lingua italiana: “Chi troppo in alto sal cade sovente precipitevolissimevolmente” Permalink 12:51 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Letting someone w a razor is a sign of trust. Permalink 7:09 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Kalabrez’ lesson facima a barba curazol’ Permalink 7:07 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This problem came out of the statement (as generalization) that: P/E ratio of the market != weighted average P/E ratio of ind companies.   Permalink 5:43 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Journalist Interrogated, Fired For Story Linking CIA And Syria Weapons Flights | Zero Hedge   Permalink 5:23 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “…nec alte cadere nec graviter potest” Publilius Permalink 5:20 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you want to punish an enemy, help put him on a pedestal. He will hurt himself falling from it. Permalink 4:57 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@JohnJSSoriano .@nntaleb has explained this well. Can’t make projection of worst case based on previous worst event. Wouldn’t have worked for prev event!   Permalink 7:05 PM – 27 Aug 2017

@nntaleb   Permalink 2:37 PM – 27 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Added to The Logic of Risk Taking. People w skin in the game who take risks don’t like tail risk.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:35 AM – 27 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Explains that such probability-risk experiments assume the person will never take risks again.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:17 PM – 26 Aug 2017

@obradovits1 @nntaleb ‘s def of ergodicity is consistent with what I lrnt during my pstgrad stdies. However, @nntaleb provides a new way to thnk. abt it.   Permalink 11:31 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This imbecile is digging deeper, using a …1928 def. Mr Ma cKenzie go back to doing what you do and let other people on twitter work. Permalink 11:11 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The sign of a failed academic is referring to his “thesis” as contribution. Perhaps @ole_b_peters can answer you what is meant by ergodicity Permalink 10:22 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@ole_b_peters Spot-on. Meaningless experiments. Insurance benefits buyer and seller over time, not across the ensemble.   Permalink 9:58 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In which a Microsoft person bull***ts abt work he never read & concepts he knows nothing abt.   Permalink 9:52 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes. (Cutting through the BS in social science) Permalink 9:01 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words: risk aversion is what is needed to make things ergodic.   Permalink 8:55 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “Risk Aversion” is fictional nonsense to employ psychologists.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 8:54 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb LOCALISM “At Fed level, libertarian; state, Republican; local, Democrat; family/friends, socialist.” @geoffreydgraham citing broth. Vincent. Permalink 8:06 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@mikeandallie A algebra / geometry project for kids inspired by @nntaleb and @CutTheKnotMath :   #math #mathchat cc: @KelseyAHE Permalink 6:21 AM – 26 Aug 2017

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