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Piketty, Schmugman, Qatar, Dawkins, British Airways, Saudi Arabia | Twitter

@LorenzoWVilla Very nice ‘probability’ problem from @CutTheKnotMath (  ): see below @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:50 AM – 12 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In other words, methods used to state that people & investors underestimate tail events by psychologists and economists are severely flawed.   Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The empirical distribution is … not empirical   via @YouTube Permalink 4:29 AM – 12 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Same problem as Fooled by Randomness & Big Data fitting. The degrees of freedom from man -> crime >> those from crime -> man. (corrected)   Permalink 6:32 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@jtynen Taleb is right and shows where we went wrong.. USA was supposed to be 50 … … states! Not 50 provinces or admin. districts … states!   Permalink 6:28 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Science isn’t what’s right/wrong. It is what you can backup using a certain method. Applying science outside is “scientism”, a fraud. #GMOs Permalink 2:33 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb A scaling property: the larger the state, the more disproportionately powerful the state-within-the-state (a.k.a. deep state). Permalink 12:47 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The sucker overestimates the value of secret information when the important stuff is that huge elephant in front if us all. Permalink 12:25 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling: you give with noise, you take quietly.   Permalink 10:01 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In 19th C converting was not punishable by death: many politicians took the religion of their constituents (Shehabs, Hashem, etc.) Permalink 4:58 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb 150 y ago protestant missionaries started ~AUB in Beirut. They converted exactly 0 Sunnis, only Greek-Orth pple. Preaching does not work. Permalink 4:28 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb This technical is an appendix for a more general dynamic approach to inequality   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Polishing a Gini paper… Why Piketty & Schmugman estimations of inequality are fundamentally flawed. Kapish?   Permalink 3:55 PM – 10 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Fractal planting patterns yield optimal harvests, without central control   via @physorg_com Permalink 10:11 AM – 10 Jun 2017

@nntaleb A large element of the Syrian war is geopolitics (SaudiBarbaria Qatar, US State Dept). That part may be gone.   Permalink 9:37 AM – 10 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Indeed, Twitter reveals the person. I have always had mild contempt for “intellectuals”.I now despise them as default, unless proven othrwse   Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Jun 2017

@Cernovich No “skin in the game,” as @nntaleb would say. There’s no penalty for being wrong, no job loss, no risk. Must be nice.   Permalink 3:16 PM – 9 Jun 2017

@dhavalpanchal “Tinkering is better than Pinckering” -d5 #realworldrisk- w/ @nntaleb & Raphael -title & errors fully owned. Permalink 10:19 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@LorenzoWVilla @nntaleb Here we go with a functional equation: proof is needed! :) Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@IntheNow_tweet Saudi Arabia ditching Qatar over terrorism is like McDonalds accusing Burger King of selling junk food @AnissaNow Permalink 8:00 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Philology du jour: Livanos in Greek (frankincense) comes from olibanum, from Hebrew: לבונה [levona] => the white. Permalink 3:33 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@MaxAbrahms No, that’s been clear for a really long time, as I’ve been saying for a really long time.   Permalink 2:13 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@nntaleb j2 Caucasus-> Anatolia-> Levant-> Etruscan-> Graeco-Mediterranean Except for Levant Indo-European linguistically   Permalink 5:37 PM – 8 Jun 2017

@nntaleb J2 statisticallt, the Roman army gene   Permalink 4:34 PM – 8 Jun 2017

@nntaleb What weakened the mafia was internecine fighting. Mobs always fight.   Permalink 9:21 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb @VergilDen Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb If someone’s insults’ bother you; it is evidence that you respect him. Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb RWRI day 3. 55 participants. Raphael will start confusing them with poly probability models. Permalink 6:05 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The true story about Qatar is money when badly needed: They have a tiny fraction of the population of KSA with ~same financial reserves. Permalink 5:32 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb It is impressive how Trump hatred can make some people like @KenRoth rational, realistic, & lucid.   Permalink 4:55 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@dhavalpanchal Lindy effect and implications to technology – day 2 sketch notes /real world risk w/ @nntaleb/ – all errors r mine. Permalink 9:06 PM – 6 Jun 2017

@nntaleb IYI Dawkins doesn’t get that your bathroom is not trying to kill you. We need a filter for “intellectuals”.   Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@dhavalpanchal Kickass start to day 2 of – real world risk institute – w/ @nntaleb – all mistakes r mine. Permalink 7:02 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@edsanin “The best virtue requires courage; accordingly it needs to be unpopular”   Go read anything from @nntaleb Permalink 5:50 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@holland_tom Although Roman history does suggest that crucifying them along major trunk roads might work as a deterrent…   Permalink 4:56 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@GhassanDahhan I wonder why all the Qatari funded MENA experts have been so quiet since yesterday. They’re independent non-partisan analysts, no? Permalink 4:56 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The most shocking thing about Donald Trump’s Sadiq Khan tweet? He’s right   Permalink 4:08 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@nntaleb You are either deluded or a liar. Show me which probability class taught subexponential/fat tails 15 y ago. Likely to be both! Permalink 2:37 PM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb This Mooc explains why most “rational number crunching” abt terrorism is BS. Terrorism is REAL risk.   Permalink 8:00 AM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Probability du jour: a crisp demarcation betw thin and fat tails via max entropy. Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb You don’t cure terror w/police; you reduce terror by NOT creating monsters, supporting Alqaeda in Syria/Libya & Wahabis in SaudiBarbaria   Permalink 4:24 AM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Many “moderates” are closet Sunni Salafi defenders. They find a way to mitigate events. Despicable scum, this @OmairTAhmad   Permalink 7:41 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@anonchickenshit The internet allowed impolite but extremely logical intellectuals to find each other and remake the world. 1/x Permalink 7:17 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb To my friends in the UK, some understanding of the minority rule in the midst of all this media BS could help.   Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Engaging with math on twitter causes unfollows; minimizes the intersection betw my followers & those of BS vendors s.a. @neiltyson .   Permalink 6:06 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The best explanation of the British Airways debacle by Gene Callahan. #Antifragile Permalink 4:59 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The fellow is a Shiite cleric. He is not an exception: they all say the same thing. They are the ones who suffered the most from Salafism.   Permalink 4:05 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb False analogy: Irish wanted specific point. Salafis want to destroy you and your civilization.   Permalink 3:57 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb “If you want people to read a book, tell them it is overrated”. (Bed of Procrustes)   Permalink 10:49 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@trishankkarthik Taking an @nntaleb aphorism from BoP: the more the fake left tries to ignore race / gender / etc., the more they are obsessed by it. Permalink 8:34 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The reason genetic distance A⇿B shd not be symmetric (as is diff entropy): How much info to make a Frenchman out of a Greek ≠ Reverse Permalink 6:49 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@nntaleb ISIS out of Raqqa will go twrds Saudi Arabia. I do not wish to destabilise SA. Just make them stop spreading of Salafism.   Permalink 5:39 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it. Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The shill is trying to make pple believe that either the Pope (or the Catholic author) is a “Hizbollah guy”. Might work in SaudiBarbaria…   Permalink 12:40 PM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Even @ForeignAffairs now realizes Saudi Arabia is evil hidden under a facade of diplomacy.   Permalink 12:33 PM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The most pleasant phase is when the book suddenly starts to look like a book. You hold the MS as one & smooth it out Permalink 9:04 AM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Monsanto is doing the same scheme over here with other products, fooling the media & demonizing skeptics. Delenda Monsanto.   Permalink 6:58 AM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In other words EVERY recipient of information has been historically a CONVEYER. Twitter reestablished #LindyEffect   Permalink 3:51 AM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Some good news. Papers are not Lindy. Info shd be 2-way as per social media, not controlled by monocultured group.   Permalink 3:42 AM – 2 Jun 2017

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