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Monthly Archives: March 2017

Of Black Swans and Intellectual Fallacies | ZEE Jaipur Literature Festival 2017

Published on Jan 22, 2017 Nassim Nicholas Taleb introduced by David McWilliams

The Facts are True, the News is Fake | Medium

The Facts are True, the News is Fake How to Disagree with Yourself The Ethics of Disagreement Now let us get deeper into the application of the Silver Rule in intellectual debates. You can criticize either what a person said or what the person meant. The former is more sensational, hence lends itself more readily […]

Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others | Medium

Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others The salesman is the boss — How to drink poison — Advertising and manipulation Very few people understand their own choices, and end up being manipulated by those who want to sell them something. In that sense, impoverishment might be something desirable. Looking at Saudi Arabia which should progressively revert to […]

Economists, Fake News, Turkish Lira, IQ, MY Planet, Kapish, Grandmothers, Neo-Stalinism, Umberto Eco’s Library | Twitter

@nntaleb Terms for the heinous s.a. “Nazi”,”racist”,”Hitler” get debased/corrupted over time,similar to the historical debasement of coins/currencies Permalink 12:35 PM – 13 Mar 2017 @nntaleb Added paragraph on how in Mediterranean news circulates through gatherings: mostly funerals.   Permalink 7:56 AM – 13 Mar 2017 @nntaleb I will from now on call economists “the wrongest […]

Continuous Time Election Forecasting | Youtube

Published on Feb 27, 2017 Uses a continuous time process to price an election; we end up with an option-stule pricing. The martigale approach optimizes the Brier score. The corresponding paper is here: How to Predict an Election (pdf)