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Monthly Archives: April 2016

Psychology, Noah Smith, Kapish?, Saudi Barbaria, Bernie, Ottomans, Yugo, Lebanon | Twitter

@MaxAbrahms The problem isn’t that Hillary makes foreign policy mistakes, but that she makes the same mistake over & over again:https://twitter.com/capreble/status/723849697245442048   Permalink 5:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016 @nntaleb بمالطه بيكتبوا لغه ساميه بالحرف اللاتيني @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink 11:47 AM – 23 Apr 2016 @nntaleb La2. Sa3iid 3akl kan ma7sour billebnene. Ana bilshami (ye3n3 […]

Tail Probabilities, Ahiqar the Aramaean | Facebook

Finally put my finger on what is wrong with the common belief in psychological findings that people “irrationally” overestimate tail probabilities, calling it a “bias”. Simply, these experimenters assume that people make a single decision in their lifetime! The entire field of psychology of decisions missed the point.* If you take the risk –any risk […]

Everyone Worries Too Much About ‘Black Swans’

Relax. They really are pretty rare. In other words, Taleb might be wrong — people might be overestimating, rather than underestimating, the risk of market crashes. Some recent survey evidence indicates that this might be true. William Goetzmann, Dasol Kim and the Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller looked at 26 years of survey data, and found […]

Stewart Brand, Stony Brook, Arnold Kling, Zika, GMOs, Mean Deviation, Ahiqar, Fat Tony, The Next Subprime

@nntaleb GMO: @stewartbrand & @mark_lynas are sub-clueless about risk, science… Our latest @mosicr https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Precautionary%20Principle%20Papers.pdf  pic.twitter.com/qUIvEc2RJD Permalink 6:19 PM – 14 Apr 2016 @nntaleb “With animals you make up quality w/quantity; a good human is superior to a thousand” @GhassanDahhan #minorityrulepic.twitter.com/8C0QmlV1hs Permalink 6:11 PM – 14 Apr 2016 @nntaleb – “Mr T., can you read an […]

The Secret of Fatima

The Secret of Fatima 5.0 out of 5 stars James Bond as a Catholic Priest, April 5, 2016 Review By N N Taleb This review is from: The Secret of Fatima (Kindle Edition) Masterly! This is the page turner par excellence; every new page brings some surprise and it was impossible for me to put […]