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Monthly Archives: March 2014

General Principle: the solutions…

General Principle: the solutions (on balance) need to be simpler than the problems. (Otherwise the system collapses under its complexity). via General Principle: the solutions (on balance)… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

GREED-PROOF NOT GREED-FREE

GREED-PROOF NOT GREED-FREE: Two millennia ago, Sallust wrote the following: “When I was a callow young man, I plunged enthusiastically into public life. Instead of modesty, brazenness flourished; instead of self-restraint, bribery; instead of merit, avarice (…)my youthful weakness was corrupted and gripped by ambition. Although I refrained from the wicked ways of the rest, […]

The idea of multiple counterfactuals…

The idea of multiple counterfactuals:When you imagine future outcomes, you change one variable not many together. If you did, you’d have surprises.http://edge.org/conversation/on-kahneman#25630ON KAHNEMAN | Edge.orgTo arrive at the edge of the world’s knowledge, seek out the most complex and sophisticated minds, put them in a room together, and have them ask each other the questions […]

Finally, here is a mathematical proof that the “heuristics” used by traders…

Finally, here is a mathematical proof that the “heuristics” used by traders and derived bottom-up are both more robust and more rigorous (mathematically) than the pseudomathematics used by economists. The best way to beat economists is to be more rigorous mathematically than they are, not discard the math. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/OptionPricing.pdf via Finally, here is a mathematical […]

Note 154 on prediction markets…

Note 154 on prediction markets, and more generally academic BS, and my argument with one of the proponents.Please don’t comment on prediction markets unless you have either read the paper of watched the video.http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm via Note 154 on prediction markets, and more… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.