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Monthly Archives: December 2012

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: A thinker with an antifragile ego

Before The Black Swan was published, Taleb had been a prophet without honour in the United States. “I knew before the crash that the system was going to blow up. In 2003, I went to the New York Times and said, ‘Fannie Mae [the Federal National Mortgage Association] is sitting on dynamite with taxpayers’ money. […]

A mutually beneficial transaction…

A mutually beneficial transaction is rarely presented as “mutually beneficial transaction”, rather just as a transaction. I am even more suspicious when someone benefiting from it insists on explaining why it is in my “best interest”.(adapting aphorism) via A mutually… | Facebook.

Friends, this is for comments and help…

Friends, this is for comments and help. The philosopher Rupert Read and I are proposing a “conditional” precautionary principle, that is, fragility-based. Thanks in advance for comments.www.fooledbyrandomness.com/precautionary.pdf via Friends, this is… | Facebook.

Now my turn to play with the press: is Michiko Kakutani incompetent or just crazy?

Now my turn to play with the press: is Michiko Kakutani incompetent or just crazy? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/mishiko.htm Mathematics of Black Swans“And some of his observations are just willfully perverse He suggests, for instance, that administering mammograms to “women over 40 on an annual basis does not lead to an increase in life expectancy,” because a doctor, […]

Correcting Myths: Phony is OK, Harmful Phony is the one to watch for.

Correcting Myths: Phony is OK, Harmful Phony is the one to watch for. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/myths.htm – Golden rule: one is not ethically allowed to tells others what to do unless he is doing it himself, and can suffer harm in case it turns out to be a bad advice. Predictors should be harmed by their prediction […]