Monthly Archives: September 2012

My nightmare when I started my adult life was…

My nightmare when I started my adult life was the image of a committee of middle-aged and older men sitting around a conference table and quietly “deliberating”, in a composed way, then “judging” a junior person whose fate depends on them. The “judgment” could have been anything, ranging from a job assessment or promotion, a bonus, a disciplinary action, the granting of a doctorate, the hiring of a candidate, the publication of a book.The person is nervously waiting outside the room, waiting to be called in. Or, worse, he is at home checking the phone.. I could imagine no worse condition than this FRAGILITY, the helplessness of the person being judged by people one was certain to be faux-experts, or depending on a lottery, or facing an outcome that made a huge difference, good or bad without one’s ability to control it. And rank makes things worse: I vividly remember my grandfather, then minister, waiting by the phone for the formation of the new cabinet; he wanted the position very badly, was completely dependent on it, kept discussing the odds the outcome was that he lost his position in the reshuffle… I also remember the vice chairman of an investment firm nervously pacing while expecting a phone call…

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Just as when you mix pure and impure material…

Just as when you mix pure and impure material, the result is impure, uncertainty can contaminate certainty but never the other way around. When you multiply an uncertain variable by a certain number, the result is uncertain and not certain. If the multiplier is >1, the result is even more uncertain this is leverage, which compounds uncertainty.So if you are told that a result is deterministic, say by theorem, but the person saying has a small probability of having made a mistake, the result will no longer be deterministic, but random.

(Cont, More technical) Unlike with water where bad elements get eventually diluted away, and where you can reach acceptable purity, if you add to N “well behaved” random variables (Mediocristan) a single “Extremely wild” one (super-Extremistan), the total sum will be “Extremely wild”, no matter how large the N or how well behaved the other random variables.
(The wild can be a single Cauchy-distributed random variable or anything with a tail exponent <=1).

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A trivial and potent heuristic to figure out success…

A trivial and potent heuristic to figure out success: a) you are absolutely successful if and only if you don’t envy anyone; b) quite successful if those you envy you don’t know in person; c) miserably unsuccessful if those you envy you encounter or think about daily.

Absolute success is mostly found among ascetic persons.

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