…It was so obvious that Shaiy summarized it in the same breath. He actually believes that all real ideas can be distilled down to a central issue that the majority of people in a field, by dint of specialization and emptysuitedness, completely miss. Everything in religion come down to applications and interpretations of “don’t do [...]
NOTEBOOK OPACITY, Note 149 Why Is Fragility in the NonlinearI- There have been works on the link between risk and nonlinearity initially by Arrow and Pratt, then followed by a collection of authors such as Rothchild, Stiglitz, Machina, and others. These fellows were not option traders; their work was mistakenly focused on nonlinearity of preferences [...]
DE INCERTO Friends, now looking again for a title, as I am fusing all my books in a single opus (1,AF;3,FBR; 4,TBS;5,BoP) under the principle that the chapters in a given volume should relate to another in another volume as if they were part of the same book. And the collection could be accessed in [...]
Philosophers make things complicated while claiming to be simplifying them; people in practice simplify things while claiming to make them more complicated. via Philosophers make… | Facebook.
Second principle of iatrogenics: it is not linear. I do not believe that we should take risks with near-healthy people; I also believe that we should take a lot, a lot more risks with those deemed in danger. Why do we need to focus treatment on more serious cases, not marginal ones? Take this example [...]
Dave Lull sent this link in. I like Tyler Cowen. He’s a smart cookie. I know him from various interviews over at EconTalk. I always wondered what he looked like, as he has an oddish way of speaking.I would hazard to guess, based on this video, that he hasn’t spent a lot of time with [...]
TO AGE IN REVERSE (time, fragility, etc.) Time to get more technical, so a distinction is helpful at this stage. Let us separate the perishable (humans, single items) from the nonperishable, the potentially perennial. The nonperishable is anything does not have an organic unavoidable expiration date. The perishable is typically an object, the nonperishable has [...]
The pathology of Big Data: the more variables, the DISPROPORTIONATELY higher the number of spurious results that appear “statistically significant”. For a real-life application see this busted article in The N E Journal of Medicine www.fooledbyrandomness.com/NEJM.pdf via Wall Photos | Facebook.
While we’ll have to wait for the release of the book to read about Antifragility in detail, Taleb’s prologue says something very interesting about the prevalence of fragility in the world today. Here’s what he writes: While in the past people of rank or status were those and only those who took risks, had the [...]
Just noticed this live pdf link on NNT’s homepage. Not sure if it’s new, but I didn’t have it. As you know, these pdf links frequently disappear so… A simpler, more intuitive method of detection
The more abundant and complex the statistical data and methods used in support of a conclusion, the weaker the result. Just as in a detective novel where the person with the more elaborate alibi is most likely to be guilty. Hard results in science rest on minimal, if any, statistics. via The more abundant… | [...]
In any activity, there is a thin line between breadth of diversification or exposure, and downright promiscuity. via In any activity,… | Facebook.
John Brockman’s Edge.org is a fantastic resource for anyone interested in the cutting edge of science, technology or culture. NNT’s profile page includes a couple of videos you may not have seen. Edge.org : People Nassim Nicholas Taleb Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, NYU-Poly; Author, The Black Swan NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB is a former derivatives [...]
People use words for small talk and background noise; the big things they mostly express with silence. via People use words… | Facebook.
Could the markets be setting up for another “Black Swan” event and can anti-fragility be brought into global financial systems? BNN asks Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan.” Click link or photo to launch video.http://www.bnnprodown.com.edgesuite.net/2012/05/30/20120530_TC_NT.mp4Or http://m.bnn.ca/article?itemId=689374&feedId=444HatTip to Trevor!
Taleb is listed rather prominently on the Universa Website and Spitznagel graciously credits Taleb in the paper, but Taleb and/or Spitznagel have put a fork in the archetypal Black Swan theory (and yet, Taleb has never been really consistent, so one can say he meant this all along at some level). I have no doubt [...]
Just a reminder that NNT publishes his technical papers and makes them available for download (for personal use) for free. and Backup Material for The Uncertainty Collection (Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness,The Bed of Procrustes) -complete 300+ pp. book freely available (includes sections from doctoral thesis)
LESS IS MORE I discovered that I had been intuitively using the less-is-more as aid in decision-making (contrary to the method of putting a series of pro-con side by side on a computer screen). For instance, if you have more than one reason to do something (choose a doctor or veterinarian, hire a gardener or [...]
To my surprise, Taleb emailed me back a link to a PDF of a draft of a chapter of his new book. If you’re used to Strunk and White-style economy in prose I’ll warn you to focus on the ideas and ignore Taleb’s intentionally ? meandering style. Taleb emphasizes using stressors to make sure something [...]
Narrative knowledge contra Stochastic Tinkering (based on comments by Y Zilber) via Wall Photos | Facebook.
Friends I wonder if this is clear TECHNICAL APPENDIX: HOW TO DETECT WHO WILL GO BUSTNext, let us examine a method of detection of fragility. We can illustrate it with the story of the giant government sponsored lending firm called Fannie Mae, a corporation that collapsed, leaving the United States Taxpayer with hundreds of billions [...]
The first step to reach intelligence is figuring out what can be controlled. The second step is figuring out what should be controlled. via The first step to… | Facebook.
Nonludic Examination at the School of Antifragile: 1 You have no idea what the test is about, 2 The questions are very imprecise, 3 You don’t know how long you will have to finish it and accordingly, need a strategy, 4 The general subject matter is not defined, 5 You never know when the test [...]
The elephant in the room is that if academic social “science” never existed (political “science”, economics, sociology, psychology) the world would be at the worst no different, and possibly a much better place. via The elephant in the… | Facebook.
Last week, Horizons Exchange Traded Funds launched two Exchange Traded Funds based on Black Swan basics. Mr. Taleb serves as a distinguished scientific advisor for Universa, the managers of the two funds. The funds are designed to protect investors against Black Swan events that will impact the S&P 500 Index and the TSX 60 Index. [...]
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