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Monthly Archives: May 2012

Friend, my central point…

But the average of the function is as follows. Take the square of every payoff, 1^2+2^2+3^2+4^2+5^2+6^2 divided by 6, that is the average square payoff, and you get 15.67. So, since squaring is a convex function, the average of a square payoff is higher than the square of the average payoff. The difference, here between […]

Nassim Taleb Responds To Bloomberg Article – Business Insider

Apparently the NNT quotes Bloomberg posted earlier today (and to which I posted a link) were taken out of context and NNT isn’t too happy about it. So why is Taleb so furious? Basically he says he wasn’t giving investment advice at all, and that he was giving an hour-long lecture on anti-fragility and risk, […]

Noise and Signal — Nassim Taleb | Farnam Street

The more frequently you look at data, the more noise you are disproportionally likely to get (rather than the valuable part called the signal); hence the higher the noise to signal ratio. And there is a confusion, that is not psychological at all, but inherent in the data itself. Say you look at information on […]

Hay Festival – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

NNT and Danny Kahneman are at the Hay Festival (UK) this weekend! Nassim Nicholas Taleb Event 117 • Sunday 3 June 2012, 4pm • Venue: Llwyfan Cymru – Wales Stage AntiFragility The visionary probability guru and Black Swan author previews his study of How to Live in a World We Don’t Understand. Price: £6.25 Sponsored […]

Taleb Says Euro Breakup ‘Not a Big Deal’ as U.S. Scariest – Businessweek

A breakup of the euro “is not a big deal,” Taleb said yesterday at an event in Montreal hosted by the Alternative Investment Management Association. “When they break it up, there will be a lot of fun currencies. This is why I am not afraid of Europe, or investing in Europe. I’m afraid of the […]