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Edvin David Lemus: Essays, blogs

Longtime reader and tipster David Lemus has a new book out.
Here’s a quote:

“So the statistics presented as the bell curve can at most work in one world. What polemic philosopher Nassim N. Taleb has called Mediocristan and Extremistan, the former domain is where statistics can be apply to physical measurements with miniscule margin of error like, say, astronomy, while the latter the bell curve breaks and shatters, the scientific tool cannot handle information data commonly acquire in social sciences. Too many stochastic variables, too many fat tails, and, furthermore, error rates, nonlinearties, dispersions: what Taleb named Fragile and the opposite his appellation Anti-Fragile; and improbable, consequential and explained by narrative, events, which cannot be predicted, I.e., Black Swans completely demolishes the statistical model; although they can be mitigated to a point by using robust heuristics as Mr. Taleb himself has suggested.”

 

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