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Monthly Archives: June 2011

Municipal Volatility (please ignore typos)

Municipal Volatility (please ignore typos)http://fooledbyrandomness.com/ch.pdfhttp://fooledbyrandomness.com/ch.pdffooledbyrandomness.com

When Antifragile Systems are Deprived of Volatility

When Antifragile Systems are Deprived of VolatilityWall Photos

Nassim Taleb | Flickr – Photo Sharing!

Shared by JohnH

World Business Forum, Buenos Aires, Hotel Hilton.Photo By (Flickr) morrissey

Black Swan Author Taleb: Greece is ‘Peanuts,’ the U.S. a ‘Time Bomb’ – MarketBeat – WSJ

“Greece’s economic ills are a trivial menace to the global economy compared with the much graver threat posed by a heavily-indebted and seemingly immobile U.S. government, author Nassim Taleb said Monday. ‘There is a serious problem in the U.S.,

Neomania & architecture

Neomania & architectureWall Photos

Not only, against neophilia, it is the oldest and most archaic practices, habits, and methods that -conditional on having survived – should last the longest; but the most unexplainable and irrational ones will do best. The more unexplainable, the more robust. The irrational is indestructible. [All comments that do not get the "conditional on having survived" will be deleted. Hint: robustness and Lindy effects.]

Not only, against neophilia, it is the oldest and most archaic practices, habits, and methods that -conditional on having survived – should last the longest; but the most unexplainable and irrational ones will do best. The more unexplainable, the more…

Three categories of people: those who live hand to mouth; those who worry about something other than the next meal; and those who do not understand the difference.

Three categories of people: those who live hand to mouth; those who worry about something other than the next meal; and those who do not understand the difference.

The most interesting and rewarding actions are the ones with the smallest amount of justification.

The most interesting and rewarding actions are the ones with the smallest amount of justification.

Manual laborers seem happier with a ham and cheese baguette than businessmen with a Michelin 3 star meal.

Manual laborers seem happier with a ham and cheese baguette than businessmen with a Michelin 3 star meal.

The point is that people would have a nice hidden garden even if nobody visited it (a riad a closed, cloistered garden, like DSK's); but would they drive a very expensive sportscar in NYC if nobody watched them? (it is beyond Veblen, status, etc., but about modernistic v/s natural objects)

The point is that people would have a nice hidden garden even if nobody visited it (a riad a closed, cloistered garden, like DSK’s); but would they drive a very expensive sportscar in NYC if nobody watched them? (it is beyond Veblen, status, etc., but …

I wonder how many people would drive sports cars if nobody watched them.

I wonder how many people would drive sports cars if nobody watched them.

Everything is convexity effects. Explained it in chapter 2. Hope it is clear in this language.

Everything is convexity effects. Explained it in chapter 2. Hope it is clear in this language.www.fooledbyrandomness.com/convexityeffects.pdfhttp://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/convexityeffects.pdfwww.fooledbyrandomness.com

For the weak, envy (professional, financial, etc.) is the root cause of unhappiness. As it is impossible to transform it into indifference the only cure is to turn it into admiration.

For the weak, envy (professional, financial, etc.) is the root cause of unhappiness. As it is impossible to transform it into indifference the only cure is to turn it into admiration.

Nassim Taleb Papers – Recent Revisions

Nassim Taleb’s scholarly papers are hosted at SSRN and are free to download.

Protect Your Tail Page 2 of 2 – Forbes.com

In July Universa intends to tap the financial adviser market by offering its own black swan ETF. The fund will mimic some of the strategies employed by its institutional-only hedge fund and will have an expense ratio of 1.5%.Will Universa be able to re…

Meet Mark Spitznagel: The Hedge Fund Manager Betting $6 Billion On A Doomsday Scenario – Yahoo! Finance

On roughly 95 trades out of 100 they lose money… Spitznagel is unruffled as he sits in his office listening to classical music and losing money each day. He is ready and waiting for the next black swan to arrive. Spitznagel is pretty young to be so…

Most people think that democracy is the result of people wishing to take control through voting; nobody considers that democracy can just be the side effect of people liking to vote in elections.

Most people think that democracy is the result of people wishing to take control through voting; nobody considers that democracy can just be the side effect of people liking to vote in elections.

Dear Hindi and Farsi speaking friends (and other philologists): Red Beet is called Shmandar in Arabic; just wonder if root is Hindi Shaminder godlike princess; also wonder if connection Shaminder to Salamander.

Dear Hindi and Farsi speaking friends (and other philologists): Red Beet is called Shmandar in Arabic; just wonder if root is Hindi Shaminder godlike princess; also wonder if connection Shaminder to Salamander.

This is a little technical, but it is necessary

This is a little technical, but it is necessary :www.fooledbyrandomness.com/Heuristic.pdfhttp://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/Heuristic.pdfwww.fooledbyrandomness.com

Action Bias

Action Bias

The difference between doxa and knowledge.

The difference between doxa and knowledge.

The prophet is not necessarily one with a view nobody had before; he is the one who was first to believe it.

The prophet is not necessarily one with a view nobody had before; he is the one who was first to believe it.

(add: feeling honorable, etc.)

(add: feeling honorable, etc.)

If wealth is: worry-less sleeping, clear conscience, reciprocal gratitude, absence of envy, good appetite, muscle strength, frequent laughs, no meals alone, no gym class, some physical labor/hobby, good bowel movements, no meeting rooms, periodic surprises, no NYT, then it is largely subtractive (elimination of iatrogenics). It may seem bland but I see more of it in economy class than in front of the plane.

If wealth is: worry-less sleeping, clear conscience, reciprocal gratitude, absence of envy, good appetite, muscle strength, frequent laughs, no meals alone, no gym class, some physical labor/hobby, good bowel movements, no meeting rooms, periodic surpr…

The Hidden Chapter -Do Not Read This

Shared by JohnH

Hmm, at the very least, an interesting Idea.
The third and why your reading this, was ‘The Black Swan’ by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, which I acquired, true to form, totally randomly, from an Italian book store in a small town. Is it true…