The only genuine scientist is the one who doesn’t know he is a scientist.
Other people’s kings, like other people’s children, look ridiculous.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
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Post also quotes Rick Bookstaber who uses a biological metaphor – survival over time – in weighing investment strategies.
This train of thought was jogged by a Wharton discussion with Nassim Taleb on fragility and over-optimization (…
Mark Blyth, the co-author of NNT’s recent Foreign Affairs article, was interviewed by Christopher Lydon on Radio Open Source. Click arrow to play audio. Mark Blyth, The Black Swan of Cairo.
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Links to entire article which is available to non-subscribers until 6/13/11
Take, for example, the recent celebrated documentary on the financial crisis, Inside Job, which blames the crisis on the malfeasance and dishonesty of banke…
I break with my rule & post here because the idea was developed on this page (ANTIFRAGILITY comes from regular shocks).
About to break Orthodox lent, 40 days without animal products (except for fish on a few select days). Makes you grasp 1) rebirth (beyond symbolism), 2) celebration without prior sacrifice is theft, 3) religion is about walking the walk, not this modern…
Solution to the AGENCY PROBLEM: Never get on a plane unless the person piloting it is also on board.Generalization: no-one should be allowed to declare war, make a prediction, express an opinion, publish an academic paper, manage a firm, treat a patien…
Over history, humans have gravitated around three poles, magic, religion, and science. Secretly, all they want is a disguised version of magic.
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“PAPER TO BE PRESENTED AT BENOIT MANDELBROT’S MEMORIAL Yale University, APRIL 29, 2011″ HatTip to Dave Lull
143 The error about the error (Fukushima, again)
Paper on the epistemology of error.
An error rate can be measured. The mea…
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Most of this article is behind a paywall right now. HatTip to Dave Lull.
Such environments eventually experience massive blowups, catching everyone off-guard and undoing years of stability or, in some cases, ending up far worse than …
WEB: I read the physical NYT (first time in years). Was invaded by the philistinism of a world I want to shut myself away from, with articles I did not want to read but, with headlines and photos, forced themselves on me [pictures of politicians, busi…
A technical paper (epistemology and probability) about the errors in the estimation of the error rate of an error rate of an error rate (and so forth) … FUKUSHIMA (still in DRAFT)www.fooledbyrandomness.com/errors.pdfhttp://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/…
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HatTip to Dave Lull!
Taleb: The events in the Middle East are not black swans. They were predictable to those who know the region well. At most, they were gray swans or perhaps white swans. One of the lessons of “Wild vs. Mild Random…
Friends, what should I do about all these “intellectuals” and journalists who write about “The Black Swan” without having read it? It is my duty to randomly expose fraudsters as a deterrent… Anything else? http://www.thenation.com/article/159728/swan…
The ultimate luxury is to never be in the same physical space with people you don’t like. (Commentary. 1) We are still extremely ill-adapted to disliking someone without attempting to kill him and harm ourselves …; 2) Idiots get wealthy but then star…
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Hope we can find an audio recording.
I thank those who came to Philadelphia for the lecture.
Thanks again for the help; added the second half to the chapter on iatrogenics…http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/AntiFragilityChapter8.pdf
Though black swans aren’t as rare as once thought, their symbolism is that of transformative occurrences, like 9/11. …
For those of you who may be in Philadelphia on TUESDAY, open lecture on ANTIFRAGILITY :http://www.sas.upenn.edu/ppe/Events/Goldstone/general.htmlSchool of Arts & Sciences – University of Pennsylvaniawww.sas.upenn.eduThe Goldstone Forum is an annual…
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