Monthly Archives: December 2010

My definition of fragility and antifragility lie in path dependence, the "ratchet" property and its nonlinearity: pass a certain level of stress, something irreversible takes place. What breaks doesn't return to its initial state. I get this from option theory as they are a certain form of CLIQUET options.

My definition of fragility and antifragility lie in path dependence, the “ratchet” property and its nonlinearity: pass a certain level of stress, something irreversible takes place. What breaks doesn’t return to its initial state. I get this from option theory as they are a certain form of CLIQUET options.

Robustness and Fragility by Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Wednesday 8th December 2010 – The Henry Jackson Society

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HatTip to Dave Lull

To prevent Black Swans from society, let me summarise two simple rules; one, do not give the manager of a nuclear plant an incentive bonus based on cost cutting; two, the captain goes down with his ship.  The first rule is about the avoidance of some risks and the second rule concerns the elimination of that form of capitalism that we have.  From that we can derive a whole host of heuristics.

If you let the system work itself, the giants will self destroy.  The regulations need to be done the right way.  The regulators in Basle are the ones who help bankers pile up risk.  We need regulations that help the small guy and help the economy to have protection against the risk takers.

COMMENT The Black Swan guy is back, and hes talking about you and me | 22122010 | Reactions – Global Insurance

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HatTip to Dave Lull

Every aphorism in the book is about a procrustean bed of sorts, he says in the book’s preface. “We humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific vocabularies, and prepackaged narratives, which, on the occasion, has explosive consequences.”

So much of what he says could be aimed directly at the insurance underwriter, the broker, the modeler, the investor, the corporate risk manager, and the chief executive.

In fact, try attributing each of these examples to any of the aforementioned people above:

To bankrupt a fool, give him information.

In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.

An erudite is someone who displays less than he knows; a journalist and consultant, the opposite; most others fall somewhere in between.

It is as difficult to avoid bugging others with advice on how to exercise and other health matters as it is to stick to an exercise schedule.

Randomness is indistinguishable from complicated, undetected, and undetectable order; but order itself is undistinguishable from artful randomness.